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Over the course of the off-season we’ll be looking back at some of the major players who ‘broke out’ or outperformed their ADP by a drastic amount in the hopes that we can get a feel for what their 2013 fantasy football season holds and whether the break out is here to stay.  Today the review subject is James Jones.

James Jones

Welp, it finally happened.  After years of ‘James Jones, 20xx fantasy football sleeper’ posts and much gnashing of teeth, the fantasy football world was introduced to a top twenty wide receiver finish from James in 2012.  But much like Mickey Rourke’s career rebound we all have to ask ourselves ‘will it last’?  You see, it’s just downright hard to trust a player who scored 37% of his fantasy points in a PPR league off of touchdowns to repeat that feat in the following year, especially when they’re a wide receiver.  But let’s not get too far ahead of ourselves.  We have some evaluation to do before we kick this breakout season to the curb and call it dead.  So let’s see what happened in 2012 for James Jones and see what, if any, of it can translate to 2013 fantasy football…

Weeks 1-4: 16 rec, 23 targets, 191 receiving yards, 3 touchdowns, 45.1 total points – This was the start of a nice little touchdown run by James Jones that rolled into weeks 5 and 6 after scoring 2 touchdowns on New Orleans to round out the first four weeks.  Of course, his 4 catch 81 yard and 1 score performance against the 49ers to start the year was also nice but I’m sure anyone who owned him during this stretch didn’t know when to start him.  He followed up his great game against SF with negative yardage and 2 catches against an equally intimidating Bears defense.  In this 4 game span, 39.9% of his fantasy points were scored via touchdown.

Weeks 5-9: 20 rec, 33 targets, 210 receiving yards, 4 touchdowns, 55 total points – This was a great stretch of the season for Jones during these 4 weeks as he scored a minimum of 8 points in all 4 games and had the previously mentioned multi-touchdown streak from weeks 4 thru 6.  To no one’s surprise, a huge assist to Jones’ emergence is Greg Jennings going down with injury in week 4 to start this string of success.  During this span, 43.5% of Jones’ fantasy relevance hinges on two weeks that had a combined 4 touchdowns.

Weeks 10-13: 8 rec, 13 targets, 134 receiving yards, 2 touchdowns, 29.4 total points – The injury imp got to Jones in week 11 vs Detroit which cut short his week then and he didn’t play in week 12 so we’re really looking at 2 1/2 games of production here.  Again, the percentage of touchdowns as fantasy points is high for James in this string as well, accounting for 40.8% of his points.

Weeks 14-17: 20 rec, 29 targets, 249 receiving yards, 5 touchdowns, 64.9 total points – Clearly, Jones ended the season well posting his biggest 4 week fantasy output on the year.  Even with his no-show against the Lions, Jones averaged 16.225 fantasy points per game in this stretch which – if done over a full season – would’ve put him as a low-end WR1 for total points.  Again, touchdowns were the big thing here as James scored a whopping 46.2% of his fantasy points off of his 5 touchdowns.

Conclusion: I’m surprised to say this but I’m actually torn here and before you scoff, let’s look over the positives (the touchdowns) that I called negatives and see if we can put a positive spin on them.  It’s not like we haven’t seen a wide receiver score a lot of touchdowns for Green Bay in the past seemingly out of nowhere.  We only have to go back to 2011 and Jordy Nelson’s fine 15 touchdown season to prove that.  So James averaging almost a touchdown a game isn’t a crazy thing in and of itself, especially when you consider the talent at QB for the Packers.  Also factor in that Greg Jennings is now a Viking in 2013, there is room for optimism concerning Jones to provide decent value in 2013 even without any improvement on his part.  I think the only thing that’ll keep me from drafting Jones this year will be how many fantasy schmucks who draft him in 2013 because of his 2012 numbers.  Touchdowns, much like your girlfriend during that special time of the month, are fickle.  If you don’t believe me, just ask owners of Johnson and Johnson.  No not the company, Calvin and Andre as they combined for 9 touchdowns on the year.  All this to say, I think Jones can repeat most of his numbers in 2013 but I wouldn’t bet that he comes close to the touchdowns even if it was with your money.  There’s good value here in 2013 if it falls to you, I just have big doubts it will.

Projections: 68 rec, 850 rec yards, 0 rushing yards, 8 total touchdowns

  1. Wallpaper Paterson says:
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    Can I interest anyone in a new dynasty league at myfantasyleague.com with some IDP action?

    • Sky

      Sky says:
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      Keep buzzing around here over the next couple of months or hit up the forums. I’m sure you’ll get some bites.

      • Wallpaper Paterson says:
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        @Sky: I still have to decide if it is in my best interests to start it this year or next. I know that I want to get the league filled by July 1 of whichever year. I want a draft that begins no later than July 15 (whether slow email draft or one night affair).
        I am starting a new job on Monday. It might be better to take on the stress associated with starting a serious league when my situation is more stable. There is stress involved going from job to job even when the new one is much better.

        • Sky

          Sky says:
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          I lived the same thing about a year and a half ago myself so I completely understand. Traffic should pick up here in the summer months in terms of commenters. If you’re aiming for 2014, you should be able to find your people.

          • Wallpaper Paterson says:
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            @Sky: Yeah, I think in
            that earlier post I talked myself into a 2014 (or later) startup. I will join Jack’s league assuming it is a free redraft league. That would pretty much wrap it up for me in 2013. I only want to do three leagues max and I am already in two keepers.

            • Sky

              Sky says:
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              Yeah, 3’s a good number; not overly distracting that way.

              • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                @Sky: I say 4 tops, but nothing more than that, in case one turns out to be a dud

                • Sky

                  Sky says:
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                  Ah true, there is the dud factor

            • Jack Full of Hate says:
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              @Wallpaper Paterson: its free and maybe even a prize for the winner if I don’t get too lazy

  2. Jack Full of Hate says:
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    you don’t mind if I sneak over here for some baseball talk, I don’t want any in league peepers

    • Jack Full of Hate says:
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      @Jack Full of Hate: I’m in dead last, would you drop espinosa at this point, i know his BABIP is really low and his K rate is down, but damnit, he sucks on my bench

      • Sky

        Sky says:
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        I’m fine with dropping him depending on who you’re dropping him for. I’m stuck with him in 3 leagues right now. I know he’s streaky but this is absurd

        • Jack Full of Hate says:
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          @Sky: this page says he has been unlucky this year and a tear is on the horizon

          • Sky

            Sky says:
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            Oh I’m well aware of fangraphs and all the goods it brings. Just watching him is depressing. I am keeping him around because 2B is a dank smelly bear anus after months of hibernation and there’s not much else to nab. Hopefully he comes around but I’m not gonna hold my breath he does it before losing some PT along the way

            • Jack Full of Hate says:
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              @Sky: I know that, the BABIP is really low but the K rate is the same and even though the walk rate is really low, that might be out of his frustration of sucking, his ISO is the same as last year

              I hate getting all nerdy-esque, but I have to find a way t have hope, I still refuse to drop Ike, i know someone higher in the standings will grab and stash, because they can and will wait for the beast to awaken

              • Sky

                Sky says:
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                Sounds like you have one of my teams. I have BJ, Ike and Espinosa on one of my teams. It’s in 11th right now and I can’t gain any traction because I have nowhere to hide those three schmucks. I’m not dropping them. I either keep sinking to the bottom with this ship or it rights itself. My only concern with Espinosa is there being guys around him Johnson might turn to if he keeps this crap up. Lombardozzi or even down on the farm with Rendon (though unlikely).

                • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                  @Sky: my 12th place team, which I have turned over to you and Grey, will be run by your two’s decision making process, its in 12th, I was in 6th 10 days a go, I have BJ, Giancarlo, Espinosa, Ethier, Gonzo, Pedroia, Markakis, Sal Perez Howard, Berkman until today who i dropped for Dunn…. just a bunch of duds or yawnstipating players, I really don’t know what I was thinking….I got too stoned and thought it was 2009 on draft day. My other teams are killing it. My staff is solid, but I have no pen, Mad Max, Zimm, Samardjza, Burnett and Ogando.

                  My biggest problem is dealing with BJ and Giancarlo, after making some FA moves I now have an OF of Ethier, Markakis, and BJ, the only 3 drafted, with pickups of McClouth, Saunders, Dirks, Melky

                  I so badly want to decide on 6 and drop the rest and grab some nice middle relief guys to help keep my K’s up

                  My team is so crappy that Panda is my MVP so far

                  • Sky

                    Sky says:
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                    OF in RCLs is crazy. There always seems to be someone out there. Personally, Saunders has to stay long haul. I’d see if anyone bites on Ethier/Markakis. Not really a fan of either but their names might still bring value

                    • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                      @Sky: after his ridiculous April, McClouth is hitting .125 in May, I grabbed Boneface as an upside Schomato, he looks like he is putting it together, or thats my wishful thinking

                      Jacks thought of the day: If you’re going to have kids, get a puppy first for training, besides the diapers it’s almost the same thing

                • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                  @Sky: I just dropped Dirks for Bone face

                  • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                    @Jack Full of Hate: I dropped McCloth for Santiago

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      I think dirks for Santiago would’ve been better. Boneface is just replacing speed but at least McClouth had a good spot in a good lineup.

                      Berkman has been better than I expected and Howard has been what I expected. Sal Perez is playing well but the numbers aren’t turning into much. I think the guy is now hitting .300 and it feels so hollow and it really shouldn’t…

                    • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                      @Jack Full of Hate: after his ridiculous April, McClouth is hitting .125 in May, I grabbed Boneface as an upside Schomato, he looks like he is putting it together, or thats my wishful thinking

                      Jacks thought of the day: If you’re going to have kids, get a puppy first for training, besides the diapers it’s almost the same thing

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      Yeah I hear ya on McClouth. Just never been a big Bonifacio guy myself. Hopefully that comes around for you though.

                      We adopted ours so no puppy stage. Want to get one, though. The wife keeps asking about kids. I’ll tell her Jack said we need to try a puppy first.

                    • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                      @Jack Full of Hate: I will be your child consultant….hope the wife is ok with that, please, no videos of the baby making process

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      Ha, that’s what redtube is for

                    • Jack Full of Hate says:
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                      @Jack Full of Hate: you and the wife are on redtube?

                    • Sky

                      Sky says:
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                      As far as my wife knows? No.

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