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With the 2013 NFL Draft just around the corner, we need to start looking at all the information we have and start preparing for our rookie drafts that could make or break your dynasty or redraft teams. With this particular draft, as stated many times before, there is a lot of depth in talent but not necessarily any standout prospects at the Quarterback, Running Back or Wide Receiver positions. This is clearly seen by in the off season developments of teams with high picks like Oakland, Arizona and the New York Jets adding talent at all the skill positions with less than impressive free agent players. With this being the case, landing spots of these prospects is going to be more important than ever when evaluating their impact in the NFL and on your fantasy football team. Case in point, Lamar Miller was considered one of the top running back prospects in the 2012 draft but due to his situation in Miami, he fell behind Reggie Bush on the depth chart and played on a team that just could not get it done offensively. On the other side you had prospects like Alfred Morris who was provided the right circumstance and was part of an explosive Redskins offense and was one of the top running backs in fantasy football. We are going to assume that teams like the Steelers, Broncos, Packers, Rams and Bengals are all looking for their next work horse back but it’s all a guessing game as to what prospect will actually end up there. I have my rankings and although I am confident in them I really wanted to get the sense of what others were thinking due to the many diverse rankings out there. The best opportunity for this was a one round all rookie mock draft with several draft and rookie enthusiasts such as myself. Lets take a look at the picks and where the players were drafted in this little mock draft and how it might have an effect on the 2013 fantasy football season…

1.01 Lacy, Eddie RB
1.02 Bernard, Giovani RB
1.03 Austin, Tavon WR
1.04 Hunter, Justin WR
1.05 Franklin, Johnathan RB
1.06 Patterson, Cordarrelle WR
1.07 Lattimore, Marcus RB
1.08 Allen, Keenan WR
1.09 Michael, Christine RB
1.10 Hopkins, DeAndre WR
1.11 Eifert, Tyler TE
1.12 Rogers, Da’Rick WR

We started the draft off with Eddie Lacy at 1.01, which wasn’t surprising but not a pick I would personally make. Many consider Lacy to be the “safe” pick in the draft and are hoping to get another version of Trent Richardson but I just don’t think that’s the case. In my opinion, Lacy is a very risky pick regardless of landing spot. Next player of the board was not surprising at all and is an excellent prospect. Giovani Bernard shows consistency and I really think he can be an every down back if he lands on the right team. Third player off the board has been the talk of the draft community, Tavon Austin. Many would disagree with taking a wide receiver this early but with Austin I think it is justified. Not only is Austin an outstanding prospect but he will most likely be playing in a slot type role where he’ll require very little transition and he will be an immediate contributor. The fourth pick was a little surprising but I can understand the reasoning. With the popular stud wide receiver having a the prototypical size of guys like Dez Bryant, Brandon Marshall and AJ Green this is a shot in the dark that Hunter – who has a similar build – could develop into one of these guys. I have my questions though as he has shown durability issues and has had trouble developing at the college level. With the fifth pick I was excited to see my number one running back available and took Jonathan Franklin. Franklin needs to hit a good landing spot but if he does we could see a similar rookie debut that we saw from Doug Martin in 2012. The sixth pick went with the most athletic offensive player, Cordarrelle Patterson.  Not a bad pick as Patterson has a tremendous ceiling but an equal floor, a player that will be over-drafted in many rookie drafts. The seventh pick was a bit surprising as Marcus Lattimore, who is recovering from a serious knee injury, was drafted in the first round. I think this was a little early considering it might be over a year before we get to see anything from Lattimore. My only guess is that the success of Adrian Peterson in 2012 has made fantasy owners fearless to ACL-type injuries and although I agree sports medicine has advanced, lets not lose sight of the fact that this is his second severe knee injury in his college career. At eight went one of my favorite wide receivers and could be a steal in many rookie drafts because his stock is falling with a nagging knee injury and poor 40 time. Allen has the skills to be an elite NFL receiver and if he comes at value like this, he is a must add. The ninth pick was a bit of a shock because he was my second round target but Christine Michael at 1.09 was a great reach. This running back that may have an injury history and off the field issues, but may be the most complete back and may have the highest ceiling of all the running backs in this class. This could be a pick that pays off big for the drafter. The tenth pick, DeAndre Hopkins, was probably the most complete wide receiver in the draft and should end up on a team with an opportunity to be an immediate contributor. The eleventh pick wasn’t one that I personally would make but again don’t blame the drafter, especially with the emergence of game changing tight ends. Tyler Eifert in the first round could be a chance to land the next Jimmy Graham or Rob Gronkowski. The last pick in the first round was a bit of a reach as wide receiver Da’Rick Rogers who has great ability but had so many off the field issues in college there are serious questions as to is potential at the NFL level; talented but a very risky move.

Overall this was an interesting experience but it just goes to show there are many different views in this very level class. My advice is do the research and look to target players that really stand out to you personally. Good luck in your 2013 fantasy football drafts and looking forward to a much anticipated NFL Draft to kick of the 2013 season!

 

  1. Nick The Podcast Host

    Nick The Podcast Host says:
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    It’s never too early. In a dynasty rookie draft how would you rank the RBs (not just 2013).

  2. murph says:
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    Ranking this year’s class as compared to previous years?

    • Nick The Podcast Host

      Nick The Podcast Host says:
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      @murph: Sorry I meant rank the 2013 class career wise, not just based on their expected output.

      • Murph says:
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        @Nick The Podcast Host: Hard to be certein without knowing the landing spots but if I had to I would rank them like this…top 10 guys to target in a dynasty draft:
        1. Johnathan Franklin
        2. Gio Bernard
        3. Andre Ellington
        4. Christine Michael
        5. Eddie Lacy
        6. Le’Veon Bell
        7. Joseph Randle
        8. Montee Ball
        9. Zac Stacy
        10. Mike Gillislee
        Not in my top 10 but Kenjon Barner is also interesting in PPR if he lands a Sproles type roll.

        • Murph says:
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          @Murph: @Murph: Re: Ellington Arizona Cardinals not Redskins

  3. robbyrobdu says:
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    I think this is the 30th mock I’ve seen LoL obviously nowhere near too early :-)

    • Murph says:
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      @robbyrobdu: Yea I feel like I’m all Mocked out for now I’ve done about 30 myself haha. Ready for the draft to get here then start the process all over.

  4. jeff says:
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    Eddie Lacy and Mike Gillislee are probably the best two backs, with Gillislee almost a Percy Harvin utility player

  5. Dan A

    Dan A. says:
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    Howdy Murph,

    Seeing as how the actual NFL draft shoot out so far, do you still agree with the RB ranking you provided to Nick the Podcast guy?

    I have a Dynasty draft on Monday night, and I’m thinking of taking either Gio Bernard or Eddie Lacy, as both should get a shot to contribute right away, Tavon should go first overall, and I pick 5th, but trying to work a deal to land the 2nd pick. But to stay on topic, what is your opinion of, say, the top 4 RB’s and their potential impact this year, (and going forward, if you can spare the time)?

    Thanks, love your pieces so far, BTW.

    Dan.

    • Murph says:
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      @Dan A.:
      Hey Dan
      I think we are getting a little too excited and last year’s sucess of Martin, Richardson, Morris and Wilson and Brown but there are a few in this class that could make an impact. Those rankings I gave Nick were a little premature due to not knowing landing spots which really changes everything. I am working on final rankings that will post next week but don’t mind giving you my thoughts on who you should target since you draft is Monday.

      RB
      1 Gio Bernard: Immediate contributor for the Bengals should go 1 overall
      2. LeVeon Bell: Immediate contributor who should have no problem winning the starting job in Pittsburgh
      3. Montee Ball: Broncos should be cutting McGahee and Moreno and doubt that Hillman has the ability to protect Manning, Ball should be another contributor
      4. Lacy/Franklin: Green Bay got a steal by drafting both of these backs. I fear we are going to see a timeshare here and have doubts Lacy can stay healthy for the entire year. If I’m drafting one it should be Franklin in the later rounds.
      5. Zac Stacy: With the departure of Steven Jackson this backfield is up for grabs and I’m not sure Pead or Richardson can win the starting job for the Rams. Stacy is an MJD/Ray Rice type that can grind out tough yards
      6. Christine Michael: Marshawn Lynch handcuff
      7. Joseph Randle: Demarco Murray handcuff
      8. Mike Gilllislee: Lamar Miller handcuff
      9. Andre Ellingtin: Should see situational 3rd down roll with the Redskins
      10. Lattimore: Good landing spot for him and although it’s a crowded backfield in San Fran he should be able to work his way into the rotation within the next few years.

      • Murph says:
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        @Murph: Re: Ellington Arizona Cardinals not Redskins (Typo)

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