After 3 weeks of NFL football, we start to see a real story develop from target and snap rate data. Now that we have more meat on the bone to digest, it is easier to spot players that are trending up or down. Let’s jump right in, but first, we’ll start with a Target Report refresh for the first-time readers…

Weekly Refresh 

Taking inventory of target share (TS) and snap share (SS) data is a critical tool to help with start-sit decisions, and provide a framework for buy-low/sell-high trade candidates. Every Wednesday the Target Report will highlight key TS/SS data and takeaways from the weekend. 

Success in fantasy football is built around opportunity, especially consistent opportunity. Don’t get caught up only chasing fantasy points. Peyton Manning focused more on what happened between endzones versus what transpired on the scoreboard. It is important not to overreact to a poor fantasy outing when the usage is still there. Or overreact to a fantasy explosion for a player that barely found the field or was barely targeted in the game. Trust the data and trust the process…

Exhibit-A: Antonio Brown created a fantasy frenzy following his opening night fantasy outing (23.7 PPR points). After looking under the hood, Mike Evans and AB were nearly equal in targets (AB-7  ME-6). But Evans dominated AB in week 1 snap share, 93.8% to 64.%. This does not mean AB had zero chance of repeating or outperforming Evans in week 2. The numbers suggested Evans had a better chance of rebounding from week 1 than Antonio Brown had to repeat his performance (all things equal).

If you are new to target share (TS) data, below is a breakdown of my TS tiers. 

  • Set-it and forget-it : Target share > (greater than) 20%. Any pass catcher receiving over 20% TS should remain in lineups, even following an off-week in fantasy production. I consider any player over 25% TS an elite fantasy asset.
  • I like you, but don’t love you range :  Target share 15-19%. We should feel confident leaving these players in a 2nd or 3rd WR/RB or flex spot. Depending on the offense, this might be the highest range we see a player in a run-heavy scheme (i.e. week 1 Jarvis Landry – Cleveland Browns). 15% TS is my “Mason-Dixon line” when it comes to fantasy assets that I am interested in rostering or not. 
  • Risky Business: Target share 10-14%. You will see players in this range pop in fantasy production, but don’t be fooled into relying on consistent weekly production. These players are viable options when our rosters are thin with BYE weeks or have multiple players out with injuries. Low-end fantasy relevant TE’s usually fall in this range. 
  • Fool’s Gold: Target share < (less than) 10%. Leave these players on the waivers. Let your ill-informed league-mates waste precious waivers claims and FAAB $$ OR use these players as trade bait. We will not waste word count on these players in the weekly target report. We can have a player in this range produce for one week, but I would not trust them in any lineup. Only for the deepest of leagues or desperate of plays. 

Another data point referenced weekly in the Target Report is snap share (SS). This represents the percentage of offensive snaps the player was on the field. Taking note of SS trends will assist us in identifying players that are worth putting in waiver claims for or to drop. 

Arizona Cardinals

Player Target Share Snap Share
DeAndre Hopkins 18 % (wk2 11% – wk1 25%) 91% (wk2 96.7% – wk1 88.4%)
A.J. Green 18% (wk2 16.7% – wk1 18.8%) 79% (wk2 83.6% – wk1 79.7%)
Christian Kirk 24% (wk2 11.1% – wk1 15.6%) 57% (wk2 62.3% – wk1 56.5%)
Rondale Moore 6% (wk 22.2% – wk1 15.6%) 34% (wk2 45.9% – wk1 29%)
Chase Edmonds 24% (wk2 13.9% – wk1 12.5%) 66% (wk2 63.9% – wk1 58%)
Maxx Williams 9% (wk2 19.4% – wk1 3.1%) 76% (wk2 73.8% – wk1 79.7)

Quick Hit: Every Target Report, so far this year, provided warning signs that starting Rondale Moore was as a trap. In week 3, the R.Moore express came to a screeching halt. Moore produced 2.4 PPR points and probably cost a few folks their matchups. If you followed the Target Report trends from week 1 & 2, TS and SS data pointed towards A.J. Green being the more reliable 2nd option behind Hopkins. Green kept it going for a third week, recording 15 more snaps than Kirk and 30 more than… Moore. His 18% TS was his third outing over my “Mason-Dixon line” of 15% TS and 2nd week in a row with double digit PPR points. Green is a WR3/4 with Hopkins as the Alpha. Kirk popped again in fantasy production, but was only on the field for roughly half of Arizona’s offensive snaps. We will continue to watch a weekly see-saw between Kirk and Moore. Their snap rates will not yield consistent fantasy production. As injuries continue to pile up and BYE weeks begin, Kirk and Moore are good options to consider in spot starts. We’ve seen their potential ceiling in this offense and we are unlikely to find equal upside on waivers, as the season progresses. Both are WR4/5 week-to-week, with top 10 upside.

Atlanta Falcons

Player Target Share Snap Share
Calvin Ridley 31% (wk2 20.8% – wk1 22.9%) 95% (wk2 83.3% – wk1 84.7%)
Kyle Pitts 8% (wk2 12.5% – wk1 22.9%) 84% (wk2 79.2% – wk1 68.1%)
Mike Davis 11% (wk2 14.5% – wk1 17.1%) 60% (wk2 63.9% – wk1 75%)
Cordarrelle Patterson 19% (wk2 12.5% – wk1 5.7) 42% (wk2 33.3% – wk1 33.3%)
Russell Gage OUT (wk2 14.6% – wk1 5.7%) OUT (wk2 52.8% – wk1 68.1%)
Olamide Zaccheaus 17% (wk2 8% – wk1 0%) 69% (wk2 59%  – wk1 27%)

Quick Hit: A team usually rich in fantasy production, the Falcons fantasy output has dried up like a college kids’ paycheck on a Thursday night. Ridley is the only guy we can confidently fire up on a weekly basis. Pitts was a trap all offseason at his ADP, but at least Atlanta is putting him on the field. Kyle is 2nd on the team in snaps, only behind the talented Mr. Ridley, but has declined in targets for the third straight week. The rookie TE ‘could’ come to life later in the season, if he and Matt Ryan are able to get more in-sync (need a film guy to tell us what’s going on here). Leaving Pitts in your starting lineup, waiting for him to hit, is a tough way to go about winning your weekly matchups. Patterson’s usage continues to trend up. CP increased in TS, SS, and fantasy production for a third straight week. His receiving work is where we find his value. Mike Davis continues to dominate the groundwork, but Patterson nearly doubled him in targets (7 CP – 4 MD). Cordarrelle turned those 7 targets into 6 receptions for 82 yards, leading the whole Atlanta offense in receiving yards last week. CP should be viewed as a RB2/3 in PPR leagues. Davis’ targets are slowly slipping away from him, but he is still the more efficient runner. View him as a low-ceiling RB2. 

Baltimore Ravens

Player Target Share Snap Share
Marquise Brown 23% (wk2 38.5% – wk1 20%) 67% (wk2 72.4% – wk1  69.1%)
Sammy Watkins 23% (wk2 26.9% – wk1 26.7%) 79% (wk2 92.1% – wk1 82.4%)
Mark Andrews 23% (wk2 19.2% – wk1 16.7%) 79% (wk2 75% – wk1 80.9%)
Ty’Son Williams 3% (wk2 7.7% – wk1 13.3%) 50% (wk2 48.7% – wk1 51.5%)

Quick Hit: Holy air yards, Marquise Brown missed out on a potential overall WR1 finish in week 3. Hopefully he put extra-time on the juggs machine this week. This offense goes as Lamar’s legs go. LJax is only QB25 in pass attempts this season. Low passing volume limits the weekly upside for any BAL receiver. The > 20% TS put both Marquise Brown and Sammy Watkins in the weekly flex conversation. Devin Duvernay peaked over double digit TS (10%), but remained below 60% SS for a third straight week. BAL does not throw the ball enough for the former Longhorn to earn a bench spot on any fantasy roster. The looming return of Rashod Bateman only further lowers the ceiling on this passing game. Sell high on Watkins or Brown if they happen to pop in week 4. It was nice to see Andrews come alive in week 3. Given the current state of fantasy Tight Ends, Andrews’ TS and SS put him in the set-it and forget-it range for the position. This RB room has become un-roster-able. 

Buffalo Bills

Player Target Share Snap Share
Stefon Diggs 23% (wk2 24.2% – wk1 27.5%) 75% (wk2 78.5% – wk1 92.9%)
Cole Beasley 30% (wk2 12.1% – wk1 25.%) 66% (wk2 60% – wk1 90.6%)
Emmanuel Sanders 14% (wk2 18.1% – wk1 15.7%) 80% (wk2 76.9% – wk1 92.9%)
Dawson Knox 11% (wk2 9% – wk1 8%)  78% (wk2 83% – wk1 56%)

Quick Hit: Josh Allen is all-in on passing the ball, ranking 4th in pass attempts this season. If you read last week, you already rostered Emmanuel Sanders. Beasley is the most risky of the three wideouts. His healthy TS, on a pass happy offense, provides a safer floor than other wideouts recording less than 70 of their teams offensive snaps. Beasley is a rich man’s Hunter Renfrow. Both Beasley and Sanders are weekly WR2/3 with upside. Dawson Knox is TE8 on the year and should be considered in starting lineups in games where BUF is expected to be in shootouts. I would be worried about his output this weekend against a bottom dwelling Houston team. The Bills shouldn’t need many points to put this team away.

Carolina Panthers

Player Target Share Snap Share
Chuba Hubbard 14.7% 54.8%
DJ Moore 35.3% (wk2 28.9% – wk1 22.9%) 74% (wk2 88.2% – wk1 81.2%)
Terrace Marshall Jr 14.7% (wk2 7.9% – wk1 17.1%) 61.6% (wk2 51.3% – wk1 53.1%)
Robby Anderson 5.9% (wk2 15.8% – wk1 8.6%) 64.4% (wk2 73.3% – wk1 81.2%)
Dan Arnold 11.8% (wk2 10.5% – wk1 9%) 37% (wk2 28.9% – wk1 51.6%)

Quick Hit: After a promising start to the season, following an injury plagued 2020, Christian McCaffrey will miss a few weeks with a hamstring injury. Chuba Hubbard had no issues sliding in to CMC’s shoes. Hubbard finished tied for 2nd in team targets (14.7% TS) and averaged a healthy 4.7 ypc, get him if you can. Keep in mind, he is only a 2-3 week rental until CMC returns. Given McCaffrey’s injury history, Chuba is a premium handcuff and should remain on rosters the rest of the season. DJ Moore is an elite fantasy asset, and it was on full display on TNF. A big YIKES, again, for Anderson drafters. Per CAR Head Coach Matt Rhule, the team needs to get Anderson more involved. This buys him one more week on my bench, but he is flirting with drop status. TE Dan Arnold creeped over double-digit TS for a second week in a row, but his snaps leave much to be desired. 

Chicago Bears

Player Target Share Snap Share
Allen Robinson 30% (wk2 16.7% – wk1 27.5%) 89% (wk2 80% – wk1 91.3%)
Darnell Mooney 20% (wk2 33.3% – wk1 17.5%) 98% (wk2 89.2% – wk1 100%)
David Montgomery 20% (wk2 16.7% – wk1 2.5%) 82% (wk2 80% – wk1 59.4%) 
Cole Kmet 20% (wk2 4.2% – wk1 17%) 96% (wk 72.3% – wk1 73.9%)
Damien Williams 0% (wk2 12.5% – wk1 12.5%) 1.6% (wk2 23.1% – wk1 43.5%)
Marquise Goodwin 5% (wk2 12.5% – wk1 10%) % (wk2 47.7% – wk1 37.7%)

Quick Hit: It is hard to get excited about any Chicago skill player when the offense only logs 20 pass attempts (2nd lowest PATT of any starting QB in week 3). Defensive End, Myles Garrett reminded the Bears last Sunday why he was the first overall pick in the 2017 NFL draft. Look for a bounce back this week when the Lions come to Soldier Field. Do not over invest though, this matchup carries the 2nd lowest point total in week 4. Razzball’s own, Rudy Gamble, projects Robinson as a WR3 (WR30) and Mooney outside the top 50 (WR55). Montgomery is a weekly RB2 with RB1 upside. 

Cincinnati Bengals

Player Target Share Snap Share
Ja’Marr Chase 28% (wk2 13.3% – wk1 25.9%) 83% (wk2 92.7% – wk1 89.9%)
Tee Higgins OUT (wk2 33.3% – wk1 18.5%)  OUT (wk2 90.9% – wk1 73.9%)
Joe Mixon 6% (wk2 6.7% – wk1 14.8%) 74% (wk2 83.6% – wk1 78.3%)
Tyler Boyd 33% (wk2 30% – wk1 14.8%) 79% (wk2 87.3% – wk1 73.9%)

Quick Hit: Another discouraging outing from a Bengals offense that was expected to take leaps forward in Burrows sophomore campaign. Joe continues to finish towards the bottom of the league in pass attempts, finishing dead last in week3 (18 PATT). Talk about sustainability concerns. Chase and Boyd are potential sell high candidates following their double digit fantasy outings. I am interested in Chase’s long term value. Despite the low volume, Chase and Boyd should remind in lineups with elite level TS numbers. 

Cleveland Browns

Player Target Share Snap Share
Odell Beckham Jr 29% 64% 
Austin Hooper 10% (wk2 23.8% – wk1 10.7%) 60% (wk2 68.9% – wk1 64.4%)
Kareem Hunt 23% (wk2 4.8% – wk1 10.7%) 41% (wk2 37.7% – wk1 47.5%)

Quick Hit: Odell made his 2021 debut, and fantasy drafters couldn’t be more pleased with his elite level target share. Unfortunately, another low volume passing offense. OBJ is a weekly WR2/3, but with an attractive upside as long as Landry is sidelined. Every time I turn to a Cleveland game it feels like Hunt is dominating snaps and usage. Another year and another season the Browns have two top-end fantasy RBs. Both Chubb and Hunt currently rank as top 10 fantasy RBs (KH RB7 – NC RB 10). Hooper is a desperation play at TE.

Dallas Cowboys

Player Target Share Snap Share
Amari Cooper 15% (wk2 18.5% – wk1 27.6%) 86% (wk2 96.8% – wk1 89.2%)
CeeDee Lamb 12% (wk2 33.3% – wk1 25.9%) 86% (wk2 96.8% – wk1 73.5%)
Dalton Schultz 27% (wk2 7.4% – wk1 10.3%) 69% (wk2 76.2% – wk1 68.7%)
Blake Jarwin 8% (wk2 14.8% – wk1 6.9%) 56% (wk2 46.8% – wk1 57.8%) 
Tony Pollard 4% (wk2 11.1% – wk1 6.9%) 38% (wk2 33.9% – wk1 24.1) 

Quick Hit: Monday Night was the Dalton Schultz show. Schultz is averaging a 70% snap rate for the season, compared to Blake Jarwins 54%. Dalton has become the TE to roster in Dallas. Expect bounce back games from both Cooper and Lamb. Cedrick Wilson continues to be the name to watch with Gallup sidelined. Wilson reached 15% TS in week 3. He should only be considered on benches in extremely deep formats. 12-person leagues should keep him on waivers. 

Denver Broncos

Player Target Share Snap Share
Noah Fant 12% (wk2 17.7% – wk1 22.2%) 87% (wk2 76.8% – wk1 77.3%)
Tim Patrick 20% (wk2 11.8% – wk1 11.1%) 76% (wk2 73.9% – wk1 69.7%)
KJ Hamler 12% (wk2 8.8% – wk1 11.1%) 22% (wk2 71% – wk1 36.4%)
Courtland Sutton 20% (wk2 35.3% – wk1 8.3%) 76% (wk2 76.8% – wk1 80.3%)

Quick Hit: I was excited to watch Hamler take advantage of a larger role in this offense, but he has been put on the shelf for the remainder of 2021 (season ending ACL injury). There will be a 4th option that emerges in between now and Jeudy’s return, but they shouldn’t be trusted on anyone’s roster. Sutton, Patrick, and Fant are the only pass catchers we can trust out of Denver (and in that order). Sutton is a weekly WR2, and Patrick a WR3/Flex play. Fant’s TS is heading in the wrong direction, but staying in double digits for the third week. Rudy projects Fant to finish as the TE #7 in week 4. 

Detroit Lions

Player Target Share Snap Share
T.J. Hockenson 6% (wk2 25% – wk1 17.5%) 84% (wk2 93% – wk1 84.8%)
D’Andre Swift 23% (wk2 13.9% – wk1 19.3%) 56% (wk2 63.2% – wk1 68.5%)
Jamaal Williams 6% (wk2 8.3% – wk1 15.8%) 49% (wk2 38.6% – wk1 34.8%)
Quintez Cephus 3% (wk2 19.4% – wk1 12.3%) 71% (wk2 89.5% – wk1 34.8%)
Trinity Benson 3% (wk2 8.3% – wk1 10.5%) 38% (wk2 42.1% – wk1 53.3%)
Kalif Raymond 32% (wk2 6% – wk1 7%) 75% (wk2 63% – wk1 77%)

Quick Hit: Kalif Raymond did receive a lot of pre-season chatter, but it seems as if the WR trends reset every week in DET. I loaded up on Cephus last week, but couldn’t click ‘drop’ fast enough heading into week 4. Hockenson is the only DET pass catcher worth rostering and trusting in fantasy lineups. Swift continues his RB1 campaign (RB7), with Jamaal not too far behind (RB14). Williams is a RB3/Flex play. 

Green Bay Packers

Player Target Share Snap Share
Devante Adams 55% (wk2 33.3% – wk1 25%) 89% (wk2 87.7% – wk170.2%)
Aaron Jones 6% (wk2 22.2% – wk1 7.1%) 73% (wk2 69.2% – wk1 49.1%)
Marquez Valdes-Scantling 12% (wk2 14.8% – wk1 25%) 63% (wk2 66.2% – wk1 63.2%)
Randall Cobb 3% (wk2 11.1% – wk1 3.6%) 33% (wk 18.5% – wk1 0%)
Robert Tonyan 3% (wk2 11.1% – wk1 14.3%) 73% (wk2 43.1% – wk1 49.1%)

Quick Hits: That is the kind of usage we expected from Adams when he was drafted in the middle of the first round this summer. MVS is the only other GB WR worth a roster spot. Cobbs snaps continue to increase, but the targets have yet to follow. Keep him on waivers. Tonyan’s snaps almost doubled in week 3, but his targets were nearly non-existent. If Robert can hold onto the snaps, expect a bounce back from him in the coming weeks. 

Houston Texans

Player Target Share Snap Share
Brandin Cooks 39.3% (wk2 48.3% – wk1 21.2%) 94.5% (wk2 91.8% – wk1 78.2%)
Anthony Miller 21.4% 63.6%
Jordan Akins 17.9% (wk2 7% – wk1 6%) 61.8% (wk2 63% – wk1 60%)

Quick Hits: No HOU RB recorded over 1 target, even though the Texans trailed the entire game. David Johnson led in RB snaps for another week, but only found the field for 38% SS. I wouldn’t trust any of the three (DJ, Ingram, Lindsay) near a starting lineup. Brandin Cooks continues his elite usage, but mark this as your warning! QB David Mills will be tested with brutal upcoming matchups (@BUF wk3 – vs NE wk4). It will be hard to trust any Texan, yet alone, Cooks the next two weeks. Recording his first snaps as a Texan, Anthony Miller had a solid outing. He is worth a bench stash in 12-man or larger leagues. Akins jumped into double digit TS, but has yet to reach over 8 PPR points. Keep him on waivers. 

Indianapolis Colts

Player Target Share Snap Share
Nyheim Hines 16% (wk2 5.5% – wk1 21.1%) 56% (wk2 37.3% – wk1 44.7%)
Jonathan Taylor 8% (wk2 2.9% – wk1 8.9%) 48% (wk2 44.8% – wk1 55.3%)
Zach Pascal 19% (wk2 16.7% – wk1 13.2%) 89% (wk2 91% – wk1 90.8%)
Michael Pittman Jr 32% (wk2 33.3% – wk1 10.5%) 93% (wk2 89.6% – wk1 97.4%)
Jack Doyle 5% (wk2 22.2% – wk1 10.5%) 57% (wk2 74.6% – wk1 59.2%)
Parris Campbell 11% (wk2 0% – wk1 8%) 80% (wk2 0% – wk3 61%)

Quick Hit: Pittman continues his hot streak with another week over 30% TS! That is an elite target rate paired with a healthy snap rate. He is a weekly Wr2/3 for as long as his usage remains. Pascal logged another double digit TS week and healthy snap count, but was only able to haul 2 of his 7 targets. His efficiency needs to increase in order to trust him in lineups. The return of Parris Campbell will continue to muddle the waters for Pascal. Keep Campbell on a watch list if his targets and snaps continue to increase. Don’t waste your time with this TE group. 

Jacksonville Jaguars

Player Target Share Snap Share
DJ Chark Jr. 18% (wk2 12.1% – wk1 17.6%) 87% (wk2 80.4% – wk1 83.8%)
Marvin Jones Jr. 24% (wk2 33.3% – wk1 17.6%) 97% (wk2 87.5% – wk1 90.5%)
Laviska Shenault Jr. 12% (wk2 21.2% – wk1 17.6%) 65% (wk2 80.4% – wk1 70.3%)
James Robinson 18% (wk2 9.1% – wk1 11.8%) 59% (wk2 73.2% – wk1 63.5%)

Quick Hit: DJ and MJJ are the only two JAX wideouts worth rostering. Shenault continues to record double-digit TS, but at the end of the day he is the 3rd-4th passing option on this team. Putting my money where my mouth is, I dropped Shenault in a number of leagues for guys with more upside. I just don’t see a situation where we confidently can put him in a starting lineup, with Chark and Jones healthy. Not to mention, Shenaults work is primarily around the line of scrimmage (low EV targets).

Kansas City Chiefs

Player Target Share Snap Share
Tyreek Hill 16% (wk2 12.9% – wk1 41.6%) 73% (wk2 98% – wk1 72.3%)
Travis Kelce 25% (wk2 25.8% – wk1 19.4%) 87% (wk2 86.3% – wk1 84.6%)
Mecole Hardman 9% (wk2 25.8% – wk1 8.3%)  65% (wk2 78.4% – wk1 69.2%)
Demarcus Robinson 5% (wk2 12.9% – wk1 5.5%) 72% (wk2 58.5% -wk1 73.8%)

Quick Hit: It is clear that the Chiefs are still searching for a reliable third option behind Hill/Kelce. Hardman hasn’t been able to take advantage of this opportunity. Unless we start to see consistent usage, out of Hardman, Robinson, or Pringle, all three should remain on waivers. Pringle hit 14% TS in week 3, but barely reached 6% in weeks 1 & 2. His snaps have steadily increased (wk3 38% – wk2 22% – wk1 17%), but are nowhere near a level to consider fantasy relevant. The fact the Chiefs are kicking the tires on Josh Gordon says all you need to know. The 3rd/4th passing option in KC has not been a reliable fantasy option for a number of years now. 

Los Angeles Chargers

Player Target Share Snap Share
Keenan Allen 32% (wk2 19.5% – wk1 27.7%) 83% (wk2 91.5% – wk1 82.7%)
Mike Williams 24% (wk2 24.4% – wk1 25.5%) 73% (wk2 76.1% – wk1 75.3%)
Jared Cook 8% (wk2 12.2% – wk1 17%) 70% (wk2 59.2% – wk1 58%)
Austin Ekeler 16% (wk2 22% – wk1 0%) 74% (wk2 63.4% – wk1 58%) 

Quick Hit: Mike Williams, Keenan Allen, and Austin Ekeler should not leave a starting lineup for the foreseeable future. Cook is the only guy on this list not worth a roster spot. 

Los Angeles Rams

Player Target Share Snap Share
Cooper Kupp 32% (wk2 36.7% – wk1 38.5%) 82% (wk2 100% – wk1 94.2%)
Robert Woods  16% (wk2 30% – wk1 15.4%) 88% (wk2 98.3% – wk1 76.9%)
Van Jefferson 16% (wk2 10% – wk1 11.5%) 77% (wk2 91.5% – wk1 69.2%)
Tyler Higbee 13% (wk2 3.3% – wk1 23.1%) 75% (wk2 100% – wk1 100%)
Darrell Henderson Jr. OUT (wk2 16.7% – wk1 3.8%) OUT (wk2 67.8% – wk1 94.2%)
DeSean Jackson 13% (wk2 0% – wk1 8) 32% (wk2 5% – wk1 27%)

Quick Hit: The only red flag here is the 32% from DeSean Jackson. Many of you made him a top waiver priority this week. Prepare to be burned from the boom-bust that is DeSean Jackson. Let your league-mates play with that fire. Woods continues to be one of the biggest disappointments this year, outside of Robby Anderson. Bobby Trees continues to find the field at a high clip, only trailing Kupp by 6 snaps for the entire season (161 CK – 155 RW). It is hard to stomach watching him in our starting lineups. Keep him on the bench, if you do not want to roll the dice for another week, but don’t drop him..yet. 

Las Vegas Raiders

Player Target Share Snap Share
Darren Waller 16% (wk2 18.9% – wk1 19%)  80% (wk2 92.4% – wk1 94.2%)
Henry Ruggs 16% (wk2 18.9% – wk1 8.9%) 58% (wk2 66.7% – wk1 65.1%)
Hunter Renfrow 14% (wk2 18.9% – wk1 16%) 52% (wk2 43.9% – wk1 54.7%)
Bryan Edwards 12% (wk2 8.1% – wk1 8.9%) 76% (wk2 74.2% – wk1 66.3%)
Kenyan Drake 14% (wk2 16.2% – wk1 8.9%) 43% (wk2 71.2% – wk1 47.7%)

Quick Hit: Another week down and we did learn a little more about this receiving core. Waller continues to be a ‘set it and forget it’ at the TE position despite two “down” weeks. Edwards is dominating Ruggs & Renfrow in snaps, despite trailing both in fantasy points. The numbers say that Edwards is the WR to own in LV. He should be rostered in more leagues. Renfrow is a low end PPR asset, with Ruggs more boom-bust.

Miami Dolphins

Player Target Share Snap share
DeVante Parker 14% (wk2 20.5% – wk1 25.9%) 77% (wk2 74.3% – wk1 83.3%)
Jaylen Waddle 27% (wk2 18.2% – wk1 22.2%) 88% (wk2 63.5% – wk1 79.6%)
Myles Gaskin 12% (wk2 11.4% – wk1 18.5%) 52% (wk2 60.8% – wk1 53.7%)
Mike Gesicki 24% (wk2 13.6% – wk1 7.4%) 66% (wk2 63.5% – wk1 38.9%) 

Quick Hit: Somehow Jacoby Brissett provided the fantasy usage in week 3 that many hoped for out of this team during the summer. Gesicki finally got his lion’s share of targets. 2020 first round draft pick, Jaylen Waddle, led MIA in targets and snaps. Albert Wilson was an afterthought with the return of Will Fuller. Unfortunately for Will, he has already found himself on the injury report with multiple injuries heading into week 4. His status needs to be monitored. Fuller is only worth a speculative bench stash in deeper leagues as the 3rd receiving option on this team. 

Minnesota Vikings

Player Target Share Snap Share
Adam Thielen 24% (wk2 21.9% – wk1 20.4%) 96% (wk2 100% – wk1 94%)
Justin Jefferson 29% (wk2 31.3% – wk1 18.4%) 83% (wk2 86.9% – wk1 91.6%)
K.J. Osborn 5% (wk2 18.8% – wk1 18.4%) 59% (wk2 59% – wk1 80.7%)
Dalvin Cook OUT (wk2 9.4% – wk1 14.3%) OUT (wk2 77% – wk1 71.1%)
Tyler Conklin 21% (wk2 12.5% – wk1 8.2%) 72% (wk2 80.3% – wk1 71.1%)

Quick Hit: Both, JJ and Thielen continue their top 10 fantasy campaigns. Osborn came back down to earth, with Tyler Conklin popping off in week3. The decline in Osborns snaps, leading up to week3, was a warning. His SS stayed the same from week 2 to 3, and he’s only viable bench stash in deeper leagues. Conklin is still a risky TE play, but there is not much out there at the position. He’s worth a spot for TE needy teams. 

New England Patriots

Player Target Share Snap Share
Jakobi Meyers 27% (wk2 20% – wk1 23.1%) 96% (wk2 89.7% – wk1 98.7%)
Nelson Agholor 16% (wk2 10% – wk1 18%) 81% (wk2 86.2% – wk1 85.3%)
James White 2% (wk2 20% – wk1 17.9%) 8% (wk2 50% – wk1 37.3%)
Jonnu Smith 12% (wk2 16.7% – wk1 12.8%) 42% (wk2 50% – wk1 73.3%)
Hunter Henry 12% (wk2 13.3% – wk1 7.7%)  72% (wk2 81% – wk1 72%)
Kendrick Bourne 16% (wk2 10% – wk1 8%) 76% (wk2 54% – wk1 44%)

Quick Hit: TB vs NE carries the 5th highest projected point total in week 4. Expect the Patriots to be playing from behind against the, overly-hyped, return of Brady to Foxborough. Meyers maintains his elite fantasy usage in both TS and SS, view him as a back end WR2 this week. I can’t imagine the Patriots bailing on Agholor this early in the season after shelling out  cash to bring him here, but his efficiency is atrocious. His snaps are the only thing keeping him on the fantasy radar. Bourne again…Kendrick has consistently increased his snaps and targets. KB should be rostered in the majority of formats as Mac Jones continues to build report with the 26 yr old wideout. I rather roster Bourne over Agholor at this point. Henry and Smith continue to limit each others upside. Henry logged a healthy snap count for a third straight week, but this seems to be more of a correlation to his usage as a blocking TE. Neither can be trusted in starting lineups. JJ Taylor is the running back to watch for with James White done for the season with a hip injury. 

New Orleans Saints

Player Target Share Snap Share
Adam Trautman 5% (wk2 0% -wk1 28.6%) 82% (wk2 52.2% – wk1 82.3%)
Alvin Kamara 19% (wk2 27.3% – wk1 19%) 84% (wk2 84.1% – wk1 72.6%)
Juwan Johnson 5% (wk2 13.6% – wk1 14.3%) 13% (wk2 40.9% – wk1 19.4%)
Marquez Callaway 24% (wk2 18.2% – wk1 9.5%) 61% (wk2 72.7% – wk1 96.8%)
Deonte Harris 14% (wk2 9% – wk1 10%) 31% (wk2 48% – wk1 44%)
Kenny Stills 14% 47%

Quick Hit: Marquez Callaway remains the only NO WR worth rostering at this point. His day was saved by a Jameis Winston prayer to the back of the end zone that Callaway was able to impressively haul in for a tuddie. Tony Jones Jr creeped into double-digit TS (10%), after recording 0 targets in week 2. His value remains solely as a premium handcuff for Kamara managers. Trautman nor Johnson are worth rostering in redraft leagues, both are merely dynasty stashes as this point. We need to see how Kenny Stills role develops before we do anything with him. Harris was the biggest loser from Stills’ activation in week 3.

New York Giants

Player Target Share Snap Share
Sterling Shepard 9%(wk2 31.3% – wk1 24.3%) 34%(wk2 92.8% – wk1 95.1%)
Darius Slayton %(wk2 18.8% – wk1 18.9%) 13%(wk2 56.5% – wk1 70.5%)
Kenny Golladay 14%(wk2 25% – wk1 16.2%) 69%(wk2 84.1% – wk1 85.2%)
Saquon Barkley 20% (wk2 9% – wk1 8%) 86% (wk2 84% – wk1 48%)
Collin Johnson 20% 49%
Evan Engram 17% 56%
Kadarius Toney 9% (wk2 0% – wk1 5%) 66% (wk2 28% – wk1 8%)

Quick Hit: Shepard and Slayton exited Sunday’s game, against Atlanta, with hamstring injuries. Both were unable to return to the game. The dreaded hammy injury. You know my thoughts on hamstring injuries, if you’ve been following me over the years here @Razzball. They like to linger, man…they’re linger-ers (in my best James Franco voice). We will need to monitor the severity of these injuries. The tea leaves point to at least one, if not both, wideouts missing this week. This was a get right game for Saquon Barkley, we can expect better days to continue for the former fantasy all-star, as he gets back to full form. This week the G-Men have a tough matchup against New Orleans, and it will be hard to trust any pass catcher in our lineups given the ambiguity of who’s going to be starting/at full health. It was nice to see Engram back on the field and receiving his fair share of looks from Danny Dimes. We need to see his snaps increase before we can trust him in our lineups. Kenny Golladay struggled to stay on the field last week as he managed through his hip injury. I snagged Kadarius Toney in a number of leagues where I was lacking WR depth. He recorded the 2nd most WR snaps last week and the Giants invested a first round pick on him, look for Toney to get more involved. Collin Johnson is a speculative stash in deeper formats, if Shepard or Slayton are to miss an extended period of time.

 New York Jets

Player Target Share Snap Share
Corey Davis 29% (wk2 15.2% – wk1 18.9%) 94% (wk2 72.6% – wk1 89.2%)
Braxton Berrios 9% (wk2 33.3% – wk1 18.9%) 78% (wk2 58.9% – wk1 56.9%)
Elijah Moore 17% (wk2 24.2% – wk1 10.8%) 48% (wk2 78.1% – wk1 86.2%)

Quick Hits: I warned against starting Davis, in the last two Target Reports, with tough matchups for the Jets rookie QB. Davis still maintained his #1 usage, reaching elite TS in week 3 against DEN and recording 94% SS. Expect the former first rounder, Davis, to bounce back this week against a TEN defense that has allowed the 3rd most fantasy points to WRs this season. Below average QB play caps his ceiling, but Davis can be viewed as a WR3/Flex play this weekend. After leading the team in targets two weeks in a row, Berrios was an after thought last weekend even though he was 2nd on the team in snaps. The Jets continue to try and get rookie Elijah Moore going. Unfortunately, for him, he left the game after suffering a concussion. Monitor his availability as the week progresses, but with Jamison Crowder nearing return it’s hard to see the value in rostering any NYJ pass catcher outside of Corey Davis in redraft formats. Ty Johnson popped on the map with 14% TS after recording 0 targets in week 2. He is basically splitting snaps with Michael Carter, and neither warrant a bench spot in 12-man or smaller leagues, at this time.

Philadelphia Eagles

Player Target Share Snap Share
DeVonta Smith 15% (wk2 30.4% – wk1 22.9%) 98% (wk2 84.5% – wk1 87.3%)
Jalen Reagor 21% (wk2 21.7% – wk1 17.1%) 86% (wk2 72.4% – wk1 70.4%)
Dallas Goedert 10% (wk2 8.7% – wk1 4.3%) 59% (wk2 65.5% – wk1 73.2%)
Miles Sanders 10% (wk2 8.7% – wk1 14.3%) 60% (wk2 67.2% – wk1 66.2%)
Zach Ertz 18% (wk2 8% – wk1 6%) 52% (wk2 66% – wk1 59%)
Kenneth Gainwell 10% (wk2 13% – wk1 9%) 31% (wk2 34% -wk1 36%)

Quick Hit: After a heartbreaking let down from the Eagles on MNF, I will ask you to trust the process. Focus on the usage and not the final fantasy stat line. Again, don’t bail on DeVonta Smith following his single digit fantasy outing. He simply does not leave the field, I will be keeping him in my lineups this week. Now that the Eagles D has been exposed, expect the Eagles to be in negative game scripts frequently. The Birds have a brutal slate of upcoming matchups (vs KC wk4 – vs TB wk6 – @ LV wk7). Chiefs vs Eagles has the 2nd highest projected point total in week 4. Reagor’s snaps continue to increase and has held a healthy TS every week this season. He should be rostered in most leagues, and should be viewed as a low end WR3/Flex play with their matchup against KC. It was hard to stomach watching Goedert break off a 38 yard reception and get open on a number of plays to only receive 4 targets the entire game. Ertz’ re-emergence will continue to cap Goedert’s ceiling. This backfield is hard to trust with Hurts choosing to bail with his legs vs dumping off to his RB. A favorable matchup on paper against a bottom of the league rush-D, Rudy Gamble projects Sanders to finish as a top 20 back in PPR formats this week.

Pittsburgh Steelers

Player Target Share Snap Share
Diontae Johnson OUT (wk2 30% – wk1 31.3%) OUT (wk2 87.5% – wk175.9%)
JuJu Smith-Schuster 7% (wk2 17.5% – wk1 25%) 40% (wk2 96.4% – wk1 91.4%)
Chase Claypool 26% (wk2 22.5% – wk1 15.6%) 92% (wk2 76.8% – wk1 67.2%)
Najee Harris 33% (wk2 12.5% – wk1 9.3%)  95% (wk2 94.6% – wk1 100%)

Quick Hit: It’s the Claypool and Harris show in Pittsburgh with Diontae and Smith-Schuster banged up with injuries. DJ is questionable, at best, to suit up in week 4. JuJu avoided a serious rib injury and is managing through bruised ribs. I would imagine he suits up this week, but would be worried about his snaps. TE Pat Freiermuth found pay-dirt in week 3, but dipped below double-digit TS in week 3 (9% TS).  Following a huge dip in SS  (wk3 36% – wk2 59%), Pats usage would need to increase drastically before I trust him in any lineup. He’s a touchdown dependent dart throw at the TE position. James Washington saw the biggest increase in snaps, with Diontae out (wk3 80% – wk2 21%), but recorded a measly 9% TS. Don’t waste your time here unless you are in an extremely large format. 

Seattle Seahawks

Player Target Share Snap Share
DK Metcalf 28.1% (wk2 35.5% – wk1 21.7%) 89% (wk2 94.4% – wk1 92.6%)
Tyler Lockett 12.5% (wk2 35.5% – wk1 21.7%) 92% (wk2 92.6% – wk1 85.2%)
Chris Carson 6.3% (wk2 0% – wk1 13%) 43% (wk2 63% – wk1 77.8%)
Freddy Swain 6.3% (wk2 16.1% – wk1 4.3%) 85% (wk2 75.9% – wk1 42.6%) 
Gerald Everett 15.6% (wk2 6% – wk1 9%) 79% (wk2 80% – wk1 72%)

Quick Hit: Metcalf and Lockett rarely leave the field in SEA. Neither should leave your starting lineup on any given week, even following Lockett’s drop in production and TS. Following an injury scare and single digit fantasy production, maybe you can steal him from a worried league-mate. Everett finished tied for TE13 in week 3. We need him to sustain his usage in order trust him in our lineups on a weekly basis, but the snaps and 15.6% TS in week 3 are promising. Swain’s TS dipped below double digits, but he only trailed Lockett by 4 snaps and Metcalf 2 in week 3. He would be atop every waiver list if either DK or Tyler were to miss any time. He’s worth a bench stash in deeper formats. 

San Francisco 49ers

Player Target Share Snap Share
Deebo Samuel 25% (wk2 26.7% – wk1 46.2%) 90% (wk2 70% – wk1 83.6%)
George Kittle 23% (wk2 13.3% – wk1 19.2%) 100% (wk2 100% – wk1 94.5%)
Brandon Aiyuk 15% (wk2 7% – wk1 0%) 86% (wk2 54% – wk1 47%)
Kyle Juszczyk 10% (wk2 10% – wk1 4%) 69% (wk2 59% – wk1 36%)
Mohamed Sanu 15% (wk2 3% – wk1 4%) 64% (wk2 29% – wk1 36%) 

Quick Hit: Deebo Samuel and George Kittle maintain their elite fantasy usage and remain as set-it and forget it players. Brandon Aiyuk’s usage continues to trend up for a third straight week. I would like to see another week of similar usage before I fully trust him in lineups, but he hit in week 3. Expect Aiyuk to continue being a fantasy asset in this offense. Put a couple of trade offers out there for him, before his value increases even more if he performs for a second straight week. Elijah Mitchell should return to this lineup sooner than later, see if a league-mate dropped him. Sermon did very little to take control of this backfield given the opportunity with SF decimated at the RB position. A TD saved Sermon from finishing with an abysmal 5 PPR points. Juszczyk dominated the passing down work out of the backfield, reaching double-digit TS for a 2nd week in a row. SEA @ SF has the 4th highest projected point total in week 4. If Mitchell were to miss another week, I could see a situation where Juszczyk could be put in PPR fantasy lineups. Leave Sanu on waivers as the 4th-5th passing option on this team. 

Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Player Target Share Snap Share
Chris Godwin 12.7% (wk2 13.9% – wk1 28%) 96% (wk2 88.9% – wk1 98.5%)
Rob Gronkowski 12.7% (wk2 13.9% – wk1 16%) 62% (wk2 81% – wk1 87.7%)
Antonio Brown  OUT (wk2 8.3% – wk1 14%) OUT (wk2 44.4% – wk1 64.6%)
Leonard Fournette 5.5% (wk2 11.1% – wk1 14%) 36% (wk2 49.2% – wk1 64.6%)
Mike Evans 18.2% (wk2 25% – wk1 12%) 84% (wk2 73% – wk1 93.8%)
Giovani Bernard 18.2% (wk2 6% – wk1 6%) 45% (wk2 10% – wk1 26%)

Quick Hit:  I see a lot of questions on twitter regarding which TB WR to start each week. The answer is to never sit any of the top three TB pass catchers (Evans, Godwin, Gronkowski). I warned after week 1 that Brown’s weekly production will be a yo-yo given his inconsistent snap share. He’s worthy of being on a bench, and a spot start if you are in a pinch. AB shouldn’t be viewed more than a high-risk high-reward WR3/Flex play, unless his SS increases drastically and we see more consistent TS trends. It’s clear Brady found his “James White” in Tampa with Giovani Bernard. Gio led all Tampa backs in snaps in week 3 while Brady played catchup against the LA Rams. Fournette’s passing usage declined for a third straight week. The question is, what to do with Jones? He is a drop candidate depending on your league and roster needs, but I still think he is worth a bench stash. There is upside with Jones on a highly coveted offense, if Fournette or Bernard were to miss any extended period of time. Don’t forget, RoJo is only 1 season removed from a top 20 fantasy finish (PPR). Cameron Brate is the next man up if Gronk were to be sidelined with an injury. Brate stepped right in, following a brief exit from Gronkowski, and almost reach double digit TS (9.1%). X-Rays came back negative for Gronk and he should be ready to go for his prime time matchup against his former team. 

Tennesse Titans

Player Target Share Snap Share
A.J. Brown 7.5% (wk2 22.5% – wk1 22.9%) 11.8% (wk2 84.1% – wk1 81.2%)
Julio Jones 14.8% (wk2 20% – wk1 17.1%) 50% (wk2 75% – wk1 78.1%)
Chester Rogers 7.4% (wk2 12.5% – wk1 17.1%) 41.2% (wk2 43.2% – wk1 60.9%)
Derrick Henry 11.1% (wk2 15% – wk1 11.4%) 72.1% (wk2 76.1% – wk1 62.5%)
Nick Westbrook-Ikhine 14.8% (wk2 3% – wk1 6%) 77.9% (wk2 18.2% – wk1 37.5%)

Quick Hit: We need to monitor the A.J. Brown situation, but Nick Westbrook-Ikhine benefited the most in week 3 from Brown’s absence. Westbrook led all TEN pass catchers in snaps and tied Julio Jones for team leader in targets. He’s worth a stash if you have the bench space. After double digit TS week 1 & 2, I would have guessed Chester Rogers was the next man up. His TS and SS numbers dipped in week 3. Either way, don’t blow all of your FAAB or waiver priority on either TEN pass catcher, Tannehill was bottom of the league in pass attempts in week 3 (26th). For a third straight week, a different Titan TE led in TS. Geoff Swaim popped on the map with 15% TS in week 3. Don’t waste your time with this position group, unless we start to see a consistent trend in usage or at least actual fantasy production. 

Washington Football Team 

Player Target Share Snap Share
Terry McLaurin 29.2%(wk2 30.4% – wk1 19%) 96.3%(wk2 100% – wk1 100%)
Dyami Brown 8.3%(wk2 13% – wk1 19%) 64.8%(wk2 87.3% – wk1 92.7%)
Logan Thomas 16.7%(wk2 15% – wk1 14.3%) 100%(wk2 100% – wk1 100%)
Adam Humphries 16.7% (wk2 17.4% – wk1 9.5%) 63% (wk2 70.4% – wk1 60%)
JD McKissic 8.3% (wk2 13% – wk1 4.8%) 46.3% (wk2 43.7% – wk1 36.4%)

Quick Hit: At least the elite usage remains for Terry McLaurin, but Heinicke struggled to keep up with Josh Allen through the air – completing less than 50% of his passes. Look for a bounce back from Mclaurin, next week, when the Football Team travels down to the A. Gibson and McKissic were tied with 2 targets  (8.3% TS). It was Gibson’s one catch for a 73 yard tuddie that saved his day. We’ll see if Gibson earns more passing work after everyone was reminded of his dynamic playmaking ability. Both backs didn’t get much going on the ground while the Football Team was playing catchup from the opening quarter. Gibson did lead McKissic in snaps for a 3rd straight week (wk3 SS 57.4%), but McKissic held on to his hurry up/3rd down role. Dyami Brown’s target share declined for a third straight week, not worth a roster spot in 12 man redraft leagues. Humphries hit over 15% TS for a second straight week, but his low yards per target (1.8) and snap rate don’t warrant a roster spot. Logan Thomas is TE7 on the year, which isn’t saying much given the current state of the TE position in fantasy, keep him in your lineups.