Fantasy Football Advice

With the news of Thomas Jones being put out to pasture every Shonn Greene keeper/dynasty leaguer got a tingly feeling in their nether regions.  Jones was going to cost too much for a 32 year old player even though he put up great back to back seasons for the Jets.  He has shown that 32 is the new 27, but with the kind of money he was going to make it just didn’t make sense for the Jets to keep him when Shonn Greene proved in the playoffs that he could handle the load.

Thomas Jones has been one of the healthier backs for the last few years and I don’t see him needing to get on Monster.com to find a job.  There are plenty of teams in need of a veteran back.  San Diego just let L.T. go and they didn’t tender an offer to Sproles.  Philadelphia let Westbrook go and I just don’t see McCoy getting more than 15 touches a game.  Detroit needs another back with Maurice Morris not an every down back.  Shannahan says Portis is his guy, but Washington has to know that there is a very slim chance he’ll last the season. New England is always in the market for aging running backs.  Houston is looking for running backs even though they might be going the draft route.  The Seahawks have Forsett, but we don’t really know their commitment to him yet.  Whatever team he ends up with will help us decide where to project his numbers. The Jets offensive line is elite, so it will be tough for him to come anywhere close to last season’s numbers, but in the right circumstance he could once again defy his age and his ADP.

With Jones gone, Shonn Greene becomes an instant fantasy stud.  I’ve seen many people calling him a second round back, but I’m much more inclined to throw him into the end of the first round.  His back to back big games in the playoffs showed that he can be the man and in a big way. He has speed and power to spare.  Jones had over 1400 yards and 14 touchdowns behind the Jets line.  If Greene had the same number of opportunities, I believe his numbers would have exceeded Jones’.  I am being a little conservative with his projected numbers since he hasn’t proven he can hold up for a whole season, but I’m also of the mind that players who have put up numbers for whole seasons have also been hit over and over for whole seasons, which makes their bodies not as whole.  Just like real GM’s, fantasy GM’s need to get to these backs early.  Say you grab Greene instead of Manning/Rodgers/Brees?  Yes, you know those guys are going to give you numbers whereas Greene is riskier, but I much rather grab Greene and then Rivers/Schaub/Romo than Brees and someone like Matt Forte.

Is Greene that much better than most of the running backs out there? No, he’s not.  Or at least he hasn’t proven it yet.  But his situation is better than most running backs.  Leon Washington is the only real threat to steal carries and he is obviously the third down/scat back at this point.  Greene will be the sole goal line back.  Rex Ryan wants his defense and his offense to keep the other team’s offense off the field.  I’m trying to say he likes running the ball.  And there is no reason to believe the Jets’ defense is going to collapse, so they won’t be playing catch up and as Sanchez improves it will take some of the heat off the running game, even though they did pretty well even when defenses knew Sanchez wasn’t going to pass.  As fantasy footballers we couldn’t have really designed a better scenario for a running back.  So when your league mates are grabbing the old reliable Ryan Grants of the world, grab Shonn Greene, and then point and laugh and make baudy comments regarding their mothers.

So instead of hearing about Favre every day until the Super Bowl we get to see grainy color film of the Manning boys playing catch in the backyard and hear tales of Drew Brees in his motor boat picking people off roofs.  I’m mainly happy that I don’t have to hear Rex Ryan blathering on about how his team should be favored.  Maybe he was saying flavored instead of favored?  Is that why he has put on an extra 150 pounds?  Are there any back up Jets’ kickers missing?

I’ll save you all the suspense; I’m going with The Mannings in this bout of white bread vs. Creole.  Besides the fact that I think Peyton is the ultimate X factor, I refuse to root for any team with Jeremy Shockey on it to win the Super Bowl. As commenter Danimal35 said, no team that lost to the Buccaneers in the regular season has ever won the Super Bowl.  I think that record will continue in Miami in two weeks.  Two weeks!? Ugh.

Peyton Manning: I would like to thank Manning for not making me look too stupid in front of my throngs of readers.  Hi mom! My prediction that passing is the new fad to take over the NFL was correct!  And also thanks to Bradbury Robinson and his “projectile pass,” which sounds more like vomit than football, but whatevs.  Even though the AFC Championship wasn’t a last second affair like the NFC game, it was a better all around game without the fumbleruski play being implemented on each drive.  Peyton once again showed why he is the best QB in the game by steering away from Revis Island and docking most his passes on Collie Reef and in Garcon Bay.  Next week he gets the turnover happy, but not very cover happy pass defense.

Joseph Addai: He came out of the game again this week, but managed to get back in there and out rush the rushing elite Jets.  With 2 weeks rest he will be ready to go in the Super Bowl against the poor Saints’ rush defense.

Pierre Garcon: He had 11 receptions, 151 yards and a touchdown and I could chalk it all up to Revis taking out Wayne, but Garcon didn’t look like he was just a beneficiary of a lot of targets and poor defensive backs; he made some amazing catches.  I like Anthony Gonzalez, but he may have just been Wally Pipped.

Austin Collie: Collie also came up big, but didn’t look quite as athletic after the catch as Garcon.  He ended up with a great 123 yards and a touchdown grab, but should see his role decreased a little as long as Darrelle Revis doesn’t make the trip to Miami.

Reggie Bush: He caught a pass for a touchdown, but otherwise he once again showed why he is pretty much worthless in the sense of things that are worth something, which he isn’t.  He muffed a punt, or bushed it, if you will. And by muffed or bushed, I mean that he bailed out so he wouldn’t get hit.

Pierre Thomas: He totaled 99 yards and a rushing touchdown and looks like he’ll continue to be the go to guy in the Super Bowl after Reggie Bush had no luck running the ball.  He was the second Pierre to have a good game on Championship Sunday.  What happened to all the Merican football players?!!

Drew Brees: He has 6 touchdowns and no interceptions in the playoffs so far.  It was difficult to tell if he was playing or not since all I can remember is Brett limping around, but looking back at the stats it looks like he was.  He didn’t out grit Ol’ Favre, but he was steady.  He gets a Colts pass defense that wasn’t really tested by Flacco and Sanchez actually looked good against them.  Look for around 1,000 total yards passing in Miami.

Devery Henderson: The DH has come up big in the playoffs so far.  Picking what receivers will get the yards and touchdowns for the Saints is a crapola shoot at best, but if you like riding the hot hand, and who doesn’t?, then get DH in your lineup.  I think the DH is allowed to play in a neutral stadium.

Brett Favre: He really did get beat like a 40 year old pinata, but made some amazing throws in the process.  His last throw was a pick, but I still can’t understand why Childress was running the ball and settling for a 51 yard field goal?  Then, after having too many men in the huddle, the Vikings were pretty much out of field goal range and Favre had to make a play, so he forced it like is his want to do, and got pickaruskied.  It wasn’t like they were on the five yard line and needed a chip shot to win it.  Whatever happens with Favre he proved that he can still play at an elite level, which just doesn’t happen with 40 year oldies.

Adrian Peterson: He had some great runs and three touchdowns and some really bad ball control, no not the Paris Hilton kind (sorry mom), but the fumbling kind.  He needs to figure some shizz out and quick.  He hasn’t lost his speed or moves or power, but he doesn’t look like he knows what the eighch he’s doing out there.  He just plows ahead with reckless abandon and coughs up the ball (see Paris Hilton) more than he should.  He had an amazing game statistically and there is no reason to think he will slow down fantasy wise.  So why should we care?!

Sidney Rice: He caught a touchdown, but saw a lot of double coverage, so Favre looked elsewhere.  Rice has the skills to be an elite #1 receiver in this league, but TJax isn’t the guy to help him remain an elitist.

Bernard Berrian: 102 yards receiving was his highest number for the season.  His age, injury proneness, competition, and possible loss of Favre make him free agency fodder in a lot of leagues next season.

Mark Sanchez: I was impressed by the Bearded-Sanchez.  When he needed to make throws he made them.  Ryan should have actually turned him loose in the early downs more often instead of plodding ahead with the ineffective running game, but what do I know? (don’t answer that).  Sanchez will continue to improve, but his fantasy value should still have a low ceiling (think Gandalf in Bag End) next year.  If they can keep Greene, Jones and Washington they should continue to run it down opponents’ throats.

Shonn Greene: He injured his ribs and only ended up with 10 carries for 48 yards, but he had already shown his ability in the games before this.  He is going to be super-hyped, especially if Thomas Jones is let go due to salary and oldness.  If that happens, I’ll probably be conducting the super-hype train.

Braylon Edwards: He ended up with 100 yards and a long touchdown which he amazingly caught.  Edwards must be a head case or maybe he just can’t catch, but he has the ability to get open and make amazing catches when the ball doesn’t hit him directly in the hands. I’ll always be wary of drafting him.

Jerricho Cotchery: Sanchez hooked up with Cotchery 5 times for 102 yards.  The Cotch Rocket is a steady receiver and should continue to be as Sanchez blossoms.  Looking back at what I just wrote I could be writing a review of a new ABC Family show. If they make a pregnancy pact I am going to freak out!

The 2009-2010 NFL playoffs has featured plenty of pass-happy teams. The good news is that 3 of the 4 remaining teams have an abundance of fantasy-relevant QB’s, WR’s, and TE’s. The bad news is that one of this weekend’s two matchups offers a much better situation than the other.

Sunday 3:00 EST

New York Jets @ Indianapolis

As you may have guessed, the AFC matchup is the weaker of the two games in terms of pass offense. This is due entirely to the Jets’ presence on both sides of the ball. As we’ve cautioned all season, the Colts’ offense is a must-play even against the toughest defenses, but the fact remains, this is not a good matchup if you need huge numbers out of Indy.

The Jets offense has regressed in fantasy as it has progressed in real life. As Mark Sanchez was reined in further and further each week, his mistakes went down, but the opportunity for offensive production went down with it. It’s a fine recipe for winning games with (or in spite of) a rookie QB, but it doesn’t produce yardage or touchdowns. If you’re looking for a silver lining here, it’s that Sanchez may be forced to throw more often if the Colts take an early lead. That said, if Sanchez throws more often, you’re faced with the original problem, which is the likelihood of multiple turnovers. It’s still difficult to recommend anyone on this offense. Cotchery’s no sure thing to break 50 yards, and Keller is the weakest of the 4 remaining TE’s.

NYJ: Sanchez 0, Cotchery -1, Edwards -1, Keller -1

The interesting twist for the Indy offense is whether Darrelle Revis will primarily cover Reggie Wayne (as he was used to cover #1 receivers most of the season), or if he will be moved around the field depending on the defensive package (as he did last week against the Chargers). There are arguments to be made on both sides. The Jets used Revis to shut down #1 WR’s all year, so it could be argued that last week was an aberration, something designed specifically for the Chargers’ offense. On the other hand, it could be argued that the Colts in some ways resemble the Chargers — they have a clear #1 WR, but they also feature a dominant receiving TE, and at least 2 reasonable talented complementary WR’s. For now, my judgment is that Dallas Clark is a safer option than Wayne, if only because of the possibilities: Revis could cover (and severely limit) Reggie Wayne all game, but it’s unlikely that the Jets defense will be able to shut down Dallas Clark. With Revis switching coverage last week, Vincent Jackson and Antonio Gates were neck and neck in catches and yardage. That’s not to say Wayne is a terrible option, but if one of the two is going be limited, I’d bet it’s Wayne and not Clark.

IND: Manning -1, Wayne -1, Clark 0, Garcon -1, Collie -1

Sunday 6:40 EST

Minnesota @ New Orleans

Now this is a game you can feel good about. Both pass offenses are clicking, producing yardage and (especially) touchdowns. Neither pass defense is particularly stout — even if it looks like they “shut down” the opposing offenses last week, other factors (Romo’s inability to complete throws downfield under pressure, Warner’s injury and its effect on his accuracy and arm strength) played a role in the suppressed totals.

Sidney Rice is clearly the highlight of the Vikings receiving corps, and he continues to physically dominate opposing corners. On 2 of his long catches last week, Rice didn’t even have much separation from the corner, but Favre put it within reach and Rice outpositioned the covering defender. The Saints secondary is a “bend don’t break” kind of unit, and while Darren Sharper has received plenty of (deserved) credit for his interceptions, he doesn’t cover pass routes particularly well and will give up yardage when he gambles. Harvin and Shiancoe were disappointments last week as they each caught just 1 pass (and while Shiancoe’s was a touchdown, it happened after the game was already in hand). Harvin worries me more than Shiancoe — we know that the TE is a favorite of Favre’s from 25-30 yards in, and that won’t change.

MIN: Favre +1, Rice +1, Shiancoe +1, Berrian, Harvin

I’m just ever so slightly more concerned about the Saints offense in this game. The Vikings’ front 7 consistently tore through the Cowboy’s pass protection. I trust Brees to make smart decisions with the ball, but if he gets hurried, the Saints may not have time to set up their downfield shots. Still, it’s a minor quibble. The bigger issue in terms of fantasy is why Meachem disappeared last week. Meachem did break free and was targeted downfield once, but Brees overthrew him. The Saints also “lost” a possession from Reggie Bush’s punt return TD, so that’s at least one drive in which Meachem could have been targeted a few more times. Still, we have to now consider Meachem a co- #2 WR (along with Devery Henderson, who had a gorgeous 44-yard TD on a flea-flicker) after Colston. Meachem had an amazing run of TD’s during the season, but that doesn’t help you this week, especially since he may have hurt his ankle during last week’s game. Now that I’ve written those words publicly, Meachem will probably leapfrog Henderson in production again, but that’s the nature of the Saints offense. I don’t think Shockey will match Witten’s numbers (10-98) from last week, but he may grab a few more yards than usual.

NO: Brees 0, Colston 0, Meachem -1, Henderson +1, Shockey +1

Another weekend of playoff games, another blowout fest until the very last game, but even that game wasn’t really in doubt toward the end.  Hopefully next week we’ll get a little more excitement with Favre in the bayou and Manning navigating around Revis Island.  Here are my thoughts and postulations and consternations on the divisional games.  Read at your own risk:

Brett Favre: No matter what you think of him he will always be remembered for his “pants on the ground” locker room celebration, which should automatically disqualify him from Canton.  Favre threw for four TD’s and 234 yards while humiliating the Cowboys and gets to play in another dome on Sunday which he seems to like.

Sidney Rice: He’s just getting stronger in the big games and will continue to be Favre’s favorite receiver.  He tallied 141 yards and 3 touchdowns and is slowly rising on draft boards.  Much of his value is tied to Favre so if you want him on your team next season you’ll have to put up with Favreageddon this offseason.

Tony Romo: The Vikings absolutely demolished the Cowboy’s offensive line and pillaged Tony Romo’s manhood.  For as often as he was running from Flash Dance Headbanded Mullet Man it’s amazing he didn’t throw more than one interception.  There is no reason to think he won’t be a top fantasy QB again next season.

Felix Jones: Watching him run in comparison to Marion Barber was a bit like watching a remake of the Tortoise and the Hare, but in this version the hare’s wife is being held hostage by terrorists and he must beat the tortoise or his wife gets it.  Barber has beaten his body to death with the way he runs and looks like he’s lost a step.  Jones has given us some hope that he can stay healthy while getting 15 carries a game.  I am not going to feel good about taking either, but Jones will get his opportunity next season.

Jason Witten: With no time to pass Tony Romo had to get it off quickly to Witten so his 10 receptions for 98 yards isn’t too surprising. He started off slow this season, but finished strong.  He’s not as athletic and fast as Gates, Davis, Finley, etc, but he’ll continue to be productive in the Cowboy’s dynamic offense.  Thankfully you’ll be able to get him later in the draft next season.

Mark Sanchez: He’s doing his best Trent Dilfer impersonation, but I’m still sticking to my prediction that the passing game will prevail and that Peyton Manning will pick them apart, but as Sanchez develops he’ll have a great running game and defense to compliment his skills.

Shonn Greene: He ran for 128 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries and has seemingly taken over as the lead back and is making a strong case for starting camp as the #1 running back next season. It’s going to be hard not to push Greene on you next season, but there is a good chance Tom Jones will be back and Leon Washington should be ready to go as well.  It will be extremely hard to get Greene in a position of any value.

Philip Rivers: It felt a little like the Bolts took the Jets too lightly.  I could be wrong, but Rivers had only thrown 9 interceptions all year and threw 2 killer INT’s in this all important game.  Nate Kaeding didn’t help the situation, but Rivers just didn’t look sharp or ready for how well the Jets played.

Vincent Jackson: The Jets tried to confuse the Bolts by not shadowing VJax with Revis, and even though VJax finished the game with 111 yards they kept San Diego off balance. He was a great value pick this year, but will probably go higher and be drafted about where he should be next season.

LaDainian Tomlinson: Even though he was a TD machine once again this season he has lost more than a step.  Sproles clearly outplayed him against the Jets.  He will have to take a big pay cut to be the goal line back next year or he’ll be released.

Reggie Bush: In the rushing matchups article I wrote, “Reggie Bush will either have 10 touches and 3 touchdowns or 5 touches and a big fat Kardashian butt zero.” Nice riding of the fence Doc! Yeah, well, that’s what I do.  He ended up being much closer to the first prediction than the second with 2 TDs and around 200 total yards.  Hopefully this will keep people drafting him somewhat early so you can take someone who will get more than 5-10 touches a game and can stay healthy.

Drew Brees: He accumulated 247 yards and 3 touchdowns on his way to yet another great game.  You can’t say enough good things about Brees so I won’t try. He gets the Vikings suspect pass defense next week and his O-line should be more stable than Dallas’.  In the last 8 games the Saints have allowed 1.1 sacks per game which is second in the league.

Marques Colston: He looked like the elite receiver he should have been all year.  He’s just too tall and athletic and as long as he’s getting the opportunities I think he’ll have a good playoff run.

Jeremy Shockey: The grease from his hair was shipped in special from The Jersey Shore, but his doucheness was all his own.  He caught a TD while limping around, which I have to believe was done to bang more drunk chicks.

Kurt Warner: I guess Kurt didn’t pray hard enough or God just loves New Orleans more.  Wait, what was the whole hurricane thing about?  Whatever the reason, the Saints just destroyed the Cardinals.  Warner had to leave the game before halftime after getting blindsided and then he left the game again because his team had also been blindsided.  Will Warner retire? I think it’s probably 50/50 right now, but Cardinal’s fans better hope Leinart isn’t their QB next season.

Larry Fitzgerald: Tony Siragusa made an extremely astute observation when he said the Cardinals need to throw it to Larry Fitzgerald more. After they were getting killed they finally started throwing to him and he ended up with decent stats, but it was way too little too late.  Fitz is still an elite receiver and will go early in drafts, but keep an eye on that QB sitch.

Beanie Wells: He scored a TD, but that was about it. Beanie will be the main back going into next year, at least by a small margin, but he still isn’t trusted to block.  If he can get that squared away and take over on the goal line he could be a top RB next season, but don’t bank on it yet.  Hightower is trusted and that goes a long way.

Peyton Manning: Not since Australopithecus began to walk upright have we seen such evolution in the passing game. Or maybe it’s just that the NFL doesn’t let defenders touch receivers or quarterbacks, but whatever the reason, Peyton Manning can take over a game unlike any player in the NFL  I’m having maybe a bit too much love for Peyton’s skills, but he seems to have taken his game to another level.  The Ravens played extremely well on defense, but Manning took what he was given and didn’t try forcing the ball and it never really looked to be in doubt.  He gets to actually play the Jets this weekend and I bet you can guess who I think will win.

Reggie Wayne: He’s an elite receiver and showed it by catching 8 balls for 63 yards and a touchdown against a tough Ravens defense.  Now, as long as he doesn’t go bustin’ caps in random asses he could someday be the most beloved Indy receiver of all time.

Donald Brown: He split time with Mike Hart while backing up Joseph Addai, but on a couple runs showed some burst and moves that Hart just doesn’t have.  Expectations were fairly high for him this season, but hopefully his poor year will drop him into a manageable draft slot where he could have some value next season.

Joe Flacco: He was completely out played by the Colts, but I still think he has the ability to be a very good QB in this here league.  His injuries, lack of explosive wide receivers, and the emergence of Ray Rice made this season a running game centric one, and if they give him some help at receiver Flacco could easily balance out that offense.

Ray Rice: The Colts contained him, but “containing” him equals 127 total yards. I’ve said it before, but if McGahee is let go, Ray Rice will probably be my #3 overall pick ahead of MJD.  Unlike Matt Forte, Ray Rice can make his own holes and break long runs.  Forte and Slaton have left me a little gun shy of young running backs coming off big years, but Rice will not disappoint.

I amazingly predicted yesterday’s games correctly so there is a good chance I will go o-fer today.  But I’ll give the old MFA in Poetry from a small art school try! I’ll take a look at all four of the playoff games on Monday, so for now get your game face on (not your O face please) and get ready for some hot NFL on FOX and CBS action!

Dallas @ Minnesota 1:00 ET

Fox Announcers: Joe Buck and Troy Aikman

There is a good chance that one of the QB’s in this game will look like a little kid out there, be a gunslinger, or heal blind children with his incredible pocket presence, but only one can move on to the NFC Championship game.  Will it be the Viking Song or Tony Romo?  Amazingly there are other players in this game and they also will have some bearing on the outcome.  The teams matchup well, both have good quarterbacks, a good running game, the ability to pressure the quarterback, a good run defense, and a somewhat suspect pass defense.

It’s hard to discount the roll that the Cowboys have been on so I won’t try too hard.  Yes, the Eagles aren’t as good as they appeared to be, but the Cowboys made extremely short work of them and looked great on the road in New Orleans who just dismantled the Cardinals.  That’s my round-a-bout way of saying the Cowboys are for real, but are the Vikings?  They slumped hard toward the end of the season and righted the ship against the towel throwing in Giants.  So both teams have a winning taste in their mouth and should come into the game with confidence.  But which team will end the game with confidence? I don’t know! Answer your damn question already!

Ok, ok, I’m taking the Cowboys.  Favre has avoided making poor decisions this season, but DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer are good and should force him to make throws he doesn’t want to.  And I no longer doubt Tony Romo.  I probably should, but the guy has made good decisions this year, and even in the games that count.  Yes, Jared Allen was supermulletman early in the season, but with help he can be stopped, run at him and double him, and don’t let him play the Packers in which he tallied 7.5 of his 14.5 sacks. Adrian Peterson has had trouble breaking 100 yards rushing this year and can’t seem to take over games and I believe that is more the o-line’s fault than his.  The same o-line that will need to protect Favre.  The Boys have the offense to beat any team, but I believe it’s their defense that wins this one for them.

NY Jets @ San Diego 4:40 ET

CBS Announcers: Jim Nantz and Phil Simms

I’d like to have some crazy shamanistic insight into how and why Vincent Jackson will be able to escape from Revis Island, but I don’t.  It probably won’t happen, and if it does there will be plenty of casualties.  The good thing for the Chargers is that VJax isn’t their only offensive weapon.  Gates, Floyd, Sproles, LT, and Naanee can all catch the ball.  Does this mean the Jets will get blown out by the Chargers unstoppable offense? No. The Jets pass defense is good, but just as you saw a good Ravens defense get picked apart by Peyton Manning, Philip Rivers can do the same to the Jets.

The Chargers averaged 26 points a game whereas the Jets gave up a measly 12.  Something has to give and I think it will be the Jets D.  Why are you so confident? Good question, but stop bothering me! I believe the Chargers will force Mark Sanchez to throw the ball, and not those out routes and little roll out misdirection high school routes, some real honest to Betsy passes that he has to decide, ok, who do I throw this thing to? And if what we’re hearing about Shawne Merriman and his health is true, then we could see Sanchez scrambling for a hot dog.

As I’ve said over and over again, I believe the run and D way of winning championships is over.  Yes, you need some semblance of a defense to win a game, but the Colts’ defense isn’t why they won yesterday.  Yes, it was good, but it went against a team where the engine (as Ray Lewis likes to call the QB) wasn’t up to code.  Is this game The Jets’ defense vs. Philip Rivers? No, it’s Rivers vs. Sanchez. That’s the way the NFL wants it. They want their marquee names to have the most impact on the game so they’ve made it nearly impossible to beat their heads in.  The Chargers should win at home.