Fantasy Football Advice

Tight ends are barely above kickers and defenses on my fantasy totem, but that is more because of the need to only start one.  With tight ends becoming more and more offensive, I don’t see any reason not to make 2 TE leagues more prevalent.  That will be my goal next season, to join a 2 TE league, then all my hopes and dreams will have finally come to fruition.

Tier 1

1. Vernon Davis 26 — He’s always had the skills, but now he’s got the stats.

2. Antonio Gates 30 — He’s the second target in a pass first team and is probably the best TE now.

3. Dallas Clark 31 — He’s getting up there in age, but still has Manning.

4. Jermichael Finley 23 — Too young and good to pass up.  I could see gambling on him earlier.

5. Jason Witten 28 — Had a bit of a down year, but he hasn’t lost it.

Tier 2

6. Brent Celek 25 — Looked great last season and is in a great offense for TE.

7. Owen Daniels 27 — He’d be in that top tier if it wasn’t for his injury.

8. Kellen Winslow 27 — He’s the focal point of the Bucs inept offense right now.

9. Chris Cooley 28 — He’s consistent and should rebound from his injury and association with OCNN.

Tier 3

10. Zach Miller (OAK) 24 — On just about any other team he’d be a lot higher.

11. Greg Olsen 25 — Olsen is good, but now has Martz to deal with.

Tier 4

12. Brandon Pettigrew 25 — I grabbed Brandon “Peter” Pettigrew in my dynasty league.

13. Dustin Keller 26 — Keeps showing flashes of brilliance. He goes as Sanhcise goes.

Tier 5

14. Tony Gonzalez 34 — Wow, this guy keeps on going.  Make sure you grab an upside young guy to pair with him.

15. John Carlson 26 — He’s good, but Seattle is bad.  Carroll will be the big factor in how many touches he gets.

16. Heath Miller 27 — Solid and steady sometimes wins the race.

Tier 6

17. Tony Scheffler 27 — Depending on where he ends up, I see him having a comeback.

18. Vinsanthe Shiancoe 30 — Favre really boosted his numbers.  Could do that again, but I believe he needs the old man.

19. Kevin Boss 26 — He will be a good TE #2 for years to come.

Tier 7

20. Zach Miller 25 — The last game of the season saw Zach Millers scoring a bunch of TD’s.  Miller should start to cut into Mercede Lewis’ playing time.

21. Ben Watson 29 — Going to the Browns doesn’t sound like an upgrade, but Watson needed to get out of Belichick’s dog house.

22. Jared Cook 23 — With the resigining of Scaife, Cook will probably need to wait another season, but he has the skills to be good in the long term.

Tier 8

23. Marcedes Lewis 27 — Will have to fight Miller off.

24. Bo Scaife 29 — Still a starter, but (insert Scaife sucking joke).

25. Todd Heap 30 — He’s not even close to the player he once was.

26. Jeremy Shockey 30 — Nagging injuries and grossness keep him in the basement.

27. David Thomas 27 — The founder of Wendy’s will once again be filling in for Shockey.

It’s that time of the year where we look back on our stupid moves and pretend to learn from them.  Did you just waste away your life hoping Matt Forte would stop sucking? No! You have become a better person for it! Or, you are still curled up on your bathroom floor in the fetal position, either or. Let’s take a gander at some of the more sucky of the suckiest suckers in the NFL and laugh at them instead of ourselves!

I used Fantasy Football Calculator for 2009 ADP and ESPN fantasy points for how each player finished.

Matt Forte: 4th RB off the board, finished 17th — Why was Matt Forte such a high draft pick? Well, he scored 12 touchdowns, caught 63 passes and totaled 1700 yards in his first season for a team led by Kyle Orton.  If he comes close to that he’s a top fantasy back and there wasn’t much reason to think he couldn’t improve with a better QB at the helm.  But of course it didn’t work out the way we thought.  Will Forte bounce back from this season?  It’s hard not to see him getting into the end zone more than 4 times, but I’m hesitant to call for a huge year.  He says he was battling a MCL sprain all season and we know how poor the O-line play was, but he just doesn’t have the elite speed and open field ability to make his own yards.  As long as he continues to be the every down back he will be worth starting, but I’m already seeing him going very early in mock drafts and unless he falls he won’t be on my team.

Michael Turner: 3rd RB, finished 22nd — Turner is an interesting case.  A lot of perts have been patting themselves on the back for predicting Turner to have a down year, and of course they were correct, but a high ankle sprain doesn’t automatically come from overuse from the previous year.  It didn’t help, but there’s no reason to think he can’t heal completely from that injury and return to ‘08 numbers. This season he averaged 4.9 yards per carry and the 8th most fantasy points per game.  He also scored 10 touchdowns and is a certified TD machine. I am of course a little worried about his health, and there are a ton of good backs to choose from, but if he slides in ADP he will have value.

LaDainian Tomlinson: 6th RB, finished 20th — I was worried about LT going into the season, but I should have been more worried.  He was still 29 years old coming off a season with turf toe that I felt could heal up, but it wasn’t just the toe that was keeping him down.  His 12 touchdowns barely kept him in the top 20, which shows you just how bad his rushing and receiving stats must have been.  If he’s even in the league next season, there is absolutely no reason to draft him in the top 30 running backs.

Calvin Johnson: 4th WR, finished 23rd — In ‘08 he was able to play well on a horrible team with horrible QB’s.  We all were living in an ‘08 bubble of Megatron goodness and that bubble burst.  I haven’t seen too many mock drafts yet, but I don’t think he’s going to fall too far in drafts.  He was injured, has elite ability, and will have a lot of time to get in synch with Matthew Stafford in preseason.  I don’t see any reason to be scared away from him next season and if he falls just a little in drafts he could have value.

Steve Slaton: 9th RB, finished 35th — In many ways Slaton had a better ‘08 season than Forte.  He had much better yards per carry, his running style kept him from getting hit as much, and he was on a better offensive team.  But then the S.S. Slaton took a fateful trip into the Kubiak Triangle.  There is now talk that the Texans will draft a running back and you can’t discount Arian Foster’s play.  It’s a situation to stay away from.

Brandon Jacobs: 11th RB, finished 29th — Mr. Jacobs is an enigma wrapped in a monsterous package.  Ahmad Bradshaw clearly outplayed him this year and that was with two broken feet!  Jacobs broke down toward the end of the season and it’s impossible to trust his health or his playing time coming into next season.

Greg Jennings: 6th WR, finished 20th — Jennings came into the season with a lot of hype, including hype of the Razzball variety.  If you were to tell me at the beginning of the season that Aaron Rodgers would be the #1 fantasy quarterback and Greg Jennings wasn’t going to get hurt and finish as the 20th best receiver I would have punched you in the throat.

Brian Westbrook: 12th RB, finished 62nd — He was risky coming into the season so this outcome wasn’t too hard to foresee.  Him and the guy that follows are the reason you draft young and on the rise instead of . . .

Clinton Portis: 13th RB, finished 56th — old and on the skids.

Jason Witten: 1st TE, finished 8th — This year 10 tight ends finished with 100 points or more which is a record and there is no reason to think that number is going to start falling anytime soon.  Jason Witten didn’t have a horrible year, but he was nowhere close to being worth the 41st overall pick.  The 40th overall pick was Ray Rice.  Unless you are in a 2 TE league, and why would you be?, there is absolutely no reason to reach for one.  I’m not saying punt, just be patient.

Reggie Bush: 23rd RB, finished 40th — This is just to remind you that even though Reggie Bush can put up insane single game numbers, he won’t put up insane full season numbers.

Eddie Royal: 21st WR, finished 82nd — This is one of the most baffling drop-offs of the year.  He never seemed to get a chance and it’s hard to tell if that was due to his inability, Orton’s inability, or McDaniels’ stupidity.  McDaniels mentioned after the season was over that he regretted Royal not getting more work and who knows where Brandon Marshall will end up.  Royal is already hitting sleeper lists, and unless he gets hyped too much he’s probably worth a flier next season.

Pittsburgh Steelers: 1st D, finished 16th — The Steelers’ defense averaged as the 86th overall pick in last year’s draft.  This is the reason you do not draft a defense early.  Let’s take a look at some players that went after the Steelers; Percy Harvin, Ahmad Bradshaw, Derrick Mason, Tim Hightower, Brett Favre, Rashard Mendenhall, Miles Austin, etc… Yes, you might have drafted Lavernues Coles instead, but what are the chances that you will pick a defense that is startable every week?  None whatsoever!  The #1 defense in fantasy this year was the 49ers who weren’t even drafted this season and the #2 defense, the New York Jets, were drafted 127th overall.  Draft a defense with upside late in the draft, then stream the hot D (does that sound dirty?).

Another weekend of playoff games, another blowout fest until the very last game, but even that game wasn’t really in doubt toward the end.  Hopefully next week we’ll get a little more excitement with Favre in the bayou and Manning navigating around Revis Island.  Here are my thoughts and postulations and consternations on the divisional games.  Read at your own risk:

Brett Favre: No matter what you think of him he will always be remembered for his “pants on the ground” locker room celebration, which should automatically disqualify him from Canton.  Favre threw for four TD’s and 234 yards while humiliating the Cowboys and gets to play in another dome on Sunday which he seems to like.

Sidney Rice: He’s just getting stronger in the big games and will continue to be Favre’s favorite receiver.  He tallied 141 yards and 3 touchdowns and is slowly rising on draft boards.  Much of his value is tied to Favre so if you want him on your team next season you’ll have to put up with Favreageddon this offseason.

Tony Romo: The Vikings absolutely demolished the Cowboy’s offensive line and pillaged Tony Romo’s manhood.  For as often as he was running from Flash Dance Headbanded Mullet Man it’s amazing he didn’t throw more than one interception.  There is no reason to think he won’t be a top fantasy QB again next season.

Felix Jones: Watching him run in comparison to Marion Barber was a bit like watching a remake of the Tortoise and the Hare, but in this version the hare’s wife is being held hostage by terrorists and he must beat the tortoise or his wife gets it.  Barber has beaten his body to death with the way he runs and looks like he’s lost a step.  Jones has given us some hope that he can stay healthy while getting 15 carries a game.  I am not going to feel good about taking either, but Jones will get his opportunity next season.

Jason Witten: With no time to pass Tony Romo had to get it off quickly to Witten so his 10 receptions for 98 yards isn’t too surprising. He started off slow this season, but finished strong.  He’s not as athletic and fast as Gates, Davis, Finley, etc, but he’ll continue to be productive in the Cowboy’s dynamic offense.  Thankfully you’ll be able to get him later in the draft next season.

Mark Sanchez: He’s doing his best Trent Dilfer impersonation, but I’m still sticking to my prediction that the passing game will prevail and that Peyton Manning will pick them apart, but as Sanchez develops he’ll have a great running game and defense to compliment his skills.

Shonn Greene: He ran for 128 yards and a touchdown on 23 carries and has seemingly taken over as the lead back and is making a strong case for starting camp as the #1 running back next season. It’s going to be hard not to push Greene on you next season, but there is a good chance Tom Jones will be back and Leon Washington should be ready to go as well.  It will be extremely hard to get Greene in a position of any value.

Philip Rivers: It felt a little like the Bolts took the Jets too lightly.  I could be wrong, but Rivers had only thrown 9 interceptions all year and threw 2 killer INT’s in this all important game.  Nate Kaeding didn’t help the situation, but Rivers just didn’t look sharp or ready for how well the Jets played.

Vincent Jackson: The Jets tried to confuse the Bolts by not shadowing VJax with Revis, and even though VJax finished the game with 111 yards they kept San Diego off balance. He was a great value pick this year, but will probably go higher and be drafted about where he should be next season.

LaDainian Tomlinson: Even though he was a TD machine once again this season he has lost more than a step.  Sproles clearly outplayed him against the Jets.  He will have to take a big pay cut to be the goal line back next year or he’ll be released.

Reggie Bush: In the rushing matchups article I wrote, “Reggie Bush will either have 10 touches and 3 touchdowns or 5 touches and a big fat Kardashian butt zero.” Nice riding of the fence Doc! Yeah, well, that’s what I do.  He ended up being much closer to the first prediction than the second with 2 TDs and around 200 total yards.  Hopefully this will keep people drafting him somewhat early so you can take someone who will get more than 5-10 touches a game and can stay healthy.

Drew Brees: He accumulated 247 yards and 3 touchdowns on his way to yet another great game.  You can’t say enough good things about Brees so I won’t try. He gets the Vikings suspect pass defense next week and his O-line should be more stable than Dallas’.  In the last 8 games the Saints have allowed 1.1 sacks per game which is second in the league.

Marques Colston: He looked like the elite receiver he should have been all year.  He’s just too tall and athletic and as long as he’s getting the opportunities I think he’ll have a good playoff run.

Jeremy Shockey: The grease from his hair was shipped in special from The Jersey Shore, but his doucheness was all his own.  He caught a TD while limping around, which I have to believe was done to bang more drunk chicks.

Kurt Warner: I guess Kurt didn’t pray hard enough or God just loves New Orleans more.  Wait, what was the whole hurricane thing about?  Whatever the reason, the Saints just destroyed the Cardinals.  Warner had to leave the game before halftime after getting blindsided and then he left the game again because his team had also been blindsided.  Will Warner retire? I think it’s probably 50/50 right now, but Cardinal’s fans better hope Leinart isn’t their QB next season.

Larry Fitzgerald: Tony Siragusa made an extremely astute observation when he said the Cardinals need to throw it to Larry Fitzgerald more. After they were getting killed they finally started throwing to him and he ended up with decent stats, but it was way too little too late.  Fitz is still an elite receiver and will go early in drafts, but keep an eye on that QB sitch.

Beanie Wells: He scored a TD, but that was about it. Beanie will be the main back going into next year, at least by a small margin, but he still isn’t trusted to block.  If he can get that squared away and take over on the goal line he could be a top RB next season, but don’t bank on it yet.  Hightower is trusted and that goes a long way.

Peyton Manning: Not since Australopithecus began to walk upright have we seen such evolution in the passing game. Or maybe it’s just that the NFL doesn’t let defenders touch receivers or quarterbacks, but whatever the reason, Peyton Manning can take over a game unlike any player in the NFL  I’m having maybe a bit too much love for Peyton’s skills, but he seems to have taken his game to another level.  The Ravens played extremely well on defense, but Manning took what he was given and didn’t try forcing the ball and it never really looked to be in doubt.  He gets to actually play the Jets this weekend and I bet you can guess who I think will win.

Reggie Wayne: He’s an elite receiver and showed it by catching 8 balls for 63 yards and a touchdown against a tough Ravens defense.  Now, as long as he doesn’t go bustin’ caps in random asses he could someday be the most beloved Indy receiver of all time.

Donald Brown: He split time with Mike Hart while backing up Joseph Addai, but on a couple runs showed some burst and moves that Hart just doesn’t have.  Expectations were fairly high for him this season, but hopefully his poor year will drop him into a manageable draft slot where he could have some value next season.

Joe Flacco: He was completely out played by the Colts, but I still think he has the ability to be a very good QB in this here league.  His injuries, lack of explosive wide receivers, and the emergence of Ray Rice made this season a running game centric one, and if they give him some help at receiver Flacco could easily balance out that offense.

Ray Rice: The Colts contained him, but “containing” him equals 127 total yards. I’ve said it before, but if McGahee is let go, Ray Rice will probably be my #3 overall pick ahead of MJD.  Unlike Matt Forte, Ray Rice can make his own holes and break long runs.  Forte and Slaton have left me a little gun shy of young running backs coming off big years, but Rice will not disappoint.

Last week I included a little “What to Watch” question with each game. I started to do the same this week, then I realized that I would mostly be watching the same thing in each game — will the team that had a first round bye week exhibit any signs of rust? Especially the passing games that rely on timing and game experience — will the QB’s be throwing behind crossing routes and overthrowing deep posts?

Saturday 4:30 EST

Arizona @ New Orleans

What’s left to say about Kurt Warner? He’ll occasionally take too many risks against a good pass defense, but then we thought Green Bay was a good pass defense, and he shredded them. Boldin is more likely to play this week, but his presence may actually hurt the available fantasy value here — Breaston and Doucet excelled in Boldin’s absence, but if he plays a significant portion of the game, the looks will be spread out more. Fitzgerald remains a top option. Other than Darren Sharper’s ball-hawking skills, the Saints’ secondary hasn’t been great in the last half of the season, so expect another shootout.

ARI: Warner +1, Fitzgerald +1, Boldin -1, Breaston -1 (+1 if Boldin sits), Doucet 0

The question here, of course, is the same question that applies to any of the teams that enjoyed a Round 1 bye. How rusty will Drew Brees and the Saints’ offense be after taking a full 2 weeks off? The Cardinals defense certainly didn’t shut Aaron Rodgers down, so at least the Saints don’t have a tough matchup. And, those 2 weeks should be enough for players to recover from most minor injuries. Coming in rested and healthy could be a factor against a team that played an overtime game last week.

NO: Brees +1, Colston +1, Meachem +1, Henderson 0, Shockey 0

Saturday 8:15 EST

Baltimore @ Indianapolis

Yeesh. When a team is so committed to (and successful at) running the ball, it makes it hard to rely on their passing game. I think the Colts defense is in much better shape than the Patriots were last week, so I think Flacco will have to pass more than 10 times, but still…it’s clear that the Ravens feel no compulsion to throw any more than they absolutely have to. Heap continues to have issues with his back, so I’d avoid him.

BAL: Flacco -2, Mason -2, Heap -2

Tough call here — the Ravens have been putting up excellent defensive numbers for the last half of the season, and repeatedly forced Brady to throw underneath for limited yardage. I don’t expect them to keep Manning in check like that, but it’s at best an average matchup for the Colts, and probably a mild downgrade is more realistic. My feeling is that Ed Reed will spend more time helping cover Wayne and Garcon and that there may be room for Dallas Clark to rack up some yardage.

IND: Manning -1, Wayne -1, Clark 0, Garcon 0, Collie 0

Sunday 1:00 EST

Dallas @ Minnesota

Romo is rolling right now, and unless Jared Allen and the Vikings line can put a lot more pressure on him than the Eagles did, I expect continued success. I was surprised that Witten wasn’t more involved last week. Miles Austin remains the clear #1 option. Roy Williams was decent but he’s too risky to rely on. Don’t forget that Crayton gets a little boost in return yardage leagues.

DAL: Romo +1, Austin +1, Williams 0, Crayton 0, Witten +1

Hard to argue against what the Vikings did in Week 17, but I’ll try — the Giants were getting worse each week and gave up on that game before it even started, and the Dallas defense has been steadily improving. We know that when Favre is unhurried, he can zing it with the best of them. I’m a believer in the Cowboy’s D-line, though, and I expect at least one or two mistakes from Favre. Slight downgrade.

MIN: Favre -1, Rice 0, Berrian -1, Harvin -1, Shiancoe 0

Sunday 4:40 EST

New York Jets @ San Diego

Cotchery isn’t a bad play in PPR formats, but apart from him, there isn’t much here. There’s basically 2 outcomes for Sanchez right now — failure (which looks like 100 yards and 2 or 3 int’s), or success (which looks like 160 yards with 1 TD and no picks). The difference between those 2 matters a lots to the Jets, but the upside is so limited for fantasy purposes that it’s better just staying away. Keller is a long-shot TE option just for his big play ability as evidenced last week, but don’t be surprised at a 2 catch, 28 yard week.

NYJ: Sanchez -1, Cotchery 0, Edwards -1, Keller 0

The unfortunate situation here is that V-Jax may just get erased by Revis. I don’t see any situation that doesn’t involve a serious cut in his production. Fortunately, Rivers still has Gates (who presents a huge matchup problem for the Jets), as well as Floyd, Naanee, Tomlinson, and Sproles. A mild downgrade just for losing V-Jax as a serious weapon, but don’t feel too bad about it.

SD: Rivers -1, Jackson -2, Gates +2, Floyd +1

Before we look at the games, I want to say thanks to Doc for stepping in for 3 weeks while I closed and moved into my first house. Like Pedro Cerrano, you’re in good hands with Doc. Regular season fantasy leagues are over, but there’s a lot of fantasy playoff leagues as well, and if you haven’t joined one yet, be sure to check out our Sporting News playoff league and/or our playoff challenge at NFL.com.

For these playoff games, I’m adding a short “What To Watch” section. I often pick a particular position matchup or aspect of the game that I intend to focus on, to break the habit of just watching the ball on every play. Sometimes the camerawork dictates how successful this endeavor is, but I’ve found it’s a good way to start noticing other parts of the game.

Saturday 4:30 EST

New York Jets @ Cincinnati

Great start to the passing matchups…the Jets and Bengals combined for 63 yards passing last week. Even if you don’t count the sack yardage against the total, it doesn’t crack 100 yards between the two teams. While I expect improved totals from both teams, it’s hard to feel good about this matchup. The Jets won’t be able to run 57 times like last week, so while I can’t recommend Sanchez, there’s at least an opportunity for Cotchery to get some looks. Dustin Keller is affected more by Sanchez’s inconsistent play than the opposing defense.

NYJ: Sanchez -2, Cotchery -1, Edwards -2, Keller -1 (more…)