Fantasy Football Advice

Running back is the most volatile position and in dynasty leagues that can be scary.  As soon as a back reaches 30 they are sent off in a space ship to Vorgon 7, so you must draft some youngsters and then some youngster back-ups and then some 15 year old prodigy types.  A trade or injury can make an ok running back into a top ten running back in short order and the other into a short order cook.

Tier 1

1. Chris Johnson 25 — You know what he can do.

2. Adrian Peterson 25 — Purple Jesus can still raise the dead (he just has trouble holding onto the ball).

3. Maurice Jones Drew 25 — He’s got a nose for the goal line.

4. Ray Rice 23 — I’m not too worried about McGahee and these are Dynasty rankings we are talking bout.

Tier 2

5. Jamaal Charles 23 — Probably deserves Tier 1 status, but needs to perform for a whole year.

6. Rashard Mendenhall 23 — Young and the #1 on a good team.

7. Shonn Greene 25 — With Jones gone he could rush Rex Ryan’s weight in a single game.

8. Frank Gore 27 — Steady and versatile, but aging and injury prone.

9. Beanie Wells 22 — Hightower will be eating his dust.

10. Steven Jackson 27 — Will put up good numbers, but his team is an albatross around his neck.

Tier 3

11. Jonathan Stewart 23 — His age and ability trump his RBBC lot in life.

12. Michael Turner 28 — He can put up TD’s with the best of them.

13. Knowshon Moreno 23 — Didn’t overwhelm in his rookie season, but his situation is ripe for success.

14. DeAngelo Williams 27 –  He’s too good to knock down far even though he’s older than his RBBC pal.

Tier 4

15. Ryan Grant 27 — On a great offense.  Steady production.

16. Donald Brown 23 — RBBC for now, but youth always wins out.

17. Cedric Benson 27 — Bengals have become run first.

18. Pierre Thomas 25 — Just hope Payton gives him some goal line work.

19. Matt Forte 24 — Chester Taylor hurts him, but thankfully Taylor will be 31 this season.

20. Felix Jones 23 — Worried about his health, but see him getting the most numbers in cow town.

Tier 5

21. LeSean McCoy 22 — He’ll move up the ranks if the Eagles don’t grab a veteran.

22. Joseph Addai 27 — Has some productive committee years left.

23. Ahmad Bradshaw 24 — Jacobs and he were both injured, but he outplayed him.

24. Ronnie Brown 28 — He could slip further depending on how his injury looks, but he is an elite talent.

25. Justin Forsett 24 — Showed he was the best RB on the Seahawks last season.  If they don’t grab anyone else, he’ll be golden.

Tier 6

26. Brandon Jacobs 28 — I’m not a fan, but if he’s healthy he can get in the endzone.

27. Marshawn Lynch 24 — His age and past production make him hard to pass on.

28. Jerome Harrison 27 — I wanted to put him higher, but he’ll probably be in a committee.

29. Fred Jackson 29 — There’s a good chance he’ll get the bulk of the carries this season, but he is old (which makes me ancient).

Tier 7

30. Reggie Bush 25 — Reggie Bush type.

31. Darren Sproles 27 — Reggie Bush type, but older.

32. Darren McFadden 23 — Lots of talent, but is on a bad team and might be a Reggie Bush type.

33. Kevin Smith 23 — His injuries and inability to run well are worrisome, but he has time for redemption.

34. Marion Barber 27 — Most Barbarians have short life spans.

Tier 8

35. Michael Bush 26 — Could end up being the starter on a bad team.

36. Thomas Jones 32 — Doesn’t get hurt so should have a year or two left.  Depends on the team he winds up on.

37. Laurence Maroney 25 — Had a great stretch last season.  Still young.

38. Tashard Choice 25 — Barber is declining.  Jones is injury prone.

39. Chester Taylor 31 — Role is undefined now in Chicago, but he could do some things in a Martz offense.

40. Steve Slaton 24 — Had a great rookie season.  Has skills.  Benched. Is hurt. Flier.

Tier 9

41. Leon Washington 28 — Looks like he’ll be ready to go all season in a run first offense.

42. Tim Hightower 24 — Still young, but will be a Beanie back-up.

43. LenDale White 25 — A bit risky, but anywhere other than behind CJ will help him.

44. Willis McGahee 28 — Staying in Baltimore will hurt his value.

45. Ricky Williams 33 — Should get you one more productive year.

46. Carnell Williams 28 — Lasted all last season.  Probably won’t this season.

47. Arian Foster 24 — He showed some awesomeness, but the Texans are looking at RB’s in the draft.

Tier 10

48. James Davis 24 — Young and will compete with Jerome Harrison for the starting job.

49. Bernard Scott 26 — If Benson goes down he would easily take up the slack.

50. Lex Hilliard 26 — Ricky is old. Ronnie is oldish/injuryish.

51. Jerious Norwood 27 — Turner has had a lot of carries.  Norwood should be healthy.

52. Larry Johnson 30 — I don’t like him, but he could start for the Native Americans.

53. LaDainian Tomlinson 31 — Should hook up with a new team.  A lot depends on that team.

54. Glen Coffee 23 — Gore is injury prone.

55. Rashad Jennings 25 — Just has MJD blocking him.

56. Derrick Ward 30 — Will be in the mix, but the recipe is bland.

57. Maurice Morris 30 — Might, might, be a starter if the Lions are dumb.

58. Correl Buckhalter 31 — Should still be the #2 in the mountains, but old.

Tier 11

59. Tyrell Sutton 23 — A good change of pace back that could flourish with an opportunity.

60. Mike Goodson 23 — See above.

61. Mike Bell 27 — Should find a team and his value will depend on that team

62. Chris Jennings 24 — Slim chance to get into the mix after Harrison and Davis.

63. Jason Snelling 26 — Norwood was hurt much of last season so Snelly got the work.

64. Larod Stephens-Howling 23 — Has the ability to be a Reggie Bush type.

65. Javon Ringer 23 — Would probably pick up the reps if CJ goes down as long as White is gone.

66. Brian Westbrook 31 — If he hooks up with the right team and looks healthy I could see moving him up a little, but I’m not taking him.

updated 3/13/10

Yeah, I know the joke has run its course, but I’m moving forward with the theory that “Watchu Talkin’ ‘Bout Willis” is now so lame that it is super cool.  So now that we have that out of the way, lets actually talk ’bout Willis and what is going to happen to him.  McGahee is due 3.6 million dollars next season, which is a bit steep for a back up back.  To continue playing with the Ravens he would most likely need to take a pay cut, which, after the season he just had, I doubt he’ll do.

Let’s look at his numbers from 2009 (yes, that’s last year, stop writing 09 on stuff).  The most promising numbers for his pocket book are his 14 touchdowns and his lofty 5.0 yards per carry. He only had 544 yards rushing, but that could be in his favor, not getting the wear and tear on his surgically repaired body. He was on his way to a possible career year when he was Ray Riced by Ray Rice.  I think this should be made into a nationally recognized term because it’s not often that a player is supplanted by anyone after scoring 5 TD’s in the first 3 games! But it was clear that Rice was the younger, more skilled back, but it was also clear that McGahee still has something left in the tank.  So where is he going to take that full tank next season?

Let’s take a look at the leading candidates as far as needs go:

1. Washington: The new coach in town has omnipotent power in D.C. so if he wants McGahee it shall be done.  But do they need him?  Much depends on if Clinton Portis can prove to his old coach that he also still has something left in the tank even though it looks as if his tank is rusted and he leaves oil stains wherever he sits for more than a few minutes.  With Portis’ work ethic, this seasons’ concussion, and his many injuries the Skins could have him towed away this off season.  The rest of the possibilities aren’t really possibilities. Ladell Betts is most likely done due to his age and multiple knee injuries and Quinton Ganther and Rock Cartwright barely are good enough to play on special teams.  Dan Snyder loves throwing money at players and if Shanahan says boo, McGahee has a good shot at being a Redskin next season.

2. San Diego: This game is tough on running backs and even though L.T. is one of the greatest of all time, his days in San diego are numbered.  With a base salary of 5 million and a 2 million dollar option bonus if he stays with the team in 2010, the 3.3 yards per carry Tomlinson is gone.  Nobody in San Diego believes that Darren Sproles can be an every down back so they will be looking in free agency and in the draft. McGahee makes sense because the Bolts still have a team that is primed for a run at the Super Bowl next season and there is a chance that McGahee only has one good year left.

3. Detroit: The Lions have lost faith in Kevin Smith (I agree, that dudes’ movies have gone downhill!) and depending on how severe his injuries are he may not even be ready for the beginning of next season.  Maurice Morris made a good effort at the end of the season, but he is not a starting running back in this league.  The Lions are a young team and McGahee probably doesn’t have much time left in the NFL.  Do they pay him just to help them win one or two extra games at most or do they go younger?  The draft isn’t stacked at running back, but there are 4-5 backs that could turn out to be starters.  They should probably worry about grabbing one of them instead of McGahee.

4. New England: Bill Belichick loves his old running backs.  Kevin Faulk and Fred Taylor could be gone and that would leave Sammy Morris and Laurence Maroney.  I believe Belichick will be interested in him, but McGahee might want a more stable starting job and more money than the Patriots will be willing to pay him.  I just believe San Diego and Washington are more desperate than the Pats.

5. Houston: The Texans may have found their man in Arian Foster, but he is no sure thing.  Steve Slaton has probably lost his job to Foster and if he’s lucky he’ll be the third down back.  Texans beat writer John McClain (who was either in Die Hard or ran for President, I’m not sure) believes they will grab a RB in the draft.  They are stacked in the passing game and if they can find that running back to grab those tough yards they could do something next year.  It’s a long shot, but the Texans will take a look at McGahee.

6. Tampa Bay: Derrick Ward, Cadillac Williams and Earnest Graham aren’t starting running backs in the NFL.  Yes, Caddy had a great comeback year, but in reality he still averaged under 4 yards a carry and eeked out just over 800 yards.  Even though he played in every game he still lived on the injury report with his pals Ward and Graham.  The Bucs aren’t built to win next season so I doubt they will go after McGahee, but they are going to need a running back if they want to contend in the next hundred years or so.

In conclusion, draft Ray Rice!!  Yes, McGahee leaving would be huge for Rice.  I don’t want to see Rice top 300 rushing attempts, but I do want to see him get into the end zone more next season.  With McGahee gone, McClain could see some of those goal line looks, but Rice will no doubt be more productive.

McGahee’s value will depend on his situation next season.  With San Diego he would be in a great situation to score and in Washington he would see a lot of touches as long as Portis is gone.  If I were Willis those would be my choices and I think in fantasy he could be very usable.  His injury history would make him risky, but if he’s a starter, you have to grab him at some point.

Yesterday was full of big time players having big time games.  If you had those big time players on your team you are feeling really good today, if you went against them, you are cussing your dog. Here are some of the high and low lights from yesterday.

It is fun watching Chris Johnson go all Tecmo Bowl Jackson on everyone if you own him or aren’t playing against him on your fantasy team or you happen to like the Titans.  I can’t give you any interesting analysis accept to say that Johnson will most likely be the #1 player to go in most drafts next year, which means he’ll have a down season.

Brandon Marshall: He broke T.O.’s single game 20 reception record with 21 which was 15 more completions than the whole Browns’ team, actually more completions than 18 teams.  I think this means he is good.

Desean Jackson: Long Division Jackson went off on the Giants last night to the tune of 178 yards receiving, 1 touchdown and one punt return for a touchdown.  The man has speed to spare, but he ain’t gonna share!

Ray Rice: The Pocket Mighty Hercules Mouse does it again.  He had 203 total yards and a touchdown at halftime! Sadly Daunte Culpepper shouldn’t really be playing football anymore and Rice got a lot of the 2nd half to catch up on his sudoku. He’s now easily a top 5 draft pick next year.

Andre Johnson: Matt Schaub had over 330 yards before half and AJ had done most of his damage before half as well, ending with 11 receptions, 193 yards and 2 touchdowns. They get St. Louis next week.  Hope that they aren’t sat before half time.

Kevin Smith: He looks like he’ll be done for the year with torn ligaments in his knee.  Maurice Morris will probably get most of his work, but since you are in the playoffs you probably have a good enough team that you don’t need Mo Mo.  I really had high hopes for Smith this year.  He has to go on my top 10, 2009 all disappointment team.

Fred Davis: He had 3 receptions for 50 yards and 2 touchdowns.  I had Davis as a bust since the Raiders hadn’t given up a touchdown to a tight end all season.  They have now given up 2.  If he is a free agent he is worth grabbing, especially if you have Dallas Clark who might not play much in week 16.

Keith Null: With the amount of interceptions he threw (5) his performance was worse than null.  If only they could void the whole team while playing Steven Jackson they might have a chance.

Jason Campbell: He is coming around.  Even traveling cross country and playing in the black hole behind a horrible offensive line wouldn’t deter him.  They get the Giants awful pass defense next week.  You may see him on some sleeper lists.

JaMarcus Russell: He came in after Gradkowski was hurt and then for some reason the Redskins extended their lead.  Russell is a dead albatross hanging around the Raiders’ metaphorical neck and he is getting all gross and rotten.

Steven Jackson: He hasn’t been practicing because of his herniated disc, but he has been able to perform on Sundays.  Those days may be behind him and his fantasy owners.  With his back and Null voiding out his effectiveness, it may be time to start questioning if you should start him or not.

Randy Moss: He looked a little like the Raiders version of Randy Moss and if you own him he hurt your team on Sunday and probably your playoff hopes. You still play him, but you are not happy!

Jamaal Charles: I just have to give him his due again.  He knocked off a 76 yard touchdown run and looked like he had a couple extra gears.  Todd has been too embarrassed to call me since I have been bugging him to start JC from day one.

Eddie Royal: He had 1 catch for 3 yards while watching Brandon Marshall targeted 27 times.  This is the same guy who returned 2 kicks for touchdowns in one game this season.  Why not throw him the ball? Drop him if for some reason you haven’t yet.

Antonio Bryant: He was shut down by Revis as suspected, but gets Seattle next week.  That’s the same team that just gave up 193 yards and 2 touchdowns to Andre Johnson.  You need to get him in your lineup next week.

Chris Brown: He lost a goal line carry to Ryan Moats.  Drop him! Moats and now Arian Foster are getting most of the work. I didn’t get to see Foster run, but I heard he looked pretty good.  This RBBC is painful to dissect, but Moats lost a fumble and you know how much Kubiak likes that.  I would stay away unless you are desperate.

Reggie Bush: He touched the ball 12 times which is the first time he has gone over 10 since week 3.  Of course he scored twice on those 12 touches.  He is infuriating, just like the whole Saints backfield.  Who dat? I really don’t know!

Marshawn Lynch: He had another good game, but is still backing up Fred Jackson.  They were both usable against the Chiefs, but they don’t get to play the Chiefs every week.

Sunday 1 PM

New Orleans (24^th) @ Atlanta (18^th)

Judging from his past performances Pierre Thomas is either going to have a monster game or score about 3 points. Unfortunately you have to start him. Reggie Bush will be back in action and is a must start in PPR. Mike Bell continues to be the goal line back and “closer” so put him in your lineup in deeper leagues. All three of these players get an upgrade against the battered and ineffective Falcons defense.

Saints: Thomas +2, Bush +2, Bell +2

Neither of these backs are doing enough right now to be in your lineup. Jerious Norwood was a huge disappointment for Fantasy owners last Sunday. With Ryan likely out again the Falcons will have to lean on their running game and the Saints haven’t been that stout to begin with. I am giving both of these players an upgrade for the matchup but I would look for better options unless you’re really stuck.

Falcons: Norwood +1, Snelling +1

NY Jets (8^th) @Tampa Bay (29^th)

This matchup should be a feast for the Jets ground game, especially with Mark Sanchez out. Look for Thomas Jones to have a monster outing. Shonn Greene is a definite start unless you don’t have room for him in your lineup.

Jets: Jones +5, Greene +5

Cadillac Williams could be a starter for you in non PPR but I’d look for better options. Derrick Ward is simply overpaid and a disappointment of epic proportions to Fantasy owners.

Buccaneers: Williams -2, Ward -4

Miami (21^st) @ Jacksonville (14^th)

Ricky Williams was surprisingly unproductive last week. Lex Hilliard still hasn’t emerged in to the type of Fantasy player we expected thus far. Ricky is a must start but here’s some whacky numbers for you (courtesy of Doc): The Jaguars haven’t given up more than 77 rushing yards to ANY running back this season other than Chris Johnson; he has gone for 83 and 228 yards against them, respectively. Maybe Ricky can buck this trend but it’s definitely grounds for being nervous.

Dolphins: Williams -1, Hilliard -2

The Dolphins seem like a team that’s really good against the run but they aren’t. At the end of the day it doesn’t really matter anyway because you’re playing MJD regardless.

Jaguars: Jones-Drew +2

Cincinnati (2^nd) @Minnesota (1^st)

So this Sunday we’ll have the leagues two best rush defenses AND the leagues two worst rush defenses over the past six weeks going head to head. Weird. Cedric Benson got his usual heavy workload last Sunday after coming back from injury and put up solid digits. I’m personally going to start him regardless of the matchup. EJ Henderson, the Vikings star linebacker was injured last week and their defense could suffer because of it. Larry Johnson is unstartable in this game.

Bengals: Benson -3, Johnson -5

Adrian Peterson has sat out and rested up this week in practice after being held to only 19 yards on 13 carries against the Cardinals. He’s such a competitor you’d think he’d be poised for a bounce back game but it’s going to be tough to do against the stingy Bengals. Chester Taylor is a PPR fill in, as usual.

Vikings: Peterson -3, Taylor -1

Seattle (16^th) @ Houston (19^th)

Julius Jones is horrible and he makes me angry. Jim Mora needs to wake up and realize what the entire football world already knows- Forsett’s a lot better than Julius Jones. If you own Jones bench him even if he starts. If you own Forsett pay attention to the rumor mill (and Razzball, on Sunday) to see if it looks like he’ll get more touches this week.

Seahawks: Jones -1, Forsett 0

Slaton going on IR is a real sledgehammer. I can definitely see Ryan Moats becoming the feature back and having a ton of value in PPR especially down the stretch. Chris Brown is basically a poor man’s Brandon Jacobs but that’s not necessarily a bad thing. Brown is a must start but I would take a wait and see approach with Moats.

Texans: Brown +2, Moats +1

Buffalo (32^nd) @ Kansas City (31^st)

Coach Fewell reiterated that Fred Jackson will be the lead back going forward. Don’t expect a ton of opportunities for Marshawn Lynch in general but consider him a possible Sleeper next season depending on who he signs with. This game presents a bit of a quandary because the matchup is so good; start Lynch unless you have better running backs.

Bills: Jackson +3, Lynch +2

Jamaal Charles is a total stud at this point. If you were cagey (or just followed our advice this season) and grabbed him chances are you’re in the mix to win your league. This matchup is fantastic for him and the guys behind him can’t stay healthy so the carries should remain his. If you’re in a Keeper league you’re probably already looking forward to next season.

Chiefs: Charles +5

Green Bay (3^rd) @ Chicago (28^th)

You bore me, Ryan Grant. Just felt like throwing that out there. The Chicago defense has gone from “not as good as we thought/declining” to “horrible.” I hate to say it but Grant is a tremendous play for you on Sunday unless Lovey Smith finds a time machine in the next few days .

Packers: Grant +4

Matt Forte…. blah… I would honestly sit him this week in non PPR and consider doing so even in PPR formats. I’m sure you’ve been inundated by sportscasters about how good Green Bay’s defense is so I won’t go on and on about that. The Bears wilt in the face of any respectable defense so expect a complete meltdown from their offense in this contest.

Bears: Forte -5

Detroit (17^th) @Baltimore (11^th)

Kevin Smith was the only Detroit running back to touch the football against the Bengals and Jim Schwartz was showering him with compliments the way old, creepy men do to girls at Hooters. So even though the Ravens aren’t total pushovers I’d still expect a good game out of Smith. With Stafford and Johnson back this offense is starting to click.

Lions: Smith +1

A few weeks ago it looked like Ray Rice could be the second best running back to own in Fantasy down the stretch. That was when he was getting all the carries, including the ones on the goal line, however. People try to downgrade the importance of that but it’s HUGE. It doesn’t mean he’s not a stud anymore, he still is. But it does pull him out of the Steven Jackson, Chris Johnson territory.  He should be solid in this matchup. Willis McGahee, now receiving the goal line touches, is a potential start now depending on the matchup. In non PPR (or PPR, depending on the depth of your league) you can put him in your lineup and still look at yourself in the mirror.

Ravens: Rice +2, McGahee +3

Carolina (23^rd) @ New England (13^th)

DeAngelo Williams was a surprise inactive last Sunday. He is practicing this week and is allegedly fully healthy. Jonathon Stewart will return to his role as change of pace/goal line back; start him if he’s better than the rest but don’t let last week’s performance affect your decision. New England’s run defense is about as middle of the road as it gets.

Panthers: Williams 0, Stewart 0

By next week these two might be flipped around on the depth chart. In my .5 PPR league Maroney’s projected for an optimistic 12.92 against Carolina on Sunday. I happen to own him in that league and will probably end up sitting him. Both he and Morris could negate each other’s value going forward because it’s impossible to predict who is going to touch the ball when. Bill Belichick is annoying.

Patriots: Maroney 0, Morris 0

Denver (25^th) @ Indianapolis (15^th)

I know you’re going to be tempted to start Buckhalter this Sunday coming off his 113 yard performance but keep in mind he only got 12 carries and that number’s not likely increase. Knowshon Moreno will be a must start week in and week out regardless.

Broncos: Moreno 0, Buckhalter 0

Donald Brown’s injury troubles have boosted Addai’s value even further- now he is getting all sorts of additional rushing yardage/goal line carries we didn’t expect him to. He is truly one of the most underappreciated backs in Fantasy this season. Expect his usual studly output in this game.

Colts: Addai +2

Sunday 4 PM

Washington (20^th) @ Oakland (27^th)

In “Sleeper Math” two weeks ago I told everyone to pick up Ganther if you had room on your roster and I have continued to tout him. On Wednesday the Redskins announced that Ganther, not Rock Cartwright, will be the starter. He did a lot with the opportunities he was given before so I expect a big game out of him on Sunday. Start him wherever possible. Cartwright becomes a stash yet again even though the Raiders are a poor rush defense.

Redskins: Ganther +3, Cartwright +1

Albert Haynesworth is an almost guaranteed scratch for the Redskins this Sunday which bodes well for the Raiders running game. Fargas had 15 carries to McFadden’s 9 last week and has retained his grasp on the starting job. This matchup is attractive enough to tout Fargas as a #2 RB start and McFadden as a flex in deeper leagues.

Raiders: Fargas +3, McFadden +3

St. Louis (30^th) @ Tennessee (12^th)

Steven Jackson hardly practiced the last two weeks before games but he’s averaging almost 120 yards per game; thus I wouldn’t be concerned whatsoever that he’s being held out of practice yet again this week. He gets a slight downgrade for matchup but SJax is a quality RB #1 every week no matter what.

Rams: Jackson -1

I’m done with LenDale White until next season when he signs with a different team. Chris Johnson’s projections are almost 30 in PPR leagues- he could singlehandedly win for you this week.

Titans: Johnson +5

San Diego (7^th) @ Dallas (5^th)

The Chargers have moved the ball with ease against everyone this season so I doubt the Cowboys will be able to slow them down much. Tomlilnson gets a downgrade because the matchup is less juicy than average but he’s still a very solid play. Sproles shouldn’t be in your lineup unless it’s uber deep PPR.

Chargers: Tomlinson -3, Sproles -4

Marion Barber is annoying to own (I’m glad I don’t). You used to be able to count on him for yards and hope for touchdowns. Now he’s basically a rich man’s Willis McGahee and that’s a total kick in the junk considering he was draft in the 2^nd or 3^rd round in all leagues. You have to play him no matter what though. I would sit Felix Jones against the Chargers; if he doesn’t break off a huge TD run he kills your team.

Cowboys: Barber -2, Jones -3

Sunday Night Game

Philadelphia (9^th) @ NY Giants (6^th)

Earlier in the week there was optimism that Brian Westbrook would play against the Giants but not it’s an almost certainty that he won’t. LeSean McCoy continues to disappoint and make me look like a liar. The Giants defense is tougher than most to boot. Even so, you still have to start him.

Eagles: McCoy -3, Westbrook (probably won’t play)

Speaking of disappointing players…. Brandon Jacobs finally had the big game we’d been waiting for. There won’t be a ton of yardage for him in this contest but an end zone trip wouldn’t surprise me. Bradshaw’s still not getting off the bench on any team I own him in.

Giants: Jacobs -2, Bradshaw -3

Monday Night Game

Arizona (26^th) @ San Francisco (10^th)

Beanie continues to get the majority of the non goal line carries and will be useful in games down the stretch, just not this one. Yes, that means sit him. In PPR formats Tim Hightower’s still a flex play in my book this week.

Cardinals: Wells -3, Hightower -1

The 49’ers look to pound the ground game regardless of matchup but this week they should rely on it even more; expect 30+ touches from Gore and a very juicy stat line. If the Cardinals dominate time of possession it could diminish his digits but I still love the matchup.

49’ers: Gore +3

Editors note: I’d like to thank Jen for joining the Razzball team.  We might have to take the pinball machine out of the women’s bathroom at Razzball headquarters! Follow her insightful twitter comments here.

QB: START: Joe Flacco (v. DET): I know, he’s been an overall fantasy disappointment the last few weeks, especially given his great start to the season. His three interceptions in primetime Monday night were atrocious, along with penalties galore, made for an ugly performance. But the Ravens, especially Flacco, have the chance to redeem themselves this week with a matchup against a weak Detroit defense. With Flacco most likely eager to right all his wrongs from Monday night, and with the Ravens trying to stay in playoff contention, expect him to have a much better showing this week against the Lions.

Other starts: Ben Roethlisberger (@CLE), Vince Young (@StL), Kurt Warner (v. SF), Philip Rivers (@DAL), Tony Romo (v.SD), David Garrard (v.MIA), Chad Henne (@JAX)

SIT: Jay Cutler (v. GB): This is probably obvious, but I would like to essentially nip in the bud anyone’s idea of possibly thinking about starting him after not throwing picks last week. Chances are, you have a better option available for picking up. Keep in mind that last week, Cutler played the lowly Rams, and the overall game plan was very cautious, mostly looking to Forte and the run in the red zone (because we know Jay Cutler is the King of the Red Zone Interception). Against a Green Bay defense who played quite well against Baltimore and held the running game in check and pulled down three picks, an unreliable Cutler is not a smart start.

SIT: Whoever is the QB on Sunday for the Falcons (most likely Matt Ryan): Plainly and simply, Sunday will not be a great situation for whichever quarterback is under center. If it is Matt Ryan, there are reports out saying that his turf toe is not completely healed, and that he will probably not be playing at his best if and when going against the Saints. With the Saints narrowly avoiding devastating embarrassment last week against the Redskins, I’m sure they will not want to sweat another one out like that again this week. Already a borderline start just simply based on injury, with Roddy White also not at 100%, and a once-strong running game down the tubes, the Saints look that much closer to the perfect season. And, if Chris Redman starts, there’s not much I need to write here that should deter you from starting him. Quite frankly,  the thought should have never crossed your mind. Overall, the QB position (whoever has it) this week for the Falcons should be on your bench.

Other sits: Matt Moore (@NE), Kyle Orton (@IND)

RB: START: Kevin Smith (@BAL): While Kevin Smith is generally productive every week, this looks like it could be a particularly productive week for him. Although Baltimore does have a stout defense, they have been known to give up a few rushing yards here and there. Plus, with Matthew Stafford sitting this one out, the more cautious approach with Culpepper at QB would be to hand off to Smith as much as possible.

START: Fred Jackson (@KC): Since FJax has officially moved ahead of Marshawn Lynch on the Buffalo depth chart, he is primed to have a great game for two reasons: 1)Kansas City’s defense, which is ranked 31st in the league and 2) a poor performance against the Jets last week, which should motivate him to bring his A game to keep his new starting spot. This game in general should be very heavy on the run, with both teams notorious for having porous rushing defenses and relatively unproven quarterbacks. So, in that case, also start Jamaal Charles (who is not on the KC injury report).

START: LaDainian Tomlinson (@DAL): Last week, the Cowboys faced a Giants’ running game that was depleted with injuries and had been struggling for weeks. Brandon Jacobs, who has been a disappointment to fantasy owners this season, caught and ran for the longest reception of his career, scored 2 TDs, and had many productive runs. Ahmad Bradshaw, who has two sprained ankles and cracked bones in his feet, even managed to grab some first downs against a Cowboys defense that typically falls short in the twelfth month of the year. That all being said, I think LT is primed for a good week this week.

Other starts: Chris Johnson (duh! @StL) , Thomas Jones (@TB),  Laurence Maroney (v.CAR), Maurice-Jones Drew (v. MIA), Quinton Ganther (@OAK)

SIT: Brandon Jacobs (v.PHI): I know I just praised his Week 13 performance, but it was just that; in Week 13. Do not expect that explosive of a performance again against Philadelphia. While chances are he will get a decent amount of carries, what he will do with them will probably not be much. Last time the Giants played the Eagles was a total disaster, and Kevin Gilbride, Giants’ offensive coordinator, rarely calls appropriate plays for what Jacobs is good at and has been calling too many passing plays. Overall, it will probably be a mediocre performance for Jacobs at best on Sunday night.

Other sits: Cedric Benson (@MIN), Julius Jones (v.HOU), Cadillac Williams/Derrick Ward (v.NYJ)

WR: START: DeSean Jackson (@NYG): Though this is obvious, some may be concerned with Jackson’s possible post-concussion symptoms. He has assured that he is fine and playing on Sunday (although keep an eye for any change just to be safe). While generally, the Giants do cover him with the very capable Corey Webster, the rest of the Giants secondary probably will not do as good a job covering him, especially with safety C.C. Brown occasionally having to take on that task. Last time the Giants played the Eagles, C.C. Brown was basically responsible for the blown coverage on every receiving touchdown, and later publicly blamed himself for it. Plus, if the Giants defend against the run as well as they did against the Cowboys last week, chances are McNabb will have to pass. So, have no worries about starting DJax.

START: Santonio Holmes (@CLE): With Hines Ward likely out, and no defenders on the secondary for Cleveland to speak of, Santonio stands to get targeted quite a bit Thursday night. He should, by default (if he’s not already) become the Steelers’ #1 WR. This also increases the value of Mike Wallace, particularly as a WR3 in deep leagues or as a flex.

START: Pierre Garcon (v.DEN): Chances are, Champ Bailey will have his work cut out for him with Reggie Wayne. With Garcon being targeted so frequently last week against the Titans, look for that again. Austin Collie also becomes a viable starter as well.

Other starts: Jeremy Maclin (@NYG), Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin (v.SF), Robert Meacham/Marques Colston (@ATL), Chris Chambers (@BUF), Terrell Owens (v. KC),

SIT: The Seahawks WRs (Burleson and Houshmanzadeh): With Matt Hasselbeck’s value on the decline, and the emergence of Justin Forsett in the running game, the Seattle receivers have not been having great weeks as of late. The Texans have also emerged as a somewhat strong defense, and are in in the Top 15 as far as guarding fantasy WRs as well as pass rush. Therefore, don’t expect big days from Nate Burleson or T.J. Houshmanzadeh.

SIT: Antonio Bryant (v. NYJ): Two words: Darrelle Revis.

Other sits: Devin Hester/Earl Bennett (v. GB),  Santana Moss (@OAK)

TE: START: Todd Heap: With majority of Joe Flacco’s targets going toward Heap, combined with the amount of drops and offensive pass interference calls from some of his other WRs, the Ravens will probably send the ball Heap’s way again against the Lions.

Other TE starts: Vernon Davis (@ARI), Brent Celek (@NYG), Kellen Winslow (v.NYJ)

SIT: Greg Olsen (v.GB): I think that you probably realize that by now, I’m very down on the Bears. With Cutler and Forte both struggling, don’t expect much to go on, especially against Green Bay with the Packers wanting a wild card spot and playing a division rival. Olson has been rendered ineffective in many a game this season despite being Cutler’s favorite target. Expect this week to be no different.

DEF: START: NYJ (@TB): With Josh Freeman’s interception filled game last week, expect a strong Jets’ secondary to dismantle Freeman and Tampa Bay.

START: TEN (@StL): Again, probably does not require much of an explanation. Kyle Boller is awful, and with the re-emergence of the Titans in general and the return of their cornerbacks, expect low scoring from the Rams and the opportunity for interceptions.

SIT: SD (@DAL): Tony Romo had a strong game against the Giants last week, put up a lot of points, but still the Cowboys lost. Expect a strong showing from Romo again and expect that this game will probably be a shootout.