Hey there Razzballers,
Reid here writing a quick little piece for those in keeper leagues and trying to make decisions for who you plan on using a keeper status on in some of your leagues. While there are an infinite number of hypothetical situations, I will provide one that I believe best illustrates the thought process you’ll need to go in with (Also, it’s my actual scenario and I’ve already made up my mind). So let’s get right into this.
Scene: The Smug Dolphins are coming off a tough outing from last season. Marcus Mariota did NOT live up to the hype and Jordy Nelson absolutely burned them in the end of the first round last season. The draft is coming up in this 12-man league and the Smug Dolphins are picking 8th.
Initial Thought Process: So this is the decision that the Smug Dolphins must decide between. If we did this decision before free agency started, Henry would have serious consideration for this choice. But that’s not how life, nor fantasy football work, as the Titans signed Dion Lewis to tank the value of Henry (who is on my Hate list this season). So now it comes down to Allen and Collins. Let’s take a look at the argument for each.
Argument for Allen: Keenan Allen has Phillip Rivers throwing him the ball in a pass-happy offense. The other aerial weapons for the Chargers are not proven commodities. There is no Hunter Henry this season to siphon targets away from Allen. Looking solely from an ADP perspective. Allen is going as WR6 overall and is going in the middle of the 2nd round. Allen is a WR1 on most fantasy football rosters and is my personal WR1 overall this season in full PPR formats. While I would, in theory, only be getting 2 rounds of value by using my keeper on Allen, he has a chance to be a real gamebreaker for my roster.
Argument for Collins: Alex Collins ran hard last season and was one of the best waiver wire pickups of the 2017 Fantasy Football season. This year, he has quite a different ADP and perception among fantasy owners. Collins has a current ADP of RB18 overall and is being drafted at the tail end of the 3rd round (roughly 33rd overall in 12-team formats). Because he was a waiver wire pickup for the Smug Dolphins, he will be considered a 14th round pick. That’s roughly 11 rounds worth of value by using a keeper on Collins. The upside of Collins this year is a high-end RB2 on the roster. The offense in Baltimore ‘should’ be better, especially the passing game. Collins does not own all of the carries in this offense however. Both Buck Allen and Kenneth Dixon split the carries with Collins and will bring the ceiling on Collins down a little bit.
Climax: Probably not the best way to label this section, but whatever, let’s just do this shit. I ended up choosing Keenan Allen in the 4th round as my keeper.
Thought Process: Allen having the upside of WR1 overall is too much to pass up. This year in fantasy football possesses a great amount of value in the middle rounds of the draft, especially at the WR position. For RB’s, it is a little more top-heavy, and thus giving me the ability to obtain an elite fantasy WR for a 4th round pick. What this also does is allow me to load up on the RB’s with two of my first three picks, giving me a dominant top of the draft.
Moral of the Story: When making decisions like this, don’t take just the basic value of “rounds saved” as your only factor. Take into account the upside of the player and how it allows you to manipulate the rest of your draft.
Thanks for reading everyone. Please comment below if you have any keeper decisions you need help with.