Fantasy Football Advice

Sunday’s finally here! To start things off we have our “Matchup Savers,” players that you can start today if you’re in a pinch due to the bye week, injuries, etc. I do all of this within the context of 12 team leagues that are competitive. Often there will be more talented/valuable players than these available- take them unless you are really enamored with a certain matchup.

Week 5 Matchup Savers

Quarterback:

Shaun Hill- The 49’ers are facing a relatively soft Houston defense. Hopefully Frank Gore will come back healthy and take some pressure off Hill. It will be interesting to see how Crabtree plays. Hill had a few really solid games early on in the season and I think he has some more left in him.

Chad Henne- The Dolphins are going to have their hands full with New Orleans this week. If they get behind they will be forced to throw the football and that bodes well for Henne’s fantasy numbers. He has looked surprisingly good out there.

This is it for guys that are probably on your waiver wire with favorable matchups for the week. Usually there are a few more but if one of these two isn’t available you’re not going to like what else is out there!

Running Back:

Justin Fargas- He shouldn’t be available in your league since he’s a starter but he might be. The matchup against the Jets isn’t too bad either. They just lost Jenkins for the season and that is going to wreak havoc on their ability to stop the run.

Kevin Faulk- (for PPR) Sammy Morris has been ruled out for this game so maybe Faulk will get a few more touches in there. He is basically a lock for 5 points with upside to get you 15.

Jamaal Charles- The Chiefs are playing the Chargers, a team that has a prolific offense but a suspect run defense. If the Chiefs are smart they’ll run the ball heavily which bodes well for Charles getting some carries. I would expect 10-15 total touches from him.

Brandon Jackson- As Doc alluded to in his column the Packers appear to be weighing their options at RB. Not good if you own Ryan Grant. Jackson might get an opportunity to showcase his skills.

Wide Receiver

Austin Collie- He’s probably not available in your league, but if he is, grab him and throw him in there against St. Louis; you have to love the entire Colts offense in this game.

Michael Jenkins- Should be available in most leagues. He has solid projections for this week.

Davone Bess- I really like him going forward. The Dolphins are going to have to throw the football in this game and he should benefit from that.

Greg Camarillo- See Davone Bess above.

David Clowney- With Cotchery out Clowney is the default #2. Edwards should get blanketed all game, freeing Clowney up for some opportunities.

Mark Bradley- It’s not that I love him or his matchup that much but he’s a #2 Wide Receiver and the Chargers will definitely be keying in on Dwayne Bowe.

Tight End

Anthony Fasano- I like the Dolphins wide receivers because I think they’ll have to throw the football and I’m going with the same logic for Fasano this week.

Benjamin Watson- You have to love anyone on the offensive side of the football for New England this week with the cupcake matchup against the Buccaneers looming.

Kevin Boss- I am not totally crazy about KB necessarily but we’re talking about spot starting tight ends here.

Randy McMichael- Going along the same theme of “his team will be getting slaughtered and will have to throw the football.”

D/ST

Indianapolis- I wish instead of picking a team defense you could pick against a certain teams offense for the season. I would have taken “any defense playing against St. Louis” in like the 3^rd round.

Buffalo- The Bills are not a very good defense so it wouldn’t surprise me if the Panthers lit them up. That being said Carolina is a turnover factory and that’s the big thing I look for in matchups.

Dallas- I’m not excited about this matchup against Atlanta but in every fantasy league there are idiots who hoard defenses, leaving very undesirable ones on the wire.

Alright so now it’s time for our watch list of players to either trade and get or look to unload from our teams depending on what happens this weekend.

Buy High

Adrian Peterson- Sometimes you have to state the obvious. Purple Jesus is a beast, flat out. If his owner is struggling with depth you might be able to get in him in a 2 for 1, 3 for 2, or some other multi-player deal. I am not a big advocate of trading for stud running backs in general because of the injury factor but there are exceptions to every rule.

Ronnie Brown- He has a very good chance of finishing in the top 5 in Fantasy this season. I would rather own him than any of the backs that were first round choices this year except AP. Doc predicted that he would be huge this season but I wasn’t as bullish; I didn’t draft him on any of my teams and now I wish I had listened.

Larry Fitzgerald- I called ESPN out a few weeks ago when they ran this column about how Larry Fitz isn’t the stud he was before because there are too many other guys in Arizona and blah, blah, blah. This is the guy, right here that is going to carry you in the playoffs this season. This is the Cardinals schedule:  @Detroit in week 15 then home against St. Louis in week 16! Are you kidding me?

Philip Rivers- Such a stud. I know there’s not a lot of trading that takes place involving the elite quarterbacks unless you’re in a 2 QB league but if you need to shore yourself up there I would definitely take a look at Rivers.

Brandon Marshall- He is going to put up super-elite WR digits from here on out and his acquisition cost is substantially less than the other guys on this level like Fitz and Andre Johnson.

Reggie Wayne- I loves me some Reggie Wayne. Week in and week out he’s going to give you double digits or more. Defenses know they can’t just load up to try and shut down Wayne because Manning will gauge them elsewhere.

Sell High

Thomas Jones- His production has been so big that everyone is starting to overlook the mileage on him. There’s no reason why you shouldn’t be able to get something really valuable in trade and I would take it just to eliminate risk.

Steve Smith (NYG) – I would only trade him if someone’s willing to give you good value. He is obviously way better than his preseason ranking but I just don’t believe that he’ll finish the season leading the league in receptions and yards. In a keeper league with retention costs you have to hold on to him though.

Aaron Rodgers- The offensive line issue is just too scary in Green Bay. It’s too bad because this is one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL. The odds of him getting injured are huge unless they are able to protect him better. He also has a very, very tough fantasy playoff schedule.

Hines Ward- He has been a steady, productive fantasy receiver for years. He has been so huge this season, benefiting from the pass happy Steelers offense. The problem is Mike Tomlin may seek to balance things out more and they also have two other really good young receivers in Pittsburgh.

Buy Low

Anquan Boldin- It looks like he won’t  play this week. Above, I discussed the ridiculously easy schedule for the Cardinals during the fantasy playoffs. Boldin always seems to be battling injuries but he is a warrior- he will fight through it and be productive.

Jerome Harrison- It is only a matter of time before Jamal Lewis gets hurt again or is completely useless. Harrison is the guy in Cleveland; maybe I’ll turn out to be wrong on this one but I’m taking a stand.

Calvin Johnson- He’s on a bye week, and that’s after missing last week’s game due to injury. Both he and Stafford should be back after this. There are no guarantees that he will deliver like he did last year but you have to take chances to win and if you’re going to take a chance this is the guy to do it on.

Jerricho Cotchery- He is going to miss this Sunday’s game. I still love him relative to value right now because of the “Braylon Edwards Effect” that I have talked about in previous columns. Mark Sanchez will improve over the course of the season and I see Cotchery posting several double-digit games.

Sell Low

Ryan Grant- I talked about this situation above when I touted Brandon Jackson. Grant’s days as the feature back in Green Bay might be numbered. He could turn it around and hold on to his job but I would trade him now while you can still get good value for him.

Larry Johnson- He’ll be on here all season just to remind all of his owners that you’re playing with fire by not dealing him. The production has been decent this season- don’t get greedy!

Clinton Portis- see Larry Johnson

Willis McGahee- For non-PPR this is a little bit different since touchdown vultures are a lot more valuable. But in PPR get rid of him and get whatever you can out of the deal.

Marion Barber- Injured running backs are terrifying to me. His value has plummeted significantly but if he stays relatively healthy there might be a good game in his future. Once that happens you’d better ship him out.

Terrell Owens- I may just have him in this category until the trade deadline!

We have a new addition to “Game Day Companion” that should help your team out some weeks.  I have been talking about Bye weeks a lot lately. There are times when you have multiple players out and you have to start players you normally would not consider. Then you have injuries that can wreak havoc on your roster.

What we’re going to do each Sunday, in addition to our extensive tiered buy-sell list, is to talk about players at each position who you can spot start for today if you’re really stuck. We are focusing on fringe-type players that are likely free agents in your league. I’m not going to tell you to pick up Ahmad Bradshaw, LeSean McCoy, or other players who have no business being on the wire. Enjoy! (more…)

Michael Vick – News out of Iggles camp is QB?/WR?/RB?/Felon will play in the first 3 quarters of the Eagles’ next preseason game. Earlier, Andy Reid claimed he’d play Vick at quarterback in the 4th quarter, so it appears we’ll get to see Vick lining up somewhere other than at QB. Fantasy impact? Dunno. Should you take flier in your drafts? Dunno. Will I? Yes. Unless you have some moral qualms with having Vick on your fantasy team, the truth is he’s probably a better athlete than 40-50% of the league if not more. I’d take the same approach the Eagles did in signing him: hope to be the fantasy team that gets to brag about taking a chance on the fallen star and is responsible for facilitating a triumphant return. Someone in your league is going to draft him, and you don’t want to listen to them incessantly rub it in if the experiment pays off and,if you end up dropping him, the pick will quickly be forgotten like any other flier. The important thing to remember here is “flier”, there’s no need to be burning a 10th round pick on him. Play it cool, and if he’s there when some schmuck takes a backup defense: pounce.

Cadillac Williams – Big Caddy gets a surprise start for the Bucs’ 3rd preseason game. It appears rookie coach Rahim Morris is taking Cadillac for a test drive. Fantasy owners should remain aware of Cadillac’s progress and probably look at him as a handcuff/waiver wire option for Ernest Graham and Derrick Ward.

Terrell Owens – T.O.’s T-O-E still hurts. Your team will hurt if you draft T.O. expecting #1 receiver production.

Shaun Hill – Wins the starting QB job in San Francisco. This just means you can add Hill to your list of bye-week replacements. Personally I only draft one QB and use my other picks for high upside fliers at the RB and WR positions, which means I’ll keep tabs on Hill for a possible fill in.

Glen Coffee – The Niners are lookin’ to keep starting RB Frank Gore fresh with a decent helping of Coffee. Reportedly, the duo will be looking at a 17:6 carry ratio during the upcoming season. Coffee has been hot this preseason with 2 impressive games under his belt, but remember these are preseason games and one was against the Raiders. Look for Coffee to be a solid handcuff for Gore.

Robert Meachem – Returnin’ kicks isn’t something Meachem has done in a long time, but it looks like the Saints are looking to have him give it a try. If he takes over the full time returnman job, Meachem’s value will definitely receive a boost. I liked him as a sleeper at WR in the Saints’ offense, but with potential for return yards the 2007 first rounder could be a real contributor.

Reggie Bush – Will play Saturday and will probably get hurt. If (and that’s a big if) Reggie plays a full season, I think he can provide significant value over his current draft position 66.3, especially in PPR leagues. I’d be comfortable with Bush in my 3rd RB slot (<—unintentional euphemism) and I know, I know, many owners out there aren’t, but like our baseball brethren say: “when they’re ziggin, be zaggin!”.

Baron von Brett Aloysius Bannister Joaquin Favre the Third held court and found the Vikings worthy of his Hall of Fame interceptions.  When asked to comment, that crazy Vikings’ super fan said, “Favrgrrr . . . rghhh,” and then ate a puppy.  Favre’s aged arm gave out on him last season and his numbers gave out as well.  As I’ve written before, I am a fan of Sage “Brush” Rosenfels “TX,” but he’s out and Favor is in.  This should help most of the fantasy prospects of the Vikings, at least until Brett’s arm flops off his torso and shimmies down a Metrodome drainage pipe.  He is worthy of a backup QB position, but don’t get all sentimental and start him against any defense that can catch the ball. Here are a few other doo-dads and what not I ran into:

Matt Cassel: Things have been going downhill for Cassel in the sky ever since his poor display in the first preseason game.  He’s been fumbling and getting picked in practice like he’s Andrew Walters’ half brother. Unless he gets in synch very soon his backup with upside status won’t stick.

JaMarcus Russell: In a scrimmage with the 49ers the Raiders passing attack was abysmal, dismal, and outright schmamismal.  You weren’t going to draft this schmo, but he could hurt McFadden if he can’t complete at least one pass to his own team.

Shaun Hill: He’s winning the “Bay Areas Got Very Little Talent” competition with Alex Smith.

Steve Smith (NYG): He had a minor knee thingamatweakjury and was back and looking sound at practice.  This minor news item is a reason for me to tell you we believe Steve Smith with the ever present parenthetical NYG after his name should have a good third year.  The parenthetical Giant will get plenty of looks throughout the season and should end up with 70-80 receptions.

Chris Wells: He hurt himself again.  At some point he’ll have to stay on the field to run and catch and block, all that stuff that looks like playing football. His stock is falling quickly which might be good for anyone who wants to draft him.  If, and that’s a TO’s ego sized if, if he can stay healthy he will win the job from Hightower.

Brandon Marshall: The situation in the Rockies is getting tense and in that thin air, that just leads to headaches, and that is what Marshall is right now, a huge headache, Mount Headache to be exact. He isn’t engaged in practice because he doesn’t know the playbook, he doesn’t “trust” the Broncos’ organization because they said he was a doo doo head behind his back, and he had his agent reiterate that he wanted out of Denver.  This all plays into my theory that neck beards are repulsive, and that Eddie Royal will have 100 receptions and be moved up in my projections.

Leon Washington: The Jets upped their offer to Washington to 5 million a year.  This would be 4 million more than Thomas (I led the AFC in rushing!) Jones will make this year.  Peter King is saying Washington could get close to 300 touches and there is more speculation that rookie Shonn (yeah, that’s how I spell it) Greene could get goalline carries.  This all adds up to a lot of bluh and maybe some meh.

Davone Bess: He continues to look good in training camp according to all accounts.  There is a very good chance he will start in week one and is worth a flier or a flyer depending on how anal you are.

Walter Jones: He underwent arthroscopic knee surgery yesterday.  There is no timetable for his return, but I think he’ll need a time capsule to return to his usual dominant self after yet another surgery.  Downgrade the Seahawks’ offense and upgrade Matt Hasselbeck’s chances of being rushed to the hospital.

Tony Romo: Romopson has split.  Or Simpomo.  Whatever.  They are no longer.  Simpson tweets, “Everyone needs to know that hope floats … grab the strings and pull it back to you.”  This would be a good time for the class to turn their textbooks to “mixed metaphor.”

I know this really shouldn’t change much on the field, but without TO and Simpson and all the distractions they bring, it is hard to imagine this can’t help Romo at least a little. He has to be a little tired of all the talk of choking and vacationing and other -ings.  This is the year he needs to prove himself and I think he has a chance.  Look for Roy Williams and Jason Witten to benefit.

Derrick Mason: He says he’s retiring, which would be a big blow to the Ravens and Flacco.  This story is still in development.  Rumors are flying around about why, but the bottom line is the Ravens need Mason this year.

Michael Turner: “You can’t run 370 times a season,” according to offensive coordinator Mike Mularkey.  I don’t know if that’s an absolute, but I do know I average about ten runs a year and they usually coincide with downpours and the El.  So The Burner won’t be burning quite as much as last year which makes sense in reality, but us here in fantasyland don’t care if they run Mr. Burner into the ground as long as his decline doesn’t start until next season!  You can probably drop Turner down half a notch, but I don’t see this revelation changing much.

Bubba Franks: Cut by the Jets for having too old school of name and legs.

Michael Crabtree: Was brought to tears by Mike Singletary.  Reports are that Singletary found yet another chance to drop his pants.

Matt Cassel: Inks a 6 year 63 million dollar deal.  There is a lot to like about the system Cassel will be working in, but a lot to dislike about his new team.  He can be a good fantasy backup since the Chiefs will probably be playing from behind (think Thigpen).

Alex Smith/Shaun Hill: Singletary says he will wait until the third preseason game to name the starting QB.  We all hope this announcement comes pants on.

There aren’t many fantasy options in San Fran, but Frank Gore’s production will be tied to how well one of these two play.  I can’t say I’m overly optimistic.

Tarvaris Jackson: May demand a trade if and when Favre signs.  Is this before or after he is cut?

Antonio Bryant: The Bucs didn’t give Bryant a new deal so he’ll be a free agent after this season.  He had a break out season last year, but with a new coach and the four-headed monster McLeftFreeson at QB, he will have trouble repeating last year.  His contract situation should get him ready to play so I’m not losing all hope, but I’m waiting to see how the QB situation shakes out.

Brian Robiskie: The Browns’ rookie looks to be the front runner for the #2 wide receiver slot behind Braylon Edwards.  With the Browns looking to play just above horrible this season he probably won’t have much fantasy value, but there are worse things than being the #2 WR on the Browns.  I’m drawing a blank.

The League: A new comedy on F/X that revolves around a group of friends who play fantasy football together in the suburbs of Chicago.  It will be semi-improvised and directed by Curb Your Enthusiasm’s Jeff Schaffer.  Y0u know you’ll watch it.