FanDuel, Week 1: Picks, Pricing, and Preview

Ladies and Gentleman. Boys and Girls. It is almost Week 1 of the regular season, and I just cannot wait. Can you smell that? That smell of pigskin, the smell of 1,000+ calorie dishes? I have never been as ready as I am today. As I sat on my couch late Saturday night, watching my Wisconsin Badgers get taken to school by Alabama, I realized something. “Hey”, thought I. “Don’t you have an post to write about dealing with Week 1 DFS for Razzball?” Well yes, Zach, yes I do. So here I am. Seriously, I thought about something very interesting while watching ‘Bama-Wisconsin. Here is Wisconsin’s HB Corey Clement’s stat line on Saturday night.

Clement could not run the ball to save his life, and a result, it ended mine. The Alabama Defense was just too good, and as a result, Wisconsin had to throw the ball to stay in the game. Meanwhile, on the other side of the field, here is the stat line for Alabama HB Derrick Henry.

Depressing. The defense was so great, that all the Crimson Tide had to do was run the ball. They didn’t need to throw the ball a lot, because their defense was so excellent. They were always ahead. The same happens in the NFL. When a team is down by multiple scores, they don’t have time to run the ball. They throw, and they throw some more. And when a team is straight out dominant, they run the ball to kill clock. Let’s face it, there’s stuff to do after the game. This key stat is important when playing any type of fantasy, DFS or season-long. Eli Manning is a great fantasy quarterback, because their defense is so awful, they throw the ball to stay in the game, instead of giving it to Rashad Jennings, who last year, averaged 58 yards a game.

So this week, consider this: Picking a running back who won’t run the ball a ton, due to the team playing from behind, isn’t a smart move. Picking a RB who has a great defense (playing against a weak offense), is a very smart move. A move that could result in six-figure winnings…

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Quarterbacks

Tyrod Taylor, QB BUF ($5,000) – Tyrod Taylor probably won’t score above 20 points this week. With that being said, he is still a great option against the weak Indianapolis defense. Blake Bortles scored 22.2 fantasy points in week 3 of the regular season last year. If Blake can, you can bet Tyrod can. The reason why I said Taylor won’t score 20 points, is because I do not believe he will. However, the name of the game in DFS is bang for your buck. And even 17 points is a lot of bang for $5,000. However, ask yourself this question: “Is $5,000 worth it if Taylor will be highly-owned?” And by highly-owned, I mean 13% or more. If the answer is yes, fire away.

Carson Palmer, ARI ($7,700) – Oh Carson, how I do love you so very much. I shall write a poem about you now. Oh Carson Palmer, how people do not like you, they think you are injured, Carson Palmer. Oh Carson, oh Carson, did you know that you scored, 20+ points in five straight weeks, before you got hurt? Oh Carson, oh Carson, you shall make me rich. And then, my wife shall come back. Thank you Carson Palmer. That felt better. Anyway, the dude scored 20+ points in five straight weeks before he got hurt. And now he isn’t. He also has a heathy and revamped WR corps in John Brown, Larry Fitzgerald, and Andre Ellington out of the backfield. His O-Line is top notch, and he is facing the Saints. Here’s one word to summarize the Saint’s D. Rob Ryan. That is all.

Sam Bradford, PHI ($7,500) – I don’t have much stats to prove that Sam Bradford is a great play in FanDuel this week. However, he’s healthy, Chip Kelly likes him, and he has Nelson Agholor, Jordan Matthews, and a good TE in Celek or Ertz. Plus, he is facing a bad D in Atlanta. And, to top it all off, the Eagles defense is bad, and remember what I said about passing the ball when you’re down, tied, or up by 3.

Running Backs

Justin Forsett, BAL ($7,800) – Justin Forsett will put up HB1 numbers this Sunday, which is good for you and me. So, good job. He rushed for almost 3,000 yards last year, with 16 touchdowns. And, he caught the ball 159 times for 1,113 yards and 1 TD. And guess who loves pass catching backs? New OC Mark Tressman. Just look at Matt Forte last year. His price makes me squeal with delight, and the fact that the Denver rush defense lost Jack Del Rio is tragic. Almost as bad as what Wisconsin did on Saturday night. Tragic.

Ameer Abdullah, DET ($5,900) – Quick stat of the day to you stat nerds.

This was on November 15, 2014, and Nebraska lost to the Badgers 59-24. Melvin Gordon rushed for and FBS-record 408 yards. Suck it Ameer. Let’s get back to DFS football. Abdullah has had a very impressive training camp, and even some reporters have said that he will get most of the carries for the time being. I’m sold on him, and you should too. He’s a great HB2 to save you some money for those WR’s. Plus, the defense for San Diego is okay.

Dion Lewis, NE ($4,500) – Very big sleeper. Very huge. “Who will start for the Patriots Week 1”, says you? Very good question, you. Possibly Brandon Bolden, however Dion Lewis might be the starter, and he is definitely the pass-catching HB. So if there is anything constant in Bill Belichick’s backfield, fire away. Because a definite Bill Belichick is a weird one, because he usually isn’t one. I am putting Lewis on this list of good HB’s, but I don’t have the balls to play him. Hopefully you do.

Wide Receivers

Demaryius Thomas, DEN ($8,800) – The strategy when selecting WR’s in DFS is to get a top-tier WR, a mid-tier, and sleeper. So if I could have any WR as my main man, I would choose Thomas. He’s going against a very weak Baltimore secondary. Many people are worried that C.J. Anderson’s production will take away from Peyton Manning throwing the ball like he did, and Demaryius’ production going down because of this. Manning probably won’t pass the ball as much as he did last year, however it still won’t affect Thomas and how well he does on the field.

Jordan Matthews, PHI ($6,800) – If you are a very good boy. And you don’t want Daddy to leave you, you will pick Jordan Matthews. As a part of my three point plan for this week regarding WR’s, Demaryius is a #1, and Jordan Matthews will definitely make a difference as a #2 receiver. Also, if you choose Jordan Matthews, chances are (unless something crazy happens) Samuel Bradford will be throwing him the ball. A good QB for Jordan Matthews, at a cheap price, and the #1 guy in a Chip Kelly offense all means that Daddy won’t be leaving. Also, during the final 3 weeks of the regular season last year, he outscored Jeremy Maclin.

Rueben Randle, NYG ($5,300) – Here’s a sleeper for you guys. With Victor Cruz not being 100% percent healthy for the start of the regular season, someone has to step in (not named Odell Beckham Jr.) and take over as the #2 option. This will be a high scoring game, and do you remember what happens during the Giants-‘Boys games in the first week? Kevin Ogletree? Miles Austin in 2012, ’11, and ’10? Hakeem Nicks in 2010? Crazy things happen in Week 1 in the NFL season when Dallas and New York face each other. Take advantage of it.

Tight Ends

Tyler Eifert, CIN ($5,000) – The Oakland Raiders defense is a weak one, and Eifert should take advantage of it. He’s had some bad luck in the previous year’s regarding injuries, however, when you make defenders miss in Training Camp, it gets my attention. A cheap play against a weak defense, with opportunity is a good formula to have.

Kickers and Defense & Special Teams

Mason Crosby, GB ($5,100) – I don’t care about his price, the Pack should lay down the pain (with TD’s) against the Bears like they always do, with or without Jordy Nelson

Tampa Bay Buccaneers ($4,500) – The name sounded cool. I’m kidding of course, the Bucs should do well and force Mariota to make some questionable decisions on the run.

Other Sleepers

Delanie Walker, TEN ($5,400) – Rookie QB’s lean on their TE’s

Austin Seferian-Jenkins, TB ($4,700) – Rookie QB’s lean on their TE’s

Benny Cunningham, STL ($5,100) – Yes, he’ll be the starter, but against the Seahawks? I don’t care for him but you can, we just can’t be friends.

Aaron Rodgers, GB ($9,700) – No one will take him.

Browns D/ST ($4,600) – The Jets still suck.

Allen Robinson ($6,100) – #1 Option in Jacksonville with Julius Thomas being hurt

So, there we have it. Good luck to everyone, and hopefully I am right. Oh and one more thing. Wisconsin plays Miami (OH) next Saturday on ESPNU. We’ll win…

You Can Follow Zach On Twitter @ohuhave12