Fantasy Football Calculator has been getting gobs of mock draft data so I think we can safely take a look at the upcoming season’s ADP. Well, safe is a relative term. Do we ever feel safe in this crazy world? Pass the Xanax. This bunker doesn’t get good wifi!
I’ve been looking at rankings from different sites and FFC’s ADP and I’m already getting a headache. There always seems to be a fairly consistent consensus over the fantasy football universe, but if you follow a ranking closely, even a small difference can make a big difference to how your team turns out.
Comparing your cheat sheet/preset rankings to ADP is one of the most helpful practices you can practice while watching reruns of The Practice. So I’ll take a look at just that and see what I can learn.
After the top 4 (CJ, AP, RR, MJD) there is quite a bit of variance. I’ve seen Rodgers and Turner in the 5 slot, but I’ve seen Frank Gore more than anyone else. And that is where his ADP is resting right now. I have him there as well, but by default. I could see a few players there without much of an uproar from me, but I’m fairly entrenched with Gore, but we thought Tipper was as well, so you never know.
Aaron Rodgers’ ADP is sitting around 9th overall. You already know my strict policy on taking a QB in the first round and even though I have Rodgers as my #1 QB, I think the top QBs will be closer together than they were last season. If you are hell bent on taking a QB early you might as well wait for Drew Brees whose ADP is 17 and could easily match Rodger’s numbers.
Randy Moss is currently at 12, which puts him in the first round of most drafts. I’ve been on the fence about Moss and now that the Welker news is more positive I might be moving him up in my rankings, but the first round just seems too early for Moss, who has taken plays, games, and seasons off.
DeAngelo Williams is going 16th overall. He is talented enough to go in the first round, but last season we saw Jonathan Stewart go nuts while DWilly was injured. I believe The Daily Show has earned a larger role and coach Fox will want to keep DeAngelo healthy. You do the math. Stewart had surgery to remove bone spurs and as long as he’s recovered and not bothered by them anymore, I see a more even split this season.
Jamaal Charles is 23 in ADP. That is toward the end of the second round. I would feel all tingly if I could get him there, paired with one of the Fab Four. The question is, do you reach for him? I have him 10th right now and I still feel good about him there. I’m pretty sure I would rather have Thomas Jones as my handcuff than Jonathan Stewart. Knowing that JC’s ADP is so high (or is that low?) I feel okay about waiting on him until the second round. If you pick in the top half of the first round you won’t be tempted to grab him and then you just have to hope he gets back to you. If you are picking toward the end of the first round the chances of him coming back to you in 2-6 picks is fairly good.
Knowshon Moreno falls to 34 at FFC. There was a lot to not like about him last season, he wore down toward the end and couldn’t get the job done in short yardage shituations. Is that you Mr. Connery? But he was a rookie and he did miss training camp and there are actually a ton of excuses which I half believe and half don’t, but when it comes down to it, Buckhalter had an amazing season when he wasn’t injured, but he was injured a lot and he’s pushing the big 5-o. Moreno will continue to get goal line carries and with no Marshall we will see more running than last season, and even more when Buckhalter finds himself on the injury report (no, not Deepak Chopra kind of finding himself). I like him for a #2 RB and would grab him in the late 2nd round to early 3rd round.
CJ Spiller at 70 and Fred Jackson at 89 seems a bit odd to me. I agree that Spiller is the superior talent, but he’s a rookie and has a similar skill set to Fast Freddie who knows the offense and excelled in it last season. Spiller is the future, but as long as Jackson is healthy he should see more touches.
The QBs I’m hoping will fall to me later in the draft are being mocked as such: Jay Cutler 83, Kevin Kolb 68, Matt Ryan 81, and Joe Flacco 90. The 6th, 7th, and 8th rounds are where I hope to grab a QB so I’m pretty happy with where these guys are going. Kevin Kolb does seem a bit high for me, especially with Vick possibly seeing snaps around the goal line. If it is looking like QBs are a hot commodity I could easily see myself reaching a bit for Cutler. I believe he has the most upside of these four.
Donald Driver is going 65th overall. I am always a proponent of grabbing consistent receivers, even if they are old man river old, but Driver just got a big competitor in Jermichael Finley, and Greg Jennings should rebound from his horridly horrible season to take even more looks away from Double D. Driver is going ahead of Hines 67 Ward and Jeremy Maclin 78 and just behind Hakeem Nicks 62 who I talked about in the last post, but it still looks like he isn’t getting no respect. I would still trust catch Donald if he fell (ala Tosh.0), but I’m not taking him in the 6th round.
Kevin Walter at 140 and Jacoby Jones at 182. Yes, JJ could be a bust this season. I’m not going to tell you to draft him anywhere other than flier range (which depends on your draft), but I just can’t justly justify drafting Walter before him. Even if Walter keeps the #2 receiver position all season (which I doubt) he couldn’t do anything worthwhile last season when Schaub was airing it out without Owen Daniels to take away receptions.