Once again we are here with our ancient 2009 data trying to predict what will happen in 2010. It is flawed. Woe, woe, woe is me! What can we do to stop the total breakdown of western civilization?! Well, don’t worry so much for starters. Like with our Run Defense post, we have to take the Pass Defense one as a bit of a nudge here or there and to and fro. Will these numbers make me rank Tom Brady the 32nd QB because he has the toughest schedule against the pass? Nay I say! Will it make me draft Aaron Rodgers in the first round even though that flies right in the face of my religious beliefs? Nay again young sirs and madams. These numbers may help you choose between, say Matt Leinart or Mark Sanchez as your backup. Anyway, lets take a look at some of the stats:
What we have here are the rankings of each teams pass defense schedule based on that post just a few inches down. Then I separated the rankings into the 1st and 2nd half of the season, the full (fantasy) season, and the fantasy playoffs (which are how they are sorted above). Not much pops out at first glance, but we’ll take a look and see what we can find.
Peyton Manning: So yeah, you aren’t going to turn the good Manning down if he falls far enough in your draft, but after we take a look at his playoff schedule it makes you like him even more. He gets the worst pass D in the Titans in week 14 and then the 29th pass D in Jacksonville the week after. In the final week he gets the Cardinals, but maybe the Colts have things wrapped up and he plays a half, well, what possible backup has a good matchup in week 16 and won’t be resting players? That’s right, Chad Henne and Matt Cassel both have nice matchups; the Lions and Titans disrespectively, and as an added bonus Cassel has Jacksonville during Manning’s bye.
Ben Roethlisberger: I’ve been liking him as a backup this season, but he truly has a horrible fantasy playoff schedule, with the Bengals, Jets and Panthers weeks 14-16. I am starting to wane on my backup love for him. And of course the easiest part of his schedule happens while he’s relaxing in the hot tub watching his teammates play on the tee vee.
Kevin Kolb: Amazingly the Eagles have the best overall schedule against the pass. In the ultra competitive NFC east this can be a little misleading of course, but you know Andy Reid and his crazy passing ways, so even the possibility of a little lighter schedule against pass Ds is nice. And if you take a look back at the Rush D post you’ll see that Philly has a tough schedule against the run. Maclin, Jackson and Celek should all get plenty of looks this season.
Steve Smith: The Panther that is, has a nice schedule which boosts my love for him a little more, which was already pretty high. Moore should stabilize the QB situation and the amazing running game will give Smith a good chance to return to form this season. He’s a guy I am targeting in my drafts.
Donovan McNabb: His schedule starts off tough and eases up a bit. He could be a good trade target mid-season if your QB has hit the skids and McNabb hasn’t looked great. Besides the schedule, he will probably go through some adjustment with the new offense and could be ready to break out just as his schedule gets easier.
Tom Brady: The Pats have the toughest schedule against the pass partially because they get Ruh, Ruh, Ruh, Revis and the Jets and the Bills twice, which constitute the #1 and #2 pass Ds from last season. This is Brady, Moss and Welker and I’m not going to drop them just because of a tough schedule. But when you compare the schedules of Moss to Wayne there is quite a difference and I could see being safe with Wayne.
Chad Henne: He has the same problem as the Pats, the only other team to face both the Jets and Bills twice, but he also has only one star receiver which will make it easier for the opponent to key on. Add to that his inexperience and I think you have to temper expectations a little, but he is probably your backup anyway and hopefully you’ll just be using him in emergencies or as a matchup play or as a backup to Aaron Rodgers or or Philip Rivers who both have great schedules and whose byes coincide with the the Dolphins playing the Titans.
Brandon Marshall: See above.
Lee Evans: Buffalo will squander their nice schedule against the pass, but if you are grabbing Lee Evans late you should feel a little better about it with their nice schedule, which includes playing the Jets week 17, bypassing the fantasy season.
Dwayne Bowe: All the news has been good for Bowe early this season and to add to that they get a very nice playoff schedule. Bowe is quickly getting on my radar as someone to queue up early.
Sadly, once again the Rams and Seachickens will probably squander nice schedules with poor QB play. I don’t trust Sam Bradford and Matt Hasselbeck enough to take their schedules too much into account. Last season Hass had an amazingly easy schedule and couldn’t do squat with it.
click the the Borg cube to commence assimilation —