Fantasy Football Advice

Kevin Walter did not live up to his sleeper status for 2009 so it’s time to appoint a new sleeper king of the Houston Texans’ wide receivers.  And thankfully he has a much more alliterative name; Jacoby Jones or J.J. Walker Texan Receiver.  Jones had 40 targets last season and he hauled in 27 of them for 437 yards and 6 touchdowns.  That’s a pretty nice yards per catch there.  If my math is correct he averaged 16.2 yards per catch and a touchdown every 4.5 receptions.  He was the Texans’ deep threat so those aren’t exactly crazy numbers, but his effectiveness is noteworthy.

Kevin Walter looks like he’ll be let go the way of free agency and it’s not exactly a leap to see why the Texans would let him walk.  After a 899 yard/8TD season in ‘08 he looked poised to expand on or at the very least, repeat those numbers.  Instead, he finished with 2 touchdowns and 611 yards, while his yards per catch dropped from 15 to 11.4.

J.J. has been fairly inconsistent, but Coach Kubiak believes he has the skills to be a #1 receiver.  So, if Walter leaves and Jones wins the the #2 slot how much work can he expect to get?  Let’s say that Owen Daniels returns 100% from his injury.  Last season he was on pace for 80 receptions, 1000 yards and 10 TD’s.  Andre Johnson of course is the stud of all studs and I’m projecting 100/1450/10 for him. Those two will be the main targets for Matt Schaub, but with the Texans throwing a lot there should be plenty of opportunities for Jones. If you’re up for it (and you better be!) let’s break down the Texans’ 2009 wide receiver receptions.

225 receptions for wide receivers: AJ 101, Walter 53, Anderson 38, Jones 27, Davis 6

With Walter gone, Jones would easily see those 50 receptions as the #2 receiver, but I also see that number inching closer to 60-65 and Jones’ athleticism should keep his yards per catch closer to 15 than Walter’s paltry 10 from last season which would push him into the 900+ range and even if he stays at his 6 TD’s he would be in the top 20-25 range.  Now that you’ve read one of the longer sentences ever conceived you should keep a close eye on the sitch in Houston.  If the stars line up the way I think they will, Walter will hit the bricks and J.J. will win the #2 position sooner than later and you can start jonesin for Jones.

Kenny Britt - watching Britt play this past weekend was like the first time I ever ate cookie dough; I wasn’t too keen on the idea at first but before I knew it I was two Pillsbury tubes deep with a face full of salmonella.  Now I don’t want to eat Kenny Britt, but I do want him on my roster and you should too.  The former Rutgers playmaker is a must add if he is still on the waiver wire.  Though he has not been in the mix for very long, I put him at WR 3/flex value easily and there is no one hotter than Vince Young and the Titans.  Britt led Titan receivers with 11 targets against the Cardinals and had a monstrous seven catch 128 yard day.  Oh yeah and he caught the game winning touchdown in traffic on the last play of the game…clutch.  It was Britt’s second straight week with a touchdown and even if Gage comes back I would expect to see Britt remain a starter as Nate Washington doesn’t really tickle my no-no zone.  Also, Britt is a great keeper stash for those of you in keeper leagues.  Last week I said that I might put a waiver claim on him and now I’m crying on my heart shaped pillow because I let him get away.

Derrick Mason - I certainly don’t expect Mason to be available in your league but if you own him you have to start him.  He has almost singlehandedly accounted for all of the Ravens WR targets over the past three weeks, amassing 33 total targets which is good for 7^th in the NFL.  Defenses are having a hard time keeping a lid on this Mason jar, as he made good on seven of his 13 targets on Monday night, accumulating 62 receiving yards and hauling in a touchdown.  Monday night was just an extension of his magnanimous game in week 11, during which he caught nine passes for 142 yards against Indy.

Jason Avant - with the injury to Desean Jackon (concussion) Avant is one of the top waiver pick ups this week.  Avant, who has been putting up decent numbers over the past three weeks, had a huge game on Sunday against the Redskins, catching five of his six targets for 94 yards.  Even before Jackson’s injury, Avant has earned some fantasy consideration as he caught a touchdown last week and had a breakout game week 10, during which he caught eight passes for 156 yards.  Avant’s six targets were second to Maclin’s seven and if you are an owner who needs a win this week I would definitely put a claim on Avant as Philly is sure to pass against the weak Atlanta defense.

Michael Jenkins - Jenkins is a guy I actually drafted in round 14, expecting him to be a nice, productive compliment to Roddy White.  However, for the better part of the season he has been a disappointment, yet lately he has been seeing an increase in targets and production.  Jenkins was second to White on Sunday with eight targets and he managed to grab seven catches for 80 yards.  Fortunately for prospective owners Jenkins was also productive in week 11 as he snagged six balls for 76 yards, and over the past three weeks, Jenkins is in the top 20 off all receivers in the NFL with 27 total targets.  Though I think Avant is a safer pickup, Jenkins may be a guy you can pick up off of free agency who can help you get a solid 8-15 points this week against the Eagles.  The way Redman played last week, I wouldn’t be dissuaded to play White or Jenkins.  White, by the way, is tied for 2^nd overall in total targets over the past three weeks with 37, though he has not been very dominant statistically.

Laverneus Coles - Coles is a guy who has begun to emerge as the Bengals’ #1 target getter as he has had 21 over the last three games, four ahead of Ochocinco.  Though I am high on Coles and I think the Bengals will be more productive with Benson back in the line up this week, Coles hasn’t done very much with his increased targets.  On Sunday he managed only two receptions on nine targets for a measly 24 yards.  Week 11 he didn’t fair much better as he only managed to grab two passes for 61 yards.  However, Coles has shown some promise and he obviously has chemistry with Palmer which is enough to warrant a flex play against the Lions this weekend.

Jacoby Jones - I am still high on Jones even though he has been limited with a calf injury and is not very appealing in terms of a target standpoint (4 for 3^rd on the team last week).  However, Jones appears healthy and with Owen Daniels out the Texans have run an increased number of three and four receiver sets which certainly works in Jones’ favor.  With Johnson getting doubled with a safety over the top and Walter acting as the poor man’s Welker, Jones is primed for a big play and a breakout game.  Though Jones is far from a “safe” pick, those of you looking to build some depth for the playoffs may want to take a chance on him as he is now healthy and he can put up some big numbers.  Last week Jones had three catches for 27 yards and a touchdown and you’ve got to like the matchup against the Jaguars this weekend.

Chris Chambers - though I have lauded Long’s consistency in the past, Chambers has seen somewhat of a rebirth after signing with the Chefs and deserves some recognition as he may be able to help you out in the future.  Chambers is coming off of his second big game in a row as he was targeted eight times including two in the red zone.  Chambers managed to make good on seven of those targets for 70 yards and a touchdown last Sunday and he had four catches for 119 yards in week 11.  Though it is tough to invest in the KC offense, Chambers has received the majority of red zone targets and Cassel is nothing if not serviceable.  KC sees a tough matchup against Denver this week but you bet your sweet @#$ they are going to throw that ball and Chambers could put up big numbers yet again.

Sam Aiken - I wouldn’t rush out to the mediocre 3^rd rate store to buy him unless you are“Aiken” for a risky sleeper.  Ha!  Anyway, Aiken deserves a shout out for getting 10 targets against the Saints on Monday night during which he caught seven passes for 90 yards.  Aiken has some value with Edelman dinged up in that you know the Pats are going to pass the ball and the third receiver on the Pats is often like a first or second receiver on a weaker team (see Massaquoi).  I certainly wouldn’t expect a whole lot of consistency from Aiken but maybe you can find a flex spot for him if you are in a 25 team league.

Update: 8/25

Many of us play in leagues where kick and punt return yards count for fake points that could translate into real money or a false sense of happiness.  But how much stake do you put into return ability?  Last year many jacked Devin Hester’s value up thinking that since he was becoming a bigger part of the offense, coupled with the insane return numbers he had the year before, he would be a monster in return yardage leagues.  Well, as you know Hester’s production fell mightily with the additional wide receiver duties he had to hold in.  I know how that feels, umph.  So there is a balance between offensive production and return production.  There are very few #1 RB’s or WR’s who also produce top 10 return numbers.  Only three of the top 10 kick returners were also offensive threats, but still not starters: Darren Sproles, Jerious Norwood and Leon Washington.  Four of the top 10 punt returners were threats: Johnnie Lee Higgins, DeSean Jackson, Leon Washington, and Reggie Bush.

A lot of kick and punt returners value comes from your league’s set up.  If you get points for return yards and there is a starter out there who also returns kicks or punts then his value goes up, but say you have a 3rd down back or a 3rd or 4th receiver that also returns, then you have to do a little more calculating. Does a 3rd WR who returns kicks have the same value as a #2 WR who doesn’t?  Does he have potentially more value?  In deep leagues this is much easier.  You get those players who are most versatile in your scoring system.  Or say you are in a salary cap league like TSN’s Salary Cap Football and you need a player who has upside, but isn’t too expensive, you grab these guys up. Always know your scoring system in and out.  People don’t like to read the details so when you do you can take advantage.

It is impossible to know for 100 percent certainty who will fill the PR/KR roles at this point in the preseason, but here are some duel threats worth looking at:

1. Darren Sproles: It looked like Sproles could really cut into LT’s production after last season, but it now looks like he’ll stay a return man and a change of pace back.  Of course you have to try to get him if you draft LT, but in return yardage leagues he is worth much more than just a handcuff.

2. Josh Cribbs: This versatile player will see more work as a WR this year, but will continue to return punts and kicks.  And you could also see him behind center in the Wildcat or the Tame Dog or something.

3. Leon Washington: He will continue to get kick return duties while also getting more touches in what looks like a rbbc.  Sanchez will need to check down quite a bit and I see Washington getting checked down a lot.

4. Reggie Bush: With him already getting tweaked and yinked and crinked in training camp he is of course a huge injury risk, but if you are going to risk a pick on him, a return yardage league is where to do it.

5. Percy Harvin: If he fields kicks and punts, is a wide receiver, and walks on water he could be Purple Shiva.

6. Steve Breaston: He gets a lot of looks from the Power Chair, but since he’s a third WR he still gets return work.  And a Breaston the hand is better than two in the bush.  Wait, is that right?

7. Johnnie Lee Higgins: The three-named player also has three tools, but thankfully only takes one out at a time and never in front of children. He will continue to get work in the return game where he is elite and also should be more involved in the passing game especially with Chaz Schilens breaking his foot.  Yes, he plays for the Raiders, but NFL games last a long time and some yards have to be gained by the Raiders this year, at least a couple.

8. Felix Jones: Jones is already going as a flex option in many drafts so his return yardage bumps him up a few notches.   He can do things with just a few touches on offense, but when he doesn’t he’ll still grab you a few positive points from the return game.

9. Jerious Norwood: He will continue to get 3rd down work and kick returns.  Plus he will see more touches this year to keep Turner from running out of nickname fuel.

10. Davone Bess: How much his starting status effects his return status is yet to be seen, but I believe he’ll continue to some degree.  I continue to find positive fantasy tid-bits from this guy.  Grab him before Davone Fever catches!

11. Ahmad Bradshaw: The Pepper in the Grind and Pepper duo.  Or the Spit in the Chew and Spit.  Or Dash in the Dine and Dash, anyway, he’s the quick little scrappy fella and Jacobs is the monster who will break your face.  Bradshaw should get kick returns.

12. Lance Moore: Any starting WR for the Saints who also returns punts is worthy of some consideration. I really don’t see Meachem doing anything to hurt his value so this is another added bonus.

13. Devin Hester: Hester’s adp has dropped like a turd in a punch bowl in the last few months after the Cutler shine wore off him.  He still will return punts and there really was good reason for the hype.  He has a year as a WR under his belt and a MUCH better QB throwing to him.  As long as Jay Cut doesn’t throw him under the bus again he’s worth a hard look in return yardage leagues.

14. Patrick Crayton: He will receive punt return duties because Felix Jones couldn’t do it.  Crayton has pretty much won the #2 WR position across from Roy Williams and will get plenty of looks this year.  Bump him up like he’s Women’s Softball on ESPN when Favre unretireretires.

15. Wes Welker: He returns punts, but isn’t spectacular at it.  It gives him a minuscule boost. But if you are in a ppr league and a return yardage league, that is what we call Dubya Dubya double dip!

16. Santana Moss: He is head-noddingly yawnstipating, but he does gain a little value here.  When he gets 0 to 1 receptions he at least will get half a point on punt returns.

17. Roscoe Parrish: Roscoe, he sounds like an old hound who likes to spend all day sleeping on the porch dreaming of chasing rabbits and . . . wait, no this Roscoe plays for the Bills and is one the best return men in the league, but that’s about all your going to get from him unless a receiver gets injured in front of him and he turns away and lets a truck run over him.

18. Jacoby Jones: A great return man, but doesn’t get much time on the field otherwise. Similar to Roscoe, but with a completely different name.

19. DeSean Jackson: DJax will have to take on a much bigger role this season if the Eagles want to win so I believe he won’t see as much work in the return game. Maclin is getting the preseason work as the return man, but doesn’t look ready for a big role as a WR just yet.  Keep an eye on DJax this preseason if his return yardage is the deciding factor for you.

EDIT: Keep an eye on these guys during the preseason.  If they get full time return positions they are very much worth consideration in return yardage leagues: Eddie Royal, Robert Meachem, Deon Butler, Mike Wallace, Shaun McDonald,  Andre Davis, Ted Ginn Jr, Jamaal Charles, and Jeremy Maclin