Hey there Razzballers,

Reid here writing a quick little piece for those in keeper leagues and trying to make decisions for who you plan on using a keeper status on in some of your leagues. While there are an infinite number of hypothetical situations, I will provide one that I believe best illustrates the thought process you’ll need to go in with (Also, it’s my actual scenario and I’ve already made up my mind). So let’s get right into this.

 

Scene: The Smug Dolphins are coming off a tough outing from last season. Marcus Mariota did NOT live up to the hype and Jordy Nelson absolutely burned them in the end of the first round last season. The draft is coming up in this 12-man league and the Smug Dolphins are picking 8th.

The Options: Keenan Allen (4th round), Derrick Henry (6th round), Alex Collins (14th round).

Initial Thought Process: So this is the decision that the Smug Dolphins must decide between. If we did this decision before free agency started, Henry would have serious consideration for this choice. But that’s not how life, nor fantasy football work, as the Titans signed Dion Lewis to tank the value of Henry (who is on my Hate list this season). So now it comes down to Allen and Collins. Let’s take a look at the argument for each.

Argument for Allen: Keenan Allen has Phillip Rivers throwing him the ball in a pass-happy offense. The other aerial weapons for the Chargers are not proven commodities. There is no Hunter Henry this season to siphon targets away from Allen. Looking solely from an ADP perspective. Allen is going as WR6 overall and is going in the middle of the 2nd round. Allen is a WR1 on most fantasy football rosters and is my personal WR1 overall this season in full PPR formats. While I would, in theory, only be getting 2 rounds of value by using my keeper on Allen, he has a chance to be a real gamebreaker for my roster.

Argument for Collins: Alex Collins ran hard last season and was one of the best waiver wire pickups of the 2017 Fantasy Football season. This year, he has quite a different ADP and perception among fantasy owners. Collins has a current ADP of RB18 overall and is being drafted at the tail end of the 3rd round (roughly 33rd overall in 12-team formats). Because he was a waiver wire pickup for the Smug Dolphins, he will be considered a 14th round pick. That’s roughly 11 rounds worth of value by using a keeper on Collins. The upside of Collins this year is a high-end RB2 on the roster. The offense in Baltimore ‘should’ be better, especially the passing game. Collins does not own all of the carries in this offense however. Both Buck Allen and Kenneth Dixon split the carries with Collins and will bring the ceiling on Collins down a little bit.

Climax: Probably not the best way to label this section, but whatever, let’s just do this shit. I ended up choosing Keenan Allen in the 4th round as my keeper.

Thought Process: Allen having the upside of WR1 overall is too much to pass up. This year in fantasy football possesses a great amount of value in the middle rounds of the draft, especially at the WR position. For RB’s, it is a little more top-heavy, and thus giving me the ability to obtain an elite fantasy WR for a 4th round pick. What this also does is allow me to load up on the RB’s with two of my first three picks, giving me a dominant top of the draft.

Moral of the Story: When making decisions like this, don’t take just the basic value of “rounds saved” as your only factor. Take into account the upside of the player and how it allows you to manipulate the rest of your draft.

 

Thanks for reading everyone. Please comment below if you have any keeper decisions you need help with.

  1. Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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    got a dynasty draft (2 QB half PPR 12 teamer) starting tomorrow, and i’m way behind (do plan to and will read/listen to all razzball info since SB here shortly), where is a good dynasty rankings list around here currently (or somewhere else if not here)? thanks. if no exact list yet exists here (odd if it didn’t though, this is about to be draft season) i could list roster. i’m aware that in 2 QB dynasties QB’s obv go up in value over a standard list, sometimes by a lot. my team in general is RB needy though so my 1st rounder this year will likely be a RB, also i have good QB depth (somewhat, they aren’t all starters), weak RB depth, esp if this burkhead injury is a large thing; a week or so ago it sure LOOKED like i had gained big value owning him still. it’s only a 3 round draft and i have all my picks in the first 34 (10th in each round).

  2. dirtyd says:
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    Non PPR League, Picking at 5 Spot. Which 2 do you keep?

    Kareem Hunt 2nd
    Tyreek Hill 11th
    Josh Gordon 14th
    Alex Collins 14th
    Kenyan Drake 13th
    JuJu 13th
    Marquise Goodwin 13th

    • Reid

      Reid says:
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      @dirtyd: Hey dirtyd. Thanks for reading!

      You have a lot of good options here. That being said, I think it’s pretty obvious that you should be going Tyreek Hill and Marquise Goodwin. Both have top-10 WR upside this year and it frees you up to load up on all of the RB’s in the early rounds.

  3. Big league choo says:
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    12 team ppr no flex

    Luck/Ingram for Stafford/Chris Hogan

    Qb Luck, Mariota
    Rbs Bell,Zeke, Ingram, Burkhead
    WRs Diggs, Jordy, Marquise Lee, Parker, Godwin, Anthony Miller, Lockett

    • Reid

      Reid says:
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      @Big league choo: Give me Stafford and Hogan in that trade.

  4. kwoox says:
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    question

    Full PPR

    mike williams chargers 12th round
    marvin jones 9th
    Ertz 5th
    randall cobb 6th

    my initial is ertz but marvin is awesome value……12 team league. 5 is EARLY for a te normally for me. I would be cool with a kyle rudolph later. I’m not sold on marvin being what he was last yr.
    you start 2 WR 2 RB and a flex. So 2nd wr to me is eh? thoughts

    • Reid

      Reid says:
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      @kwoox: So just by process of elimination, we can remove Cobb and Williams from this list. I actually don’t hate the idea of Ertz because this year TE is going to have very little depth worth bragging about. So go ahead with Ertz personally.

  5. Daniel Keehn says:
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    I like the new post! I agree would have kept Allen in that situation as well. In my first year of PPR keeper league – my keepers are Ertz – 6th round & Kamara – 11th.

    I have done really well trading away players for picks and own 9 picks in first 5 rounds. I specifically have two firsts (9th and 10th), a second, two thirds, two fourths and two fifths. What would your strategy & thoughts be for the first round and overall? Thanks!

  6. Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo says:
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    yeah more than one thing you gotta evaluate in these kinds of things:
    1. overall value of player (and do you NEED that or not, i.e. gurley too good to pass up even as a 1st rounder, since if he’s close to last year’s overall value you just take it, or maybe you know there are 4 guys at same value you can get with say a 3rd round pick, then why keep a guy you could keep with that 3rd round pick), this might be also called “replacement level of player”. gurley wouldn’t have a replacement level, the 3rd round guy would.
    2. best value PER pick slot (here collins would have that), this could also be called “relative value”.

    • Reid

      Reid says:
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      @Joey Jo Jo Jr Shabadoo: Good points on both. I think I touched on the 2nd point a little bit in my argument for keeping Collins. I decided however that getting a WR1 and potentially top WR in all of fantasy football in the 4th round was more important that getting a quality RB2 in the 14th. It’s a bit of a balancing test to determine what to do here. Weighing multiple factors.

  7. Paul Zone says:
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    10 team keeper, standard no ppr. May add 0.5 ppr in 2019 but not this year. What 2 rbs would you keep? I pick 10th so cant count on the 2 I don’t keep being there.

    McCoy
    McCaffrey
    Henry
    Collins

    Thanks.

    • Reid

      Reid says:
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      @Paul Zone: McCoy and McCaffrey. You can count of Henry and Collins both being there in round 2 and 3 for you. McCoy still is a bell cow and McCaffrey is going to explode this year.

  8. Eli Man Penguin Boy says:
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    here’s one for ya, 14 team h2h PPR keep 2. i already have AB (round 4, have gotten 1, 1,3 in the 3 years after i joined this league exactly as AB was becoming completely elite) and get to pick one from this list. rosters are
    1 QB
    2 RB
    3 WR
    1 TE
    1 R/W/T flex
    1 K
    2 LB
    2 DB
    1 DL
    6 BN
    2 IR
    choices, 1 out of these:
    fitz (3, pick 40)
    ebron (11, pick 152)
    parker (21st, pick 292)
    goodwin (21st, pick 292)
    fuller (17th, 236)
    RW3 (SEA QB, 5th, pick 68)

    • Reid

      Reid says:
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      @Eli Man Penguin Boy: As long as that’s Marquise Goodwin, you better lock that in ASAP. Not even close IMO

      • Eli Man Penguin Boy says:
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        @Reid: wasn’t sure if it was that much better than the parker (parker was my 2nd last year keeper in last round). forgot to mention (although it was implied in the AB in the 4th round) that there’s no inflation on these. so if goodwin (last year seemed it could show this) has that much higher upside than parker sounds good, thanks.

  9. Ian says:
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    Super work Reid as always! Out of this dynasty team :
    Garoppolo, Winston, Kamara, Jordan Howard, Derrick Henry, Barber, Mack, Michael Thomas, Amari Cooper, Cobb,
    Corey Davis, Trent Taylor, O J Howard, Jacksonville Def, I get to keep 10 and drop 4.
    Which 4 would you eliminate please ?
    Thanx!

    • Reid

      Reid says:
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      @Ian:

      Trent Taylor, Barber, Henry, Winston.

      I like the upside of Mack a little bit here. I also don’t think you need to use a keeper on Jameis when you can just draft another QB as your backup later on in the draft.

  10. Nick says:
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    Hey Reid,

    keeper team to draft in 2 days

    keepers league – 8teams :
    RB1 Gurley
    RB2 HUNT
    RB3 Kamara
    WR1 A.Brown
    WR2 Dv.Adams

    so ,, NO bad choice here ^^

    who should i focus on at the draft ? i won last year, so i pick 8 th at the snake
    Best QB avb ? to complete my starting team
    Cam / R.Wilson / DS Watson (was in my team)
    or wait round pick 23/24th for some Luck/Cousins/Wentz ? but knowing they may be gone

    then pick 9 ? WR/TE ?
    risk on Engram soon or wait for Rudoplh/Njoku/Burton
    or secure my WR : Diggs/TYHilton/Baldwin/ C.Davis/ or wait for Hogan/R.Anderson/Kupp …

    thanks Nick

    • Reid

      Reid says:
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      @Nick: Hey Nick. Thanks for reading!

      I would go somewhere along this line of thinking:

      I need a WR, a TE, and a QB. I could also get insurance for myself if one of my RB’s ends up getting hurt, or even a WR.

      I would go RB and WR or maybe even double WR to start your draft. I think Rudolph should be available later on in the draft for you (especially since it’s only 8 teams). Especially if you can get Diggs and a Mixon/McCaffrey at 8/9

      • Nick says:
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        @Reid:
        For for the answer
        Mc Caffrey is already gone
        Diggs should be taken before me ,,,
        and 4teams + Me are without QB (Brady/Brees/Rodgers taken)

        i may be able to land Mixon at best RB (maybe McKinnon if questionable week1?)
        along with Baldwin at WR and that would be a formidable combo at that rank
        or reach a bit for upside? Allex Collins? Chris Hogan?

        is Wentz the QB steal of the draft at that ADP ? if i can get him round 8?

  11. Steve Stevenson says:
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    10-tm dynasty, std scoring, I have the 9th pick in rookie/FA draft. I’ve historically done well in this league by prioritizing RB depth (w/ 3 solid starting options every week) despite being pretty weak at WR, but this year the WR situation is getting rough.

    My question is, where should I be focusing for my 1st round pick–RB or WR? It’s not a snake so my 2nd pick won’t be until #19. My top 3 RB right now are Hunt, Howard and Ajayi, so I’m OK there. My top 3 WR (only starting 2 every week w/ a RB in flex) are JuJu, Goodwin and Woods, so talented but a lot of things need to break right.

    There are about 8-9 RB available that are worth rostering in this league, but closer to 15 WR. By the 9th pick I may have a Chubb or Wilkins available, and by 19 all the decent RB should be gone. Whereas at WR, there’s a mix of vets w/ upside (Cobb, Hogan, Edelman, Shepard) and all the rookies, so at 9 I may have, say, DJ Moore, Cobb and Shepard to choose from, and at 19 maybe a Lockett, Meredith or John Brown.

    So, barring someone making bad picks and gifting me a no-brainer, do you go RB or WR at 9?

  12. Tony says:
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    Hi,

    Thank you either way, but if you have time, please advise whether I should keep Allen Robinson or Jamaal Williams as my last keeper? I’m retaining Collins and Mixon at RB and Evans, JuJu and Josh Gordon at WR; D Watson at QB. Can JW remain as starter and can ARob return to form, then need to hope that JG can cope with the pressure, but he is back so this is encouraging.

    Thanks again and good luck with your season!

  13. bananafactory says:
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    PPR, need help deciding my keepers, can only keep 2 at their round costs:

    Kamara – 11th
    Melvin Gordon – 4th
    Michael Thomas – 8th
    Lamar Miller – 2nd
    Evan Engram – 13th

  14. CA says:
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    Great article and solid choice, Reid!

    I feel you on juggling options. Here’s my dillema

    1/2 PPR, 2 keepers at previous round cost:

    Cousins – 10th Round
    Goff – 10th
    Kenyan Drake – 10th
    Ingram – 6th
    Fournette – 3rd

    Leaning toward Drake (long term keeper, he’d only cost me Rd 9 next year) and Fournette.

    Thoughts??

  15. dt says:
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    hey Reid!

    I got a keeper question for you. 12 team ppr with 2 flex spots. I’ve got the 9th pick in a snake draft. I can either keep Hopkins in the 2nd round (16th pick), or keep one of Juju, Dion Lewis, Chris Hogan, Jamison Crowder in the the 16th round (last round of our draft).

    I was leaning towards Juju as my keeper, but as the offseason progresses I’ve been tempted to keep Hopkins and hopefully get a stud RB with my 1st pick (though Gurley, OBJ, Zeke, Kamara, and Thomas will most likely be kept). Also, the Lewis hype is getting crazy and was wondering if maybe that would be an alternative option.

    What are your thoughts?

  16. southside dom says:
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    Need to pick a keeper. 10 team standard scoring league, start 3 WRs, 2 RBs, and a flex

    Which one do you like of the following?

    Mixon in the 4th
    Thielen in the 9th
    Ertz in the 10th

    Thanks

  17. In a 12-team PPR we can keep Kamara for a 12th rounder or Ertz for a 4th rounder. My partner favors Ertz due to Kamara’s likely regression. Even so Kamara seems a no brainer but can’t convince him. Am I off base?

    • MB

      MB says:
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      No, even with regression, Kamara in the 12th is a steal

  18. Christopher Yuschak says:
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    Keep Luck and lose 12th round pick, or keep Keenan Allen and lose 3rd round pick? Luck has a ton of value in the 12th round, but Allen is “a sure thing”, and still allows me to take a top RB and/or WR in rounds 1 and 2. Or I could go crazy and keep Funchess and lose my 15th round pick, but that’s a wild card…

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