1. Drew Brees: Interesting fact about Drew Brees, he was a member of the Sigma Chi fraternity. Now, if that is a frat that brews warm tea and milk drinks I am there! This guy almost threw for 2.9 miles last season! And that was without Colston and Bush for part of the year. I could play right guard and Hank could play slot and Brees would still throw for 4,000 yds.
Brees’ average draft position is 15 right now. Can you wait until the second round? Do you want Matt Forte more than Brandon Jacobs? Will Rivers or Rodgers give you comparable numbers in the 3rd or early 4th round? Maybe, possibly, and could be, but will Brees give you top 5 overall fantasy numbers? I think so. ADP: 15 Projection: 4650/36/14
2. Tom Brady: September 7th 2008, you just sank down into your barcalounger, NFL Sunday Ticket is reflecting off your fine premium pilsner, and your fantasy QB, who threw 50 TD’s just the season before is playing against the hapless Kansas City Chiefs. What could go wrong?
Well, you know what could and did go wrong. Tom Brady knocked up his girlfriend and then dumped her for Giselle and then Chiefs safety Bernard Pollard tore Brady’s ACL, MCL, and if we would have had Razzball Commenter Leagues back then, whoever owned him in the RCL.
Will he return to his 2007 form? It isn’t like he’s the most nimble QB in the league so he doesn’t need to run. The guy can’t even navigate a kayak. He hardly gets sacked and he has Moss, Welker and now Galloway. And who is going to take away yards on the ground? No one, that’s who. It really is a toss up on who should be the #1 QB in fantasy drafts this year. If you get stuck with Brady, I think you’ll be able to enjoy that beer this September. ADP: 19 Projection: 4550/35/13
3. Peyton Manning: The new coach of the Indianapolis Colts should have yet another Hall of Fame season. What? He’s not the new coach? I must be out of the loop. Anyway, Manning had a “down” year last year due to his knee getting all gross and infected, but with a little Bactine he got back to his old self and had a masterful second half. Now with Harrison out of the picture he has the great trio of Reggie Wayne, Anthony Gonzalez and Dallas Clark to throw to and he will get his numbers back into elite territory. ADP 27 Projection: 4300/32/9
4. Philip Rivers: Rivers was a perfect QB last season. Very few interceptions, tied for the league lead in passing TD’s, led the league in yards per pass while still being near the top in completion percentage, and somehow still looked red-faced and irritable through it all. He is an elite QB and should stay that way. I see no reason to really reach for the top 3 QB’s if you can grab Rivers near the end of the 4th or beginning of the 5th round. ADP 46 Projection: 4150/34/13
5. Aaron Rodgers: Life in the shadow of Brett Favre must have been full of miracle grow and Moo-Nure because Rodgers sprouted and flourished and probably smelled a little after games. He finished last year only behind Brees in fantasy points. This can be attributed to his 4 TD’s on the ground. I don’t think you can bank on those kinds of rushing numbers, but Greg Jennings and Donald Driver will continue their excellent play and Rodgers will only improve. ADP 37 Projection: 4000/29/13 – 2/125
6. Donovan McNabb: How this guy continues to do well with his weak receivers is a mystery to me. He has Westbrook who will be injured off and on, but should play enough to still be his safety valve most of the season and DeSean Jackson will continue to improve in the wide open offense. If you draft McNabb you have to know he might have those disastrous games that will get him benched, like last year against the Ravens, but he’ll also come back and throw four TD’s, like he did against the Cardinals the next week. ADP 61 Projection: 3750/25/12 – 1/125
7. Tony Romo: One of the most loved and most hated players since Billy Joe Tolliver, Romo has been on TMZ more than the Wheaties box (do they still do that?). This is his year to prove himself. With no TO or Jessica, he should be able to focus on winning games. He has his BFF Witten, a good receiver in Roy (I play offense) Williams, a deep threat in Miles Austin and good running backs, with good hands. A great season in Big D isn’t a lock, but Romo has the skill and the team to shut up his detractors. ADP 60 Projection: 4000/26/14 – 1/50
8. Kurt Warner: The former bag boy for Jesus is still kickin’ and fumblin’ and chuckin’ interceptions, but he’s also racking up yardage and TD’s and has arguably the best wide receiver corp in the NFL. There is always a chance Warner’s hip will snap in a bath tub tumble, but if you’re willing to risk that, he can give you top 5 numbers. ADP 50, 4000/30/15
9. Matt Schaub: I think I had my whole stock portfolio with this guy when the bubble burst. But I’m willing to give him another chance. With arguably the best receiver in the game and a top 10 RB who can catch passes out of the backfield Schaub has the tools to do well. But often his tools get all worn and cracked and he can’t use them; tools like his knees and shoulder and other various parts he needs to play football. So Schaub carries a bit of risk, but a lot of reward. ADP 75 Projection: 3550/26/12
10. Matt Ryan: Ryan was lucky to have Michael Turner crashing into lineman and linebackers and taking the heat off. Of course Ryan was no slouch and showed a poise most rookie quarterbacks or even veteran quarterbacks don’t usually have. It is hard to project much of a regression in his sophomore season with Tony Gonzalez coming in to block and catch. He’s about as solid as any second year QB you’ll ever see. ADP 70 Projection: 3350/23/11/ – 1/175