Fantasy Football Advice

Free Agency has begun!  A lot of rumors were shot into the world yesterday, but not too many of them stuck.  I’ll take you through some of the juicier rumors and the stickier innuendo:

Jake Delhomme: He has been released by the Panthers due to suckiness, but also for money concerns which are boring.  Now that he’s on his way out I feel some regret for constantly mocking him, but he just wigged out and lost all his ability to distinguish his receivers from the other team’s cornerbacks.  With his experience there is no doubt he’ll find a team to give him shelter, but it would be amazing if he were to turn his career around at this point.

Matt Moore: Delhomme’s departure has left the quarterback position for Moore.  This is pretty good news for Steve Smith since Delhomme was having trouble getting him the ball.  Moore isn’t going to be a fantasy starter in the Panther’s run first offense, but he could move his way up into backup status.

Nate Burleson: Burleson has signed with the Detroit Lions.  This is very good news for our man Calvin Johnson.  If Burleson can stay healthy (a Rex Ryan sized if) he will take a lot of heat off Megatron and give Stafford three good targets in Pettigrew, Burls and Megatron.

Chad Pennington: It was looking good for Pennington to head back into the crowded Dolphin’s quarterback club, but he wants a no trade clause that the Dolphins don’t want to give him.  Chad Henne has the starting QB job, and they also like Tyler Thigpen and Pat White.  Pennington doesn’t feel like a necessity.

Chester Taylor: He is visiting Halas Hall today (that’s where the Bears hold their frozen rituals). This visit is very bad news for Forte owners. It doesn’t have to be 3rd down for running backs to catch passes in Mike Martz’s system, but since Forte’s value looks like it will be as a receiver next season, a back like Taylor who can catch the ball will really cut into his numbers.

Julius Peppers: The Bears were busy last night, especially Lovie Smith who showed up on Peppers doorstep at midnight and asked if he could sleep over.  I think they played Madden.  Peppers and Smith will form a singing duo and headline a show in Vegas over the summer.  With Peppers going to Chicago for a visit it’s looking like he’ll probably end up there.  Bears management is looking to save their jobs.

Brandon Marshall: Most of the news coming out about Marshall is that teams don’t want to mess with him.  He has the stink of petulance, a murder trial, and greed, all over him.  The rumor mill has the Seahawks as a suitor right now.  Pete Carroll could really use him now that Burleson is a Lion.

Thomas Jones: No concrete rumors have been circulating.  Can rumors be concrete? Adam Schefter believes the Browns will look hard at Jones which makes a lot of sense.  The Browns don’t believe Jerome Harrison can be an every down back (that must be why they gave him 100 carries in the last three games!).  It’s too early to get into Jones’ impact with the Browns since I have no clue who he’ll be playing for next season.

Darren Sproles: After deciding not to tender the scraptastic back slash kick returner, the Chargers took a gander at their depth chart and saw it peppered with scrubtastic backs, so they rethought and gave Sproles a 1st and 3rd round tender.  But there are rumors that they are willing to trade him for less than his tender.  I’m guessing because they don’t want to pay him 7 million dollars.

Kevin Walter: For some reason he is getting a lot of buzz.  He had a great chance to make some noise in the Texans pass heavy offense last season, especially after TE Owen Daniels went down, but instead he did a whole lot of jack squat.  The Ravens seem to be interested.  Sounds like a recipe for bluh.

Antonio Cromartie: The Jets traded a third rounder for Cromartie.  The guy is a little soft (take a look at his fake attempt at tackling Shonn Greene in the playoffs), but he does have cover skills.  Him and Revis will make the Jets defense even better.  They have to be the first D/ST off the board in drafts next season.

Derrick Mason: I couldn’t see the Ravens letting him go, but there have been rumors flying around that have him going to New England or Miami.  These could be rumors to help Mason get 2 years out of the Ravens.

Anquan Boldin: See above, but add the Ravens.

Aaron Kampman: The Bears were looking hard at Kampman, but harder at Peppers.  It’s now looking like the Seahawks are the front runners in the Kampman race.  His injury may make his signing a little further off, but he’ll help a team.

Tampa Bay is not one player away from a championship by any means, but there is some reason for optimism.  And that optimism is pretty much squarely on the shoulders of Josh Freeman.  He showed flashes of quarterbacking goodness, but also a whole lot of ball control problems, which thankfully can be corrected.  He will be limited in his development due to a dearth of wide receivers after Antonio Bryant hits the bricks.  So they do need wide receivers, but they also need help in about every aspect of the game, especially on the defensive line.

The two defensive lineman that looked like they would go before the Bucs could get a sniff of them, Ndamukong Suh and Gerald McCoy, seem like they are more of a possibility now that Sam Bradford is getting a ton of #1 pick buzz.  Many mock drafters are looking at Tennessee safety Eric Berry as the logical pick for Tampa, but if McCoy or Suh fall, they will grab either without batting an eye. Of course it looks like McCoy would be the one to fall since Suh has a slight edge over him in most scouts minds.

But what if all this Bradford talk is just that, talk?  For one, there is a chance that Bradford won’t be up to snuff medically, which would almost certainly drop him from #1 contention.  For two, Suh is considered the best player in the draft and Spagnola is a defensive minded coach.  Adam Schefter could be wrong about the Rams wanting Bradford (say it ain’t so!).  So, is Berry the pick if Suh and McCoy go #1 and #2?, gross.  I don’t see why not.  Berry fits the Tampa 2 well with his big play ability.  It is very hard to believe that someone with his skills would be a bust.  Not too many safeties have gone in the top 5, but all of them have ended up pro bowlers.  The Bucs need help in the secondary; not as much as they do on the D-line, but enough to make the Berry pick completely reasonable.  Berry and Talib could be a force together, and quickly.

An upgrade in defense could keep Freeman from playing catch up constantly, but for all intents and purposes, the first round choice of the Bucs won’t make a big impact fantasy wise in 2010.  The Bucs need a wide receiver and for any of their running backs to stay healthy and I don’t see either happening soon.  They will draft a receiver later in the draft, but whoever that is won’t matter much this season.  With an improved D, I can see the Bucs winning 5-6 games next season.  If they are lucky.

Yesterday was full of big time players having big time games.  If you had those big time players on your team you are feeling really good today, if you went against them, you are cussing your dog. Here are some of the high and low lights from yesterday.

It is fun watching Chris Johnson go all Tecmo Bowl Jackson on everyone if you own him or aren’t playing against him on your fantasy team or you happen to like the Titans.  I can’t give you any interesting analysis accept to say that Johnson will most likely be the #1 player to go in most drafts next year, which means he’ll have a down season.

Brandon Marshall: He broke T.O.’s single game 20 reception record with 21 which was 15 more completions than the whole Browns’ team, actually more completions than 18 teams.  I think this means he is good.

Desean Jackson: Long Division Jackson went off on the Giants last night to the tune of 178 yards receiving, 1 touchdown and one punt return for a touchdown.  The man has speed to spare, but he ain’t gonna share!

Ray Rice: The Pocket Mighty Hercules Mouse does it again.  He had 203 total yards and a touchdown at halftime! Sadly Daunte Culpepper shouldn’t really be playing football anymore and Rice got a lot of the 2nd half to catch up on his sudoku. He’s now easily a top 5 draft pick next year.

Andre Johnson: Matt Schaub had over 330 yards before half and AJ had done most of his damage before half as well, ending with 11 receptions, 193 yards and 2 touchdowns. They get St. Louis next week.  Hope that they aren’t sat before half time.

Kevin Smith: He looks like he’ll be done for the year with torn ligaments in his knee.  Maurice Morris will probably get most of his work, but since you are in the playoffs you probably have a good enough team that you don’t need Mo Mo.  I really had high hopes for Smith this year.  He has to go on my top 10, 2009 all disappointment team.

Fred Davis: He had 3 receptions for 50 yards and 2 touchdowns.  I had Davis as a bust since the Raiders hadn’t given up a touchdown to a tight end all season.  They have now given up 2.  If he is a free agent he is worth grabbing, especially if you have Dallas Clark who might not play much in week 16.

Keith Null: With the amount of interceptions he threw (5) his performance was worse than null.  If only they could void the whole team while playing Steven Jackson they might have a chance.

Jason Campbell: He is coming around.  Even traveling cross country and playing in the black hole behind a horrible offensive line wouldn’t deter him.  They get the Giants awful pass defense next week.  You may see him on some sleeper lists.

JaMarcus Russell: He came in after Gradkowski was hurt and then for some reason the Redskins extended their lead.  Russell is a dead albatross hanging around the Raiders’ metaphorical neck and he is getting all gross and rotten.

Steven Jackson: He hasn’t been practicing because of his herniated disc, but he has been able to perform on Sundays.  Those days may be behind him and his fantasy owners.  With his back and Null voiding out his effectiveness, it may be time to start questioning if you should start him or not.

Randy Moss: He looked a little like the Raiders version of Randy Moss and if you own him he hurt your team on Sunday and probably your playoff hopes. You still play him, but you are not happy!

Jamaal Charles: I just have to give him his due again.  He knocked off a 76 yard touchdown run and looked like he had a couple extra gears.  Todd has been too embarrassed to call me since I have been bugging him to start JC from day one.

Eddie Royal: He had 1 catch for 3 yards while watching Brandon Marshall targeted 27 times.  This is the same guy who returned 2 kicks for touchdowns in one game this season.  Why not throw him the ball? Drop him if for some reason you haven’t yet.

Antonio Bryant: He was shut down by Revis as suspected, but gets Seattle next week.  That’s the same team that just gave up 193 yards and 2 touchdowns to Andre Johnson.  You need to get him in your lineup next week.

Chris Brown: He lost a goal line carry to Ryan Moats.  Drop him! Moats and now Arian Foster are getting most of the work. I didn’t get to see Foster run, but I heard he looked pretty good.  This RBBC is painful to dissect, but Moats lost a fumble and you know how much Kubiak likes that.  I would stay away unless you are desperate.

Reggie Bush: He touched the ball 12 times which is the first time he has gone over 10 since week 3.  Of course he scored twice on those 12 touches.  He is infuriating, just like the whole Saints backfield.  Who dat? I really don’t know!

Marshawn Lynch: He had another good game, but is still backing up Fred Jackson.  They were both usable against the Chiefs, but they don’t get to play the Chiefs every week.

Editors note: I’d like to thank Jen for joining the Razzball team.  We might have to take the pinball machine out of the women’s bathroom at Razzball headquarters! Follow her insightful twitter comments here.

QB: START: Joe Flacco (v. DET): I know, he’s been an overall fantasy disappointment the last few weeks, especially given his great start to the season. His three interceptions in primetime Monday night were atrocious, along with penalties galore, made for an ugly performance. But the Ravens, especially Flacco, have the chance to redeem themselves this week with a matchup against a weak Detroit defense. With Flacco most likely eager to right all his wrongs from Monday night, and with the Ravens trying to stay in playoff contention, expect him to have a much better showing this week against the Lions.

Other starts: Ben Roethlisberger (@CLE), Vince Young (@StL), Kurt Warner (v. SF), Philip Rivers (@DAL), Tony Romo (v.SD), David Garrard (v.MIA), Chad Henne (@JAX)

SIT: Jay Cutler (v. GB): This is probably obvious, but I would like to essentially nip in the bud anyone’s idea of possibly thinking about starting him after not throwing picks last week. Chances are, you have a better option available for picking up. Keep in mind that last week, Cutler played the lowly Rams, and the overall game plan was very cautious, mostly looking to Forte and the run in the red zone (because we know Jay Cutler is the King of the Red Zone Interception). Against a Green Bay defense who played quite well against Baltimore and held the running game in check and pulled down three picks, an unreliable Cutler is not a smart start.

SIT: Whoever is the QB on Sunday for the Falcons (most likely Matt Ryan): Plainly and simply, Sunday will not be a great situation for whichever quarterback is under center. If it is Matt Ryan, there are reports out saying that his turf toe is not completely healed, and that he will probably not be playing at his best if and when going against the Saints. With the Saints narrowly avoiding devastating embarrassment last week against the Redskins, I’m sure they will not want to sweat another one out like that again this week. Already a borderline start just simply based on injury, with Roddy White also not at 100%, and a once-strong running game down the tubes, the Saints look that much closer to the perfect season. And, if Chris Redman starts, there’s not much I need to write here that should deter you from starting him. Quite frankly,  the thought should have never crossed your mind. Overall, the QB position (whoever has it) this week for the Falcons should be on your bench.

Other sits: Matt Moore (@NE), Kyle Orton (@IND)

RB: START: Kevin Smith (@BAL): While Kevin Smith is generally productive every week, this looks like it could be a particularly productive week for him. Although Baltimore does have a stout defense, they have been known to give up a few rushing yards here and there. Plus, with Matthew Stafford sitting this one out, the more cautious approach with Culpepper at QB would be to hand off to Smith as much as possible.

START: Fred Jackson (@KC): Since FJax has officially moved ahead of Marshawn Lynch on the Buffalo depth chart, he is primed to have a great game for two reasons: 1)Kansas City’s defense, which is ranked 31st in the league and 2) a poor performance against the Jets last week, which should motivate him to bring his A game to keep his new starting spot. This game in general should be very heavy on the run, with both teams notorious for having porous rushing defenses and relatively unproven quarterbacks. So, in that case, also start Jamaal Charles (who is not on the KC injury report).

START: LaDainian Tomlinson (@DAL): Last week, the Cowboys faced a Giants’ running game that was depleted with injuries and had been struggling for weeks. Brandon Jacobs, who has been a disappointment to fantasy owners this season, caught and ran for the longest reception of his career, scored 2 TDs, and had many productive runs. Ahmad Bradshaw, who has two sprained ankles and cracked bones in his feet, even managed to grab some first downs against a Cowboys defense that typically falls short in the twelfth month of the year. That all being said, I think LT is primed for a good week this week.

Other starts: Chris Johnson (duh! @StL) , Thomas Jones (@TB),  Laurence Maroney (v.CAR), Maurice-Jones Drew (v. MIA), Quinton Ganther (@OAK)

SIT: Brandon Jacobs (v.PHI): I know I just praised his Week 13 performance, but it was just that; in Week 13. Do not expect that explosive of a performance again against Philadelphia. While chances are he will get a decent amount of carries, what he will do with them will probably not be much. Last time the Giants played the Eagles was a total disaster, and Kevin Gilbride, Giants’ offensive coordinator, rarely calls appropriate plays for what Jacobs is good at and has been calling too many passing plays. Overall, it will probably be a mediocre performance for Jacobs at best on Sunday night.

Other sits: Cedric Benson (@MIN), Julius Jones (v.HOU), Cadillac Williams/Derrick Ward (v.NYJ)

WR: START: DeSean Jackson (@NYG): Though this is obvious, some may be concerned with Jackson’s possible post-concussion symptoms. He has assured that he is fine and playing on Sunday (although keep an eye for any change just to be safe). While generally, the Giants do cover him with the very capable Corey Webster, the rest of the Giants secondary probably will not do as good a job covering him, especially with safety C.C. Brown occasionally having to take on that task. Last time the Giants played the Eagles, C.C. Brown was basically responsible for the blown coverage on every receiving touchdown, and later publicly blamed himself for it. Plus, if the Giants defend against the run as well as they did against the Cowboys last week, chances are McNabb will have to pass. So, have no worries about starting DJax.

START: Santonio Holmes (@CLE): With Hines Ward likely out, and no defenders on the secondary for Cleveland to speak of, Santonio stands to get targeted quite a bit Thursday night. He should, by default (if he’s not already) become the Steelers’ #1 WR. This also increases the value of Mike Wallace, particularly as a WR3 in deep leagues or as a flex.

START: Pierre Garcon (v.DEN): Chances are, Champ Bailey will have his work cut out for him with Reggie Wayne. With Garcon being targeted so frequently last week against the Titans, look for that again. Austin Collie also becomes a viable starter as well.

Other starts: Jeremy Maclin (@NYG), Larry Fitzgerald, Anquan Boldin (v.SF), Robert Meacham/Marques Colston (@ATL), Chris Chambers (@BUF), Terrell Owens (v. KC),

SIT: The Seahawks WRs (Burleson and Houshmanzadeh): With Matt Hasselbeck’s value on the decline, and the emergence of Justin Forsett in the running game, the Seattle receivers have not been having great weeks as of late. The Texans have also emerged as a somewhat strong defense, and are in in the Top 15 as far as guarding fantasy WRs as well as pass rush. Therefore, don’t expect big days from Nate Burleson or T.J. Houshmanzadeh.

SIT: Antonio Bryant (v. NYJ): Two words: Darrelle Revis.

Other sits: Devin Hester/Earl Bennett (v. GB),  Santana Moss (@OAK)

TE: START: Todd Heap: With majority of Joe Flacco’s targets going toward Heap, combined with the amount of drops and offensive pass interference calls from some of his other WRs, the Ravens will probably send the ball Heap’s way again against the Lions.

Other TE starts: Vernon Davis (@ARI), Brent Celek (@NYG), Kellen Winslow (v.NYJ)

SIT: Greg Olsen (v.GB): I think that you probably realize that by now, I’m very down on the Bears. With Cutler and Forte both struggling, don’t expect much to go on, especially against Green Bay with the Packers wanting a wild card spot and playing a division rival. Olson has been rendered ineffective in many a game this season despite being Cutler’s favorite target. Expect this week to be no different.

DEF: START: NYJ (@TB): With Josh Freeman’s interception filled game last week, expect a strong Jets’ secondary to dismantle Freeman and Tampa Bay.

START: TEN (@StL): Again, probably does not require much of an explanation. Kyle Boller is awful, and with the re-emergence of the Titans in general and the return of their cornerbacks, expect low scoring from the Rams and the opportunity for interceptions.

SIT: SD (@DAL): Tony Romo had a strong game against the Giants last week, put up a lot of points, but still the Cowboys lost. Expect a strong showing from Romo again and expect that this game will probably be a shootout.

Davone Bess-clearly the “Bess” receiver on the team, the man with the predator locks has emerged as a confident, productive receiver over the past few weeks.  Bess was fourth in the league last week with 14 targets and he has 25 over the past three weeks.  His monster game on Sunday during which he grabbed ten passes for 117 yards and a touchdown was clearly his most proficient game of the year, but Bess’ best may be yet to come.  He faces the abysmal Jaguars pass defense next weekend and could be a great flex play for those of you looking to gain a playoff berth.  He also faces the Titans and the Texans in the fantasy playoffs respectively.

Antonio Bryant-Bryant has come back strong from injury and he is showing why some drafted him in the middle of the pack.  Last week, he was 14^th in the league with 11 targets, catching five passes for 116 yards against Carolina.  This was an improvement on his performance against Atlanta in week 12 during which he caught three passes for 91 yards.  Bryant is a big-play guy and though I don’t like his matchup this week against the Jets, he draws Seattle and NO for the playoffs.  If he is available on waivers I would definitely go after him.

Michael Crabtree-though the former holdout has yet to have a breakout game, Crabtree has been nothing if not consistent.  Over his last four games he is averaging 4.5 catches and 60 yards per contest and last week against Seattle he grabbed six passes for 60 yards.  As the Niners’ #1 guy, Crabtree gets his share of targets and he had 13 last week, good for 6^th in the league.  Over the past three weeks, Crabtree has received 27 targets which puts him towards the top of all receivers.  Though Crabtree’s ceiling is low, if you are looking for a solid 8-12 points from your flex spot, he could be worth a look.  He also has Detroit in week 16.  It should be worth noting here that Josh Morgan has seen his targets skyrocket as well and he is fifth in RZ targets over the last three weeks (5).  Morgan could be worthy of consideration in deeper leagues.

Robert Meachem-I seem to keep coming back to him, and quite frankly, he continues to impress me.  I have owned Meachem for the last four weeks, electing to start him only once and I have regretted it.  The big knock on Meachem is his consistency, but over the last four weeks he has simply been a fantasy monster.  I think it is safe to say that he has surpassed Devery Henderson as Brees’ second favorite receiving target, and over the last three games, Meachem has commanded 19 targets, tying him with Colston for the team lead.  Meachem also gets a lot of attention in the RZ and his eight catch, 142 yard game made me a believer that he was more than just a guy who catches touchdowns.  Oh yeah, and Meachem scored yet again, bringing his touchdown total to eight, a team high.  I am definitely starting him this week against a piss porous Atlanta pass defense.

Louis Murphy-Murphy is getting a lot of hype this week due to his four catch, 128 yard and a touchdown performance last week, but I would be a reluctant to waste a waiver claim on him.  Over his last three games before last Sunday, Murphy had a total of three receptions for 51 yards.  Murphy has 18 targets over his last three games and though Gradkowski has provided a much needed spark to the Raider offense, I think the smarter waiver choice would be Meachem, Bryant, or Bess in that order.

Devin Thomas-Thomas was targeted eight times on Sunday and twice in the RZ.  Thomas made good on seven of those targets, garnering 100 yards and two touchdowns.  Like Murphy, Thomas has not been particularly productive aside from last week’s game, but he has been more of a consistent contributor to his team’s offense.  The Skin’s play Oakland, NYG, and Dallas in the coming weeks, which means that Thomas could have some value in the playoffs.  His 21 targets over the last three games should also raise some eyebrows and even if you can’t find a spot for him on your roster this year, he could be an intriguing option for next year in keeper leagues.

Devin Hester-over the past three weeks, Hester has all but vanished from fantasy relevancy.  This is largely due to his lack of targets as he has only 16 targets over the last three games, tying him with teammate Earl Bennett and putting him just two ahead of Johnny Knox.  Over that same span, Hester has only managed a total of five catches for 86 yards and zero touchdowns.  Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like things will get much better for Hester who draws Green Bay, Baltimore, and Minnesota over the next three weeks.

Pierre Garcon-once again, Garcon is on the list after another stellar performance against a tough Tennessee defense on Sunday during which he caught six passes for 136 yards.  More importantly, Garcon’s targets have been increasing steadily and over the last three games Garcon has surpassed Wayne in that category (27 to 24 respectively).  Though Wayne is clearly the man, Garcon deserves to be started weekly at a WR 2 or flex spot depending on the matchup.

Target Trends Over the Last Three Weeks

Potentially Available Players With Over 25 Targets and Their Rank in the League

7. Brandon Gibson (30)

10. Mohammed Massaquoi (29)

11. Donnie Avery (29)

17. Pierre Garcon (27)

17. Kenny Britt (27)

17. Michael Crabtree (27)

25. Davone Bess (25)

#1 Guys With Under 20 Targets and Their Rank in the League

40. Nate Burleson (20)

40. Housh (20)

45. Marques Colston (19)

47. Vincent Jackson (18)

47. Roy Williams (18)

57. Devin Hester (16)

71. Greg Jennings (14)

Top 5 RZ Targets

1. Brandon Marshall (12)

2. Andre Johnson (9)

3. Pierre Garcon (8)

4. Santana Moss (7)

5. Josh Morgan (6)