Fantasy Football Advice

In poker, investment, and Fantasy Football mirages and destructive assumptions will bury you. We all want to get an edge on the competition and unlock the mystical key to victory. It’s not hard to see how people want to believe in and use what I call “cheat codes.”

Up up down down left right left right B A; that’s the Contra code that gives you 99 lives. Remember when life was that simple? If you had trouble beating a game you just had to find a cheat code or hook up the “game genie” and your problems would be solved. Many people take this with them in to adulthood, continually seeking shortcuts to solve their problems.

There was a cheat code in “Punchout” to get all the way to the end without having to fight any of the previous opponents. So someone could never have played it before and get right to the end. But what happened once they got there? They had no chance whatsoever of beating Mike Tyson. The collective experience of beating the lesser fighters built the skill necessary to beat the final challenge. That’s the sad part about cheat codes; even if you’re victorious it’s hollow and you’re left with lesser skills than people who are playing the game straight up without cheating.

It’s extremely convenient to believe that Poker contains cheat codes. When I started playing I read a few books, hoping to unlock the “secret.” There was a continual cycle where I would learn something new, apply it, have some success, then realize that I still hadn’t been able to “beat” the game. These setbacks motivated me to double my efforts to learn more. The better I got, the more I realized that there was no cheat code to poker. It takes a great deal of collective knowledge and experience to become a winning player.

I like listening to ignorant people give advice about investing in the stock market. They always say things like “what ya gotta do is, buy lotsa _________ cause it’s been doing really good and my advisor says it’s gonna keep going up.” In the early 2000’s this blank was Real Estate and the Financial Industry. Investors got greedy and demanded increasingly higher returns; many people insisted that their advisors put them exclusively in real estate and financial services since they were the “hot” stocks. They thought they had found a cheat code for the stock market. In the late 90’s when tech stocks and dotcoms were the cheat code. What investors ought to have learned (but probably haven’t) from all this is that hard work, studying, and a willingness to constantly reassess is the only way to get ahead.

The other important caveat from investing that I’d like to mention is diversification. Most Financial Advisors will divide their client’s assets up in to four or more areas. Within these areas an advisor will mix in stocks and funds that vary in size and sector. The portfolio is balanced on a yearly basis in order to spread the risk around the most areas.

The most commonly held and most idiotic “cheat code” assumption in Fantasy Football is that owning multiple players on the same team is a good idea. The typical strategy is to get a quarterback/wide receiver combination.

The argument in favor sounds appealing and logical at first glance. Any time your QB throws to your receiver you get double points. Touchdowns are huge bonuses and it’s really exciting any time this happens. If your quarterback has a big game, odds are your receiver will too and odds are you’ll win your week. That sounds awesome! Who could possibly hate that? Me.

There is a price to pay for everything. In order to get these games where you hit your “combos” you must take the games where the quarterback plays poorly, killing the receivers’ production, burying your team, and virtually ensuring a loss. You are also a lot more vulnerable to injuries, even if they’re not to your player. For example if the offensive line gets decimated the entire offense will likely suffer.

Our goal is to put up a solid number of points on a weekly basis. Inevitably we will face a few opponents each season that put up a ton of points; we can count on a few losses regardless of the talent on our roster. We will also face a few opponents on their down weeks and pick up cheap wins. This variance is simply part of the game. If we play for combos, however, or variance will be through the roof.

Picture this: your QB/WR combo delivers and you have a great week. Only problem is your opponent has several players with big games and you lose narrowly. The following week, your next opponent has a bad week but your QB/WR faces a tough defense and gets shut down, crippling your team and causing you to lose.

Bye weeks and the playoffs are additional arguments against combo-ing. I don’t believe in drafting players (or not drafting them) based on bye week but I’d prefer to spread mine out if possible. Players being on the same team obviously guarantee that this will happen. We also run the risk of having a down week during the playoffs which is when we want to be at our best.

This season I owned Peyton Manning and Reggie Wayne on the same team. I took Wayne because he fell to me then I didn’t trade him because he was so productive. This all came back to haunt me during the Fantasy Playoffs in the finals, Week 16. My “combo” backfired.

Do We Alter Our Draft Strategy?

While we don’t want to own players on the same team during the season I have no problem with drafting them with the intention of trading. The way I’d do it is trade whichever player(s) you can get the most value for. I firmly believe in drafting the best available player at all times regardless of position or what you need at the time. This is another topic that I will post on at a later date.

Final Thoughts

When the competition isn’t very good you can get away with a lot of mistakes. Our goal, however, should be to improve to the point where we can compete in any league regardless no matter how tough it is. When you’re trying to get an edge against other astute players you have to win by doing the little things right. Managing risk is very important overall and owning players on different teams is one such necessary step in the right direction.

There is no off season here at Razzball (except for that 48 hour bender right after the Super Bowl). We’ve already got ourselves a slow mock draft happening to kick off the beginning of the 2010-2011 season.  Yes, there will be a lot of changes as the so-called off season moves players around and brings in new, younger ones, but doing mocks is a great way to see how others value players and helps solidify where you value players.  Here are my co-conspirator mockaletes.

1. Matt Schauf – RapidDraft.com

2. Melissa Jacobs - TheFootballGirl.com

3. Melissa Greenhawt – GoGameFace.com

4. Chet Gresham – This Guy

5. Jim Day - FFWhiz.com

6. Charlie Tourtillotte — Tourinct

7. Mike Clay – FantasyDC.com

8. Steve Adler - FantasyDaddy.com

9. Paul M. Bourdett – BaseHeads.com

10. Drew Silva – Rotoworld.com

11. Bryan Fontaine – RookieBlitz.com

12. Knox Bardeen – Fanhouse.com

We’re still mocking each other so I’ll keep you updated on our progress.  My picks are in bold.  Here are the first three rounds for your amusement:

Round One

1. Maurice Jones Drew

2. Chris Johnson

3. Adrian Peterson

4. Ray Rice

5. Michael Turner

6. Andre Johnson

7. Frank Gore

8. Steven Jackson

9. Jamaal Charles

10. Matt Forte

11. Aaron Rodgers

12. Ryan Grant

– The first round had most of the usual suspects in it, but MJD at #1 was a little surprising. He’s in my 1st tier and I can see him being a #1 pick, but I’m a little worried about Garrard getting him to the goal line as much as he needs. Matt defends his pick here.

– I felt good about getting Ray Rice 4th.  If I had to choose a draft position it would be one of the top 4 or at the turn at 11/12.  I don’t think you can go wrong with any of the top 4 picks and if you get 4th you don’t have to decide!

– Drew went with Forte at #10 which is within the realm of where his ADP will be, but I will probably pass on him unless it’s a ppr league.  Martz likes to use his running backs in the passing game, a lot.

– Aaron Rodgers will be in the running for the #1 quarterback off the board, but after last year’s ten 4,ooo yard passers, I’ll be waiting on a quarterback.

– Since I’m pro Chris Johnson, getting him at #2 is good value, but no picks really stood out to me as steals.  I have Jamaal Charles ranked higher than he went, but that second tier is pretty fluid with Gore, A.J., SJax and Charles.

Round Two

13. Drew Brees

14. Larry Fitzgerald

15. Peyton Manning

16. Rashard Mendenhall

17. Calvin Johnson

18. Reggie Wayne

19. Pierre Thomas

20. DeAngelo Williams

21. Chris Wells

22. Philip Rivers

23. Tom Brady

24. Miles Austin

– The second round saw a big run on quarterbacks.  Once again I just can’t grab a QB with the first 2 picks.  It’s against my code of fake football ethics.  Running backs or wide receivers for me please.  My options at RB were dwindling fast, but I had a difficult time choosing between Beanie, Moreno and Benson.  But for my money, Beanie has the highest upside of the 3.  Whisenhunt won’t put as much of the game in Leinart’s hands, especially with a back as talented as Wells showing his worth toward the end of last season.

– I am a little worried about DeAngelo Williams after Jon Stewart went crazy after D. Willy went down toward the end of the season.  I could even see Stewart out playing him this year, but any way you look at it he isn’t guaranteed the bulk of the carries.

– The same could be true for Pierre Thomas, but I am a little more concerned about him staying healthy than being the primary back.

– I think one of the best picks of round 2 was by Matt who grabbed Miles Austin with the last pick.  I thought about snagging him, but just liked Wells too much.  Austin could easily be a top 3 wide receiver with a full season as the #1 WR in Dallas. Witten will be his only real rival for looks unless Jones gets an itchy finger and tries for a Boldin/Marshall trade.

Round Three

25. Randy Moss

26. Brandon Marshall

27. Ronnie Brown

28. Vincent Jackson

29. Greg Jennings

30. Roddy White

31. Matt Schaub

32. Tony Romo

33. DeSean Jackson

34. Steve Slaton

35. Knowshon Moreno

36. Marion Barber

– It’s interesting to see how far Randy Moss fell.  Even in a not great season he was a fantasy stud with his ability to get into the endzone, but he is also starting to show his age whileWelker could be gone for a big chunk of time which will get Moss a lot of attention if Edelman doesn’t go nuts.  I like Moss here, but I’m still trying to decide if I like him earlier as well.

– I felt good about Vincent Jackson in the third.  The Chargers will once again have to rely on the passing game and VJax should continue to improve.

– Brandon Marshall’s value is still up in the air since we aren’t sure where he’ll end up, but if he can have a big year with Orton, he has a shot of having a big year anywhere.

– I think both Slaton and Barber went too early as they don’t have the starting job wrapped up for next season.  I won’t own a Texan’s running back this season unless they trade for Purple Jesus or his like.  I also won’t own a Cowboy running back unless Felix Jones really slips.  Jones could get the most touches next season, but his injury history is worrisome.  I’ll pass.

– My favorite pick of round 3 is probably Knowshon Moreno.  The Broncos are a bit of a question mark with Josh McDaniels taking multiple power trips, but Moreno is their back and Buckhalter, though awesome last year, isn’t getting any younger and should continue to pop up on the injury report.  And Moreno will have a full off season and preseason compared to his holdout last year.

Here are my rankings for the Super Bowl peppered with some “remember me hits.”  Let’s get it, as they say, on!

Quarterbacks:

1. Peyton Manning: In these here playoffs the Saints have forced at least one quarterback into retirement and another possibly into hiding/retirement/24/7 news cycle.  They will be coming after Peyton Manning with the force of Zeus’ own thunder! But then he’ll sidestep and throw a touchdown.  We saw the Jets’ #1 defense get to Manning early in the AFC Championship game and then the Manning Machine finally got warmed up and chewed them up and spat them out while throwing for 377 yards and 3 TD’s.  That’s the most passing yards given up by the Jets all year.  And the Saints don’t have as good a pass defense as the Jets. In the Saints’ last 6 meaningful games (not including week 17 when they rested starters) they have given up 303.5 passing yards per game.  Greg Williams wants his players to put some “remember me hits” on Peyton early.  Rex Ryan probably had the same game plan.

2. Drew Brees: He is probably the best all around fantasy quarterback going against the best all around real quarterback.  The Colts are vulnerable against the pass with their young defensive backs and unless Freeney and Mathis can pressure Brees consistently, he will be able to move the ball through the air.  The Saints did try to balance the run with the pass in the championship game. They had 23 rushes to 31 passes even though they only averaged 3 yards a carry.  I believe they’ll try a similar ratio against the Colts, so Brees’ numbers could be dampened just a little.

Running Backs:

1. Joseph Addai: He ran strong against the Jets’ tough run defense totaling 81 yards on 16 carries.  The Colts won’t all of the sudden try to run the ball down the Saints throats, but Addai could see similar to better numbers against a poor rushing defense, and I see him adding a touchdown.  Addai has been a little dinged up and the 2 weeks of rest should help him quite a bit.

2. Pierre Thomas: He says his ribs aren’t bothering him and he did have a decent game against a good Vikings rush defense.  The Colts have had good game plans against elite running backs, but PT won’t be their main focus and could sneak in a couple big runs.

3. Reggie Bush: Bush is the ultimate boom or bust (sounds a little like his girlfriend).  I almost put him above PT because he is always a threat to take the ball all the way.  But in the biggest game in the whole wide world of sports I think Payton trusts Thomas with the ball more.  Bush does elevate his game and could go off, but I’m playing it safe with PT and his 15-20 touches.

4. Donald Brown: He was clearly backing up Addai last week so it looks like he’s passed Mike Hart as he should have.  Coming off his injury I’ve seen a couple very nice runs from him, but for the most part he’s not doing enough to take many looks away from Addai and I doubt things will change much in the Super Bowl.

5. Mike Bell/Lynell Hamilton: Both of these guys have about the same chance of vulturing a touchdown from Pierre Thomas.

Wide Receivers:

1. Reggie Wayne: Garcon and Collie benefited from Wayne getting Revis-ed last week, but Revis didn’t get invited to the Super Bowl.  The Saints did slow Sidney Rice, but he still had 4 receptions for 43 yards and a TD.  The Saints are going to have their hands full with Garcon, Collie and Clark, so giving Wayne extra attention might be tough.

2. Marques Colston: Against the Vikings Drew Brees completed passes to 8 different players and only had a total of 17 completions.  Not one receiver had a great game and that has really been the way it has gone all season.  Colston is the Saints best receiver so he gets the #2 nod.

3. Pierre Garcon: He showed he could be the #1 guy without any downgrade in production.  Reggie Wayne is still the man and unless the Saints spend a lot of resources on shutting him down we should see Garcon’s numbers dip from last week’s game.

4.Devery Henderson: He’s leading the Saints in receiving in the playoffs and has scored as many touchdowns in the playoffs as he did all season with two.  You can’t discount a player who is hot in the playoffs.  Of course he could be shut out, but trying to pick a Saints receiver is tough no matter what you do, might as well go with the hot hand.

5. Robert Meachem: He’s been hurting, but seems to be healthy now and he would probably be my pick to pull another Braylon Edwards on the Colts defense.  The only problem with that is the Saints aren’t a run first team like the Jets, so it will be tougher to beat the Colts deep.

6. Austin Collie: Collie should see the biggest drop off from the Revis game, but you cannot count him out for a touchdown.  Manning will throw to the open guy. So get open!

7. Lance Moore: Just another Saints wide receiver to divvy up the receptions.  What ever happened to a #1 and #2 receiver that got a predetermined number of catches?  That never happens? Hmm, maybe I was watching darts.

Tight Ends:

1. Dallas Clark: This is a bit of a no-brainer based on his competition, but the Saints have been tough against tight ends.  They’ve only given up one TD to a TE and the was the future Hall of Famer Fred Davis. Clark is too good to shut out.

2. Dave Thomas: If I were Sean Payton I would play Thomas over Shockey based on hair alone, but also because Shockey is hurting.  I really wouldn’t want either Saints’ tight end, but the founder of Wendys isn’t hurting.

3. Jeremy Shockey: He says he will risk an even worse injury than he already has to play in the Super Bowl.  Well, that’s very William Wallace of you Jeremy, but I think they’ll go with the healthier guy.

Kickers:

1. Garrett Hartley: The Colts can interpretive dance the cliche of “bend and don’t break” and it is a beautiful display that will go off-broadway after the Super Bowl.  Hartley will have some chances to kick.

2. Matt Stover: I see the Colts converting their drives into touchdowns more often than the Saints.

Defense/Special Teams:

1. New Orleans Saints: I like the Colts to win this game, but with Roby and Bush returning kicks and punts and the Saints loving the turnover they have a little more upside.

2. Indianapolis Colts: This should be a high scoring game.  The Colts might be the safer defense since I see them having more points than that other team.

The 2009-2010 NFL playoffs has featured plenty of pass-happy teams. The good news is that 3 of the 4 remaining teams have an abundance of fantasy-relevant QB’s, WR’s, and TE’s. The bad news is that one of this weekend’s two matchups offers a much better situation than the other.

Sunday 3:00 EST

New York Jets @ Indianapolis

As you may have guessed, the AFC matchup is the weaker of the two games in terms of pass offense. This is due entirely to the Jets’ presence on both sides of the ball. As we’ve cautioned all season, the Colts’ offense is a must-play even against the toughest defenses, but the fact remains, this is not a good matchup if you need huge numbers out of Indy.

The Jets offense has regressed in fantasy as it has progressed in real life. As Mark Sanchez was reined in further and further each week, his mistakes went down, but the opportunity for offensive production went down with it. It’s a fine recipe for winning games with (or in spite of) a rookie QB, but it doesn’t produce yardage or touchdowns. If you’re looking for a silver lining here, it’s that Sanchez may be forced to throw more often if the Colts take an early lead. That said, if Sanchez throws more often, you’re faced with the original problem, which is the likelihood of multiple turnovers. It’s still difficult to recommend anyone on this offense. Cotchery’s no sure thing to break 50 yards, and Keller is the weakest of the 4 remaining TE’s.

NYJ: Sanchez 0, Cotchery -1, Edwards -1, Keller -1

The interesting twist for the Indy offense is whether Darrelle Revis will primarily cover Reggie Wayne (as he was used to cover #1 receivers most of the season), or if he will be moved around the field depending on the defensive package (as he did last week against the Chargers). There are arguments to be made on both sides. The Jets used Revis to shut down #1 WR’s all year, so it could be argued that last week was an aberration, something designed specifically for the Chargers’ offense. On the other hand, it could be argued that the Colts in some ways resemble the Chargers — they have a clear #1 WR, but they also feature a dominant receiving TE, and at least 2 reasonable talented complementary WR’s. For now, my judgment is that Dallas Clark is a safer option than Wayne, if only because of the possibilities: Revis could cover (and severely limit) Reggie Wayne all game, but it’s unlikely that the Jets defense will be able to shut down Dallas Clark. With Revis switching coverage last week, Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates were neck and neck in catches and yardage. That’s not to say Wayne is a terrible option, but if one of the two is going be limited, I’d bet it’s Wayne and not Clark.

IND: Manning -1, Wayne -1, Clark 0, Garcon -1, Collie -1

Sunday 6:40 EST

Minnesota @ New Orleans

Now this is a game you can feel good about. Both pass offenses are clicking, producing yardage and (especially) touchdowns. Neither pass defense is particularly stout — even if it looks like they “shut down” the opposing offenses last week, other factors (Romo’s inability to complete throws downfield under pressure, Warner’s injury and its effect on his accuracy and arm strength) played a role in the suppressed totals.

Sidney Rice is clearly the highlight of the Vikings receiving corps, and he continues to physically dominate opposing corners. On 2 of his long catches last week, Rice didn’t even have much separation from the corner, but Favre put it within reach and Rice outpositioned the covering defender. The Saints secondary is a “bend don’t break” kind of unit, and while Darren Sharper has received plenty of (deserved) credit for his interceptions, he doesn’t cover pass routes particularly well and will give up yardage when he gambles. Harvin and Shiancoe were disappointments last week as they each caught just 1 pass (and while Shiancoe’s was a touchdown, it happened after the game was already in hand). Harvin worries me more than Shiancoe — we know that the TE is a favorite of Favre’s from 25-30 yards in, and that won’t change.

MIN: Favre +1, Rice +1, Shiancoe +1, Berrian, Harvin

I’m just ever so slightly more concerned about the Saints offense in this game. The Vikings’ front 7 consistently tore through the Cowboy’s pass protection. I trust Brees to make smart decisions with the ball, but if he gets hurried, the Saints may not have time to set up their downfield shots. Still, it’s a minor quibble. The bigger issue in terms of fantasy is why Meachem disappeared last week. Meachem did break free and was targeted downfield once, but Brees overthrew him. The Saints also “lost” a possession from Reggie Bush’s punt return TD, so that’s at least one drive in which Meachem could have been targeted a few more times. Still, we have to now consider Meachem a co- #2 WR (along with Devery Henderson, who had a gorgeous 44-yard TD on a flea-flicker) after Colston. Meachem had an amazing run of TD’s during the season, but that doesn’t help you this week, especially since he may have hurt his ankle during last week’s game. Now that I’ve written those words publicly, Meachem will probably leapfrog Henderson in production again, but that’s the nature of the Saints offense. I don’t think Shockey will match Witten’s numbers (10-98) from last week, but he may grab a few more yards than usual.

NO: Brees 0, Colston 0, Meachem -1, Henderson +1, Shockey +1

Another weekend of playoff games, another blowout fest until the very last game, but even that game wasn’t really in doubt toward the end.  Hopefully next week we’ll get a little more excitement with Favre in the bayou and Manning navigating around Revis Island.  Here are my thoughts and postulations and consternations on the divisional games.  Read at your own risk:

Brett Favre: No matter what you think of him he will always be remembered for his “pants on the ground” locker room celebration, which should automatically disqualify him from Canton.  Favre threw for four TD’s and 234 yards while humiliating the Cowboys and gets to play in another dome on Sunday which he seems to like.

Sidney Rice: He’s just getting stronger in the big games and will continue to be Favre’s favorite receiver.  He tallied 141 yards and 3 touchdowns and is slowly rising on draft boards.  Much of his value is tied to Favre so if you want him on your team next season you’ll have to put up with Favreageddon this offseason.

Tony Romo: The Vikings absolutely demolished the Cowboy’s offensive line and pillaged Tony Romo’s manhood.  For as often as he was running from Flash Dance Headbanded Mullet Man it’s amazing he didn’t throw more than one interception.  There is no reason to think he won’t be a top fantasy QB again next season.

Felix Jones: Watching him run in comparison to Marion Barber was a bit like watching a remake of the Tortoise and the Hare, but in this version the hare’s wife is being held hostage by terrorists and he must beat the tortoise or his wife gets it.  Barber has beaten his body to death with the way he runs and looks like he’s lost a step.  Jones has given us some hope that he can stay healthy while getting 15 carries a game.  I am not going to feel good about taking either, but Jones will get his opportunity next season.

Jason Witten: With no time to pass Tony Romo had to get it off quickly to Witten so his 10 receptions for 98 yards isn’t too surprising. He started off slow this season, but finished strong.  He’s not as athletic and fast as Gates, Davis, Finley, etc, but he’ll continue to be productive in the Cowboy’s dynamic offense.  Thankfully you’ll be able to get him later in the draft next season.

Mark Sanchez: He’s doing his best Trent Dilfer impersonation, but I’m still sticking to my prediction that the passing game will prevail and that Peyton Manning will pick them apart, but as Sanchez develops he’ll have a great running game and defense to compliment his skills.

Shonn Greene: He ran for 128 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries and has seemingly taken over as the lead back and is making a strong case for starting camp as the #1 running back next season. It’s going to be hard not to push Greene on you next season, but there is a good chance Tom Jones will be back and Leon Washington should be ready to go as well.  It will be extremely hard to get Greene in a position of any value.

Philip Rivers: It felt a little like the Bolts took the Jets too lightly.  I could be wrong, but Rivers had only thrown 9 interceptions all year and threw 2 killer INT’s in this all important game.  Nate Kaeding didn’t help the situation, but Rivers just didn’t look sharp or ready for how well the Jets played.

Vincent Jackson: The Jets tried to confuse the Bolts by not shadowing VJax with Revis, and even though VJax finished the game with 111 yards they kept San Diego off balance. He was a great value pick this year, but will probably go higher and be drafted about where he should be next season.

LaDainian Tomlinson: Even though he was a TD machine once again this season he has lost more than a step.  Sproles clearly outplayed him against the Jets.  He will have to take a big pay cut to be the goal line back next year or he’ll be released.

Reggie Bush: In the rushing matchups article I wrote, “Reggie Bush will either have 10 touches and 3 touchdowns or 5 touches and a big fat Kardashian butt zero.” Nice riding of the fence Doc! Yeah, well, that’s what I do.  He ended up being much closer to the first prediction than the second with 2 TDs and around 200 total yards.  Hopefully this will keep people drafting him somewhat early so you can take someone who will get more than 5-10 touches a game and can stay healthy.

Drew Brees: He accumulated 247 yards and 3 touchdowns on his way to yet another great game.  You can’t say enough good things about Brees so I won’t try. He gets the Vikings suspect pass defense next week and his O-line should be more stable than Dallas’.  In the last 8 games the Saints have allowed 1.1 sacks per game which is second in the league.

Marques Colston: He looked like the elite receiver he should have been all year.  He’s just too tall and athletic and as long as he’s getting the opportunities I think he’ll have a good playoff run.

Jeremy Shockey: The grease from his hair was shipped in special from The Jersey Shore, but his doucheness was all his own.  He caught a TD while limping around, which I have to believe was done to bang more drunk chicks.

Kurt Warner: I guess Kurt didn’t pray hard enough or God just loves New Orleans more.  Wait, what was the whole hurricane thing about?  Whatever the reason, the Saints just destroyed the Cardinals.  Warner had to leave the game before halftime after getting blindsided and then he left the game again because his team had also been blindsided.  Will Warner retire? I think it’s probably 50/50 right now, but Cardinal’s fans better hope Leinart isn’t their QB next season.

Larry Fitzgerald: Tony Siragusa made an extremely astute observation when he said the Cardinals need to throw it to Larry Fitzgerald more. After they were getting killed they finally started throwing to him and he ended up with decent stats, but it was way too little too late.  Fitz is still an elite receiver and will go early in drafts, but keep an eye on that QB sitch.

Beanie Wells: He scored a TD, but that was about it. Beanie will be the main back going into next year, at least by a small margin, but he still isn’t trusted to block.  If he can get that squared away and take over on the goal line he could be a top RB next season, but don’t bank on it yet.  Hightower is trusted and that goes a long way.

Peyton Manning: Not since Australopithecus began to walk upright have we seen such evolution in the passing game. Or maybe it’s just that the NFL doesn’t let defenders touch receivers or quarterbacks, but whatever the reason, Peyton Manning can take over a game unlike any player in the NFL  I’m having maybe a bit too much love for Peyton’s skills, but he seems to have taken his game to another level.  The Ravens played extremely well on defense, but Manning took what he was given and didn’t try forcing the ball and it never really looked to be in doubt.  He gets to actually play the Jets this weekend and I bet you can guess who I think will win.

Reggie Wayne: He’s an elite receiver and showed it by catching 8 balls for 63 yards and a touchdown against a tough Ravens defense.  Now, as long as he doesn’t go bustin’ caps in random asses he could someday be the most beloved Indy receiver of all time.

Donald Brown: He split time with Mike Hart while backing up Joseph Addai, but on a couple runs showed some burst and moves that Hart just doesn’t have.  Expectations were fairly high for him this season, but hopefully his poor year will drop him into a manageable draft slot where he could have some value next season.

Joe Flacco: He was completely out played by the Colts, but I still think he has the ability to be a very good QB in this here league.  His injuries, lack of explosive wide receivers, and the emergence of Ray Rice made this season a running game centric one, and if they give him some help at receiver Flacco could easily balance out that offense.

Ray Rice: The Colts contained him, but “containing” him equals 127 total yards. I’ve said it before, but if McGahee is let go, Ray Rice will probably be my #3 overall pick ahead of MJD.  Unlike Matt Forte, Ray Rice can make his own holes and break long runs.  Forte and Slaton have left me a little gun shy of young running backs coming off big years, but Rice will not disappoint.