Skorish

Not Your Momma’s Bold Predictions!

August 20, 2021 | Fantasy Football Strategy |

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You know why you’re here. You’re either ready to have your delusions validated by the equally delusional or to become uncontrollably mad when your predictions are contradicted (how could that jackass say that about Taysom Hill?!).

You’re probably already a pretty savvy fantasy mind if you’ve meandered your way over here to the “MENSA of Fantasy Content”, RazzBall Incorporated. You’re no spring chicken, I’m sure and you probably have your own, unique homer-isms and biases when you sit down to draft. Unless you are a complete stat-junkie in hyper-competitive, ultra-high stakes fantasy competitions the odds are emotions play a role in your strategy.

They certainly do for me, I make no apologies for occasionally being an emotional idiot sports fan fantasy player and there are gut feelings that just pan out. Sometimes they can win you leagues and occasionally they tell you to draft Sixto Sanchez 1st overall in RazzSlam and end up on the fantasy baseball version of the no-fly list (meaning, I am now legally no longer an overweight white man with a beard). 

All that being said, some of these predictions are reasonable, backed up by stats, and truly plausible… and some might end me with me being “totally dunked on”, “owned”, “fired from writing your stupid articles, Skorish, for christ sakes these suck!”, etc., etc. 

These 4 bold predictions are going to be somewhat ordered from most likely to most ridiculous. 

So let’s get to it!

Please, blog, may I have some more?

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Bobby LaMarco

Fantasy Points Per Reception Analysis Wide Receiver Edition – Part 1

August 20, 2021 | Fantasy Football Strategy |

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In this article, we break down Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR positive regression candidates from 2020 at the wide receiver position. The goal of this article is to help you identify players to potentially buy in 2021.

A couple of things you might want to know first. The league average FPPR for wide receivers over the past 10 seasons is 2.19. For a wide receiver to see one point more per game they need to average four receptions per game and see an increase in FPPR of .25. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Donkey Teeth

Top 200 for 2021 Fantasy Football

August 19, 2021 | Fantasy Football Rankings | 25 Comments

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Rankings! Rankings! Get you rankings! 

Who doesn’t love a good list? My wife (yes, still imaginary) makes me lists all the time. Grocery list. Honey-do list. Reasons-I-wish-I-had-married-Chauncy-LaBeau-from-high-school-instead-of-you list. Of course, I glance at all of these lists once and then forget they ever existed. Nothing comes of them. Such is my expectation for your experience with this list of two-hundred men who will handle the pigskin in the twenty-second year of the twenty-first century. Nevertheless, the list must be compiled and neurotically reordered for the next two weeks as information comes in about stubbed toes, disgruntled divas and Antonio Brown’s helmet. Anyway, here’s my top 200 rankings for 2021 half PPR fantasy football: 

*Note: I have not included my own projections in any of this year’s rankings. Rudy Gamble’s World-Renowned 2021 Fantasy Football Projections are all you need! These preseason projections are available free of charge, while Rudy’s in-season weekly projection subscription is currently available until August 31st at an early bird discounted price of only $17.99 for the entire season! These are the same weekly projections that won Rudy Gamble the FantasyPros designation of “Best Bold Ranker” for the years 2017-2019 (and likely 2020!). 

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Son

Darrell Henderson Can Rise From the RB Dead Zone

August 18, 2021 | Fantasy Football Strategy | 2 Comments

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Rounds three to six of fantasy drafts are considered the running back dead zone as RB scoring plummets after the second round. Jack Miller of Establish the Run and Rotoviz mapped out the data. I have been leaning more wide receiver and elite tight end at the top of most of my drafts this year but I have dabbled into the dead zone fray. Myles Gaskin. Mike Davis. Trey Sermon. I know, I’m a stupid, stupid man. There has been one player who has been growing on me the more that I think about things, and that player is Darrell Henderson of the Los Angeles Rams. Here’s my thinking why I believe Henderson can rise from the dead zone ashes and potentially vault himself into Top 10 territory.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
everywhereblair

I Don’t Want None Unless You Got the 1.01

August 18, 2021 | Fantasy Football Strategy | 20 Comments

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Let’s get right to the point: don’t be afraid to take whoever you want at the top of the draft. OK, don’t be afraid within reason. You’re not winning your league with Miles Sanders as the 1.01 pick (curse me if it happens this year). But personally, I see people feel trapped when they get the 1.01 pick: they get Christian McCaffrey, or Dalvin Cook. OK, that’s not a bad start, right? But why not Jonathan Taylor or Alvin Kamara or Derrick Henry or Aaron Jones or, or, or? Why do we as a fantasy community argue about “Can Jonathan Taylor be the RB1?” Yes, yes he can! Last year, the top 3 RBs came from the 4th, 5th, and 6th draft spots (Alvin Kamara, Derrick Henry, and Dalvin Cook). In 2019, the top 4 RBs came from the 2nd, 4th, 28th, and 58th draft spots. In 2018, the top 3 RBs came from the 1st, 6th, and 15th draft spots. You see my point, right? The consensus RB1 doesn’t really matter. And the only reason you should concern yourself with the consensus RB1 is if you’re drafting in only one league, which is rarer and rarer in modern fantasy football. Let’s dive into the stats after the jump. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?
everywhereblair

For Love or Money?

August 17, 2021 | Fantasy Football Strategy | 3 Comments

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Think quick, hotshot! Who’s your favorite type of music? I bet you had an answer already prepared because you’ve answered that question a million times. For me, I love progressive metal. But, I also love chill hop. I also love ambient and jazz and orchestral and and and. Now, think of your favorite band or musical artists. What genre are they in? Me? I would say that the progressive metal band Periphery is my favorite band right now. Would Periphery be any good at chill hop music? Or ambient music? Or country and western or trap or grime or dubstep or honkey-tonk or…you get my drift. The day I see Waylon Jennings cranking out metal riffs is the day I give up writing (please don’t make me give up writing). 

So what do genres of music have to do with fantasy football? A ton. Simply put: there are genres of fantasy sports. And — believe it or not — not everybody is good at all genres. I remember being stunned in Razzball chat one day when Rudy described the difference between him and Grey on the baseball side: Grey was the superior daily lineup player, while Rudy was the superior weekly lineup / best-ball player. At the time, I didn’t think much of this. But as I grew my presence in the industry and met so many other informed players who did all sorts of different kinds of fantasy sports — not only different sports but the different subtypes of games within the sport — I realized that not every format was for me. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?
C.A. James

Avoiding the Blurbstomp – On Writing and ADP Inflation

August 16, 2021 | Avoiding the Blurbstomp |

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Once in a while, a good piece of advice can come from the internet. Just yesterday a single person commented on last Saturday’s inaugural NFL Avoiding the Blurbstomp piece first calling themselves a “simpleton of linguistics” before accusing me of needless complexity in the structure of my writing. My superego, the voice of doubt, shame, and embarrassment that works hard to hijack any creative endeavor I pursue, was overjoyed. “Here,” it said, “Your writing style is unnecessary. Don’t be stupid. Write about fantasy sports just like everyone else.” My superego then leaned back against its souped-up, ketchup red Honda Civic with a spoiler and rims that would make Vin Diesel blush and dared me to keep writing. 

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Donkey Teeth

Top 40 Wide Receivers for 2021 Fantasy Football

August 16, 2021 | Fantasy Football Rankings | 8 Comments

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I’m testing out a new draft strategy this year: Zero RBWR. Intrigued? You only draft quarterbacks and tight ends for the first ten rounds, then key in on all the value running backs and wide receivers from there. I’m thinking my opponents will never expect it, and by the time they realize what’s happening it’ll be too late. Game over. Donkey wins. Alright, I’ll quit Donking around. Let me say that I oppose entering any drafting with a rigid strategy such as Zero RB, Zero WR or Zero DongB. Take what your draft gives you. I’ve found this year’s drafts often give opportunity for intriguing wide receiver picks through the middle rounds where running back options become squanchy. Again, don’t box yourself into taking RBs early but give it strong consideration when you’re on the clock with those first couple fateful picks. Anyway, here’s my top 40 wide receivers for 2021 fantasy football:  

Click here to see all 2021 Fantasy Football Rankings.

*Note: These rankings are geared toward half PPR scoring. Projections provided in this season’s rankings are NOT my own, they come from Rudy Gamble’s World-Renowned 2021 Fantasy Football Projections. These preseason projections are available free of charge, while Rudy’s in-season weekly projection subscription is currently available until August 31st at an early bird discounted price of only $17.99 for the entire season! These are the same weekly projections that won Rudy Gamble the FantasyPros designation of “Best Bold Ranker” for the years 2017-2019 (and likely 2020!). 

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Bobby LaMarco

Fantasy Points Per Reception – Running Back Edition Part 2

August 15, 2021 | Fantasy Football Strategy | 2 Comments

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Before you go any further if you haven’t read the previous articles from this series, we recommend you do so. You can find those articles here:

Points Per Rush Attempt Analysis for 2021 Fantasy Football

Point Per Rush Attempt Analysis – Regression Candidates

Fantasy Points Per Reception – Running Back Edition Part 1

 In this article we breakdown Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR regression candidates from 2020 at the running back position to help you identify players to potentially fade in 2021.

As a reminder the league average for FPPR over the past 10 seasons is 1.49. For a running back to see a half point less per game they need to catch 40 passes and see a drop in FPPR of .2.

 

2021 FPPR Negative Regression Candidates

Player: Chris Carson

2020 FPPR: 1.92

Career avg. FPPR: 1.75

FPPR Variance: 10%

 

2020 PPG
2021 Projected PPG
14.1 13.6

 

Chris Carson has been as consistent as they come over the past three seasons seeing his PPG range from 14-14.8. However, somewhat of a red flag heading into 2021 was Carson’s big drop in touches. From 2019 to 2020 Carson saw his touches decrease from 21.5 to 14.8. Carson was able to keep up his PPG by seeing a 16% increase in his PPRA and 10% increase FPPR vs. his career norms. Based on what we learned over these past few articles one if not both will drop in 2021.

The next question we need to answer is “what does the floor for Carson look like if he were to return to his career norms without an uptick in touches”. The short answer is 12.4 PPG. That would put him outside the top 25 running backs in PPG last season. Currently Carson’s ADP is RB18 which isn’t a terrible price to pay based on his PPG over the past three seasons. Currently backup RB Rashaad Penny is out again so Carson could be leaned on early. This makes it likely for him to see a bump in touches in 2021.   

Please, blog, may I have some more?
JB Barry

Fantasy Football Draft Day Do’s and Don’ts

August 14, 2021 | Fantasy Football Strategy | 6 Comments

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When I was younger, I was a defiant little rascal and hated when people told me not to do something. I was the spiteful kid who would then want to do it even more. Sometimes I would get away with it, but sometimes I would get in trouble, of course. Well, I am here today to give you the Do’s and Don’ts of your Fantasy Football draft. You can choose to be defiant, but I would suggest you listen to these tips so you don’t get in trouble on draft day.

Please, blog, may I have some more?
Bobby LaMarco

Fantasy Points Per Reception – Running Back Edition Part 1

August 13, 2021 | Fantasy Football Strategy |

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Before you go any further if you haven’t read the original article on the Points Per Rush Attempt Analysis (PPRA), we recommend you read that first. You can find that article here. In Part 1 of the running back edition, we break down Fantasy Points Per Reception or FPPR outliers from 2020 to help you identify players to potentially buy in 2021.

Yes, we will be diving into the receiving portion of our analysis, but the concept is the same as the original PPRA article. The biggest difference is the numbers are a bit higher. For example, the league average FPPR over the past 10 seasons is 1.49. For a running back to see a half-point more per game they need to catch 40 passes and see an uptick in FPPR of .2.

The running backs who saw an outlier season of -10% in FPPR on average saw an increase of .47 or 40% increase in FPPR the next season. That means for every 40 receptions these running backs saw an increase of just over one fantasy point per game in .5 PPR the year after they had an outlier season.

Please, blog, may I have some more?