Once again we are here with our ancient 2009 data trying to predict what will happen in 2010.  It is flawed.  Woe, woe, woe is me!  What can we do to stop the total breakdown of western civilization?!  Well, don’t worry so much for starters.  Like with our Run Defense post, we have to take the Pass Defense one as a bit of a nudge here or there and to and fro.  Will these numbers make me rank Tom Brady the 32nd QB because he has the toughest schedule against the pass?  Nay I say!  Will it make me draft Aaron Rodgers in the first round even though that flies right in the face of my religious beliefs?  Nay again young sirs and madams.  These numbers may help you choose between, say Matt Leinart or Mark Sanchez as your backup.  Anyway, lets take a look at some of the stats:

What we have here are the rankings of each teams pass defense schedule based on that post just a few inches down.  Then I separated the rankings into the 1st and 2nd half of the season, the full (fantasy) season, and the fantasy playoffs (which are how they are sorted above).  Not much pops out at first glance, but we’ll take a look and see what we can find.

Peyton Manning: So yeah, you aren’t going to turn the good Manning down if he falls far enough in your draft, but after we take a look at his playoff schedule it makes you like him even more.  He gets the worst pass D in the Titans in week 14 and then the 29th pass D in Jacksonville the week after.  In the final week he gets the Cardinals, but maybe the Colts have things wrapped up and he plays a half, well, what possible backup has a good matchup in week 16 and won’t be resting players?  That’s right, Chad Henne and Matt Cassel both have nice matchups; the Lions and Titans disrespectively, and as an added bonus Cassel has Jacksonville during Manning’s bye.

Ben Roethlisberger: I’ve been liking him as a backup this season, but he truly has a horrible fantasy playoff schedule, with the Bengals, Jets and Panthers weeks 14-16.  I am starting to wane on my backup love for him.  And of course the easiest part of his schedule happens while he’s relaxing in the hot tub watching his teammates play on the tee vee.

Kevin Kolb: Amazingly the Eagles have the best overall schedule against the pass.  In the ultra competitive NFC east this can be a little misleading of course, but you know Andy Reid and his crazy passing ways, so even the possibility of a little lighter schedule against pass Ds is nice.  And if you take a look back at the Rush D post you’ll see that Philly has a tough schedule against the run.  Maclin, Jackson and Celek should all get plenty of looks this season.

Steve Smith: The Panther that is, has a nice schedule which boosts my love for him a little more, which was already pretty high.  Moore should stabilize the QB situation and the amazing running game will give Smith a good chance to return to form this season.  He’s a guy I am targeting in my drafts.

Donovan McNabb: His schedule starts off tough and eases up a bit.  He could be a good trade target mid-season if your QB has hit the skids and McNabb hasn’t looked great.  Besides the schedule, he will probably go through some adjustment with the new offense and could be ready to break out just as his schedule gets easier.

Tom Brady: The Pats have the toughest schedule against the pass partially because they get Ruh, Ruh, Ruh, Revis and the Jets and the Bills twice, which constitute the #1 and #2 pass Ds from last season.  This is Brady, Moss and Welker and I’m not going to drop them just because of a tough schedule.  But when you compare the schedules of Moss to Wayne there is quite a difference and I could see being safe with Wayne.

Chad Henne: He has the same problem as the Pats, the only other team to face both the Jets and Bills twice, but he also has only one star receiver  which will make it easier for the opponent to key on.  Add to that his inexperience and I think you have to temper expectations a little, but he is probably your backup anyway and hopefully you’ll just be using him in emergencies or as a matchup play or as a backup to Aaron Rodgers or or Philip Rivers who both have great schedules and whose byes coincide with the the Dolphins playing the Titans.

Brandon Marshall: See above.

Lee Evans: Buffalo will squander their nice schedule against the pass, but if you are grabbing Lee Evans late you should feel a little better about it with their nice schedule, which includes playing the Jets week 17, bypassing the fantasy season.

Dwayne Bowe: All the news has been good for Bowe early this season and to add to that they get a very nice playoff schedule.  Bowe is quickly getting on my radar as someone to queue up early.

Sadly, once again the Rams and Seachickens will probably squander nice schedules with poor QB play.  I don’t trust Sam Bradford and Matt Hasselbeck enough to take their schedules too much into account.  Last season Hass had an amazingly easy schedule and couldn’t do squat with it.

click the the Borg cube to commence assimilation —

  1. Shane says:
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    10 team PPR keeper league.

    Keep Peterson as a 5th round (last year as a keeper)
    or
    Keep Ray Rice as a 4th round pick (plus 1 more year as a keeper)

  2. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Shane: Wow, interesting dilemma. I think you have to go with Rice in PPR with an added year of eligibility. I actually have Rice ahead of AP in ppr, it’s just hard in practice to stick with it! But I think you should.

  3. Calogero says:
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    Big dilemma for me…I got the terrible, terrible 11th pick. There’s no real obvious choice for me, and I’m fully expecting the top 8 RBs (CJ through Mendenhall) and Andre Johnson to be off the board. Standard non-PPR 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 RB/WR, TE, etc. 4 pts/passing TD.

    Do I:

    1. Snatch Randy Moss at 11 (assuming he’s not taken at 10), even though one out of Wayne/Fitzgerald will assuredly be there at pick 14. I’d then grab whoever is still around from the Greene/Grant/Charles/Mathews/DeAngelo tier at pick 14.

    2. Stretch a little bit and grab Greene, Mathews, Grant or Charles. I’d then take Moss/Wayne/Fitz OR Rodgers if he falls at 14.

    3. Grab Rodgers (assuming he’s not taken at 10). I’d then probably have to take one of the aforementioned RBs at 14.

    Needless to say, I absolutely hate this pick. I have not much separating my rankings of Randy Moss and the Roddy/Austin/Marshall grouping who will likely be available at the end of Round 2 for the jerks who get picks 1-3. I would hate to pick a QB here. I would also hate to have to reach on some of the next tier RBs I listed at this point. But it appears unless a few guys pass on Mendenhall or Andre, it’s what I’ll be stuck with.

    Just FYI, in my mocking experience, the kind of RB/WR available for my 3rd and 4th round picks have been of the PT/Knowshon/J-Stew/Forte and Smith(CAR)/Sidney/Boldin/Crabtree tiers. Any advice would be appreciated.

  4. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Calogero: I would be happy with something like Greene/Wayne coming out of the first 2 rounds. I think there it’s a good idea to come out with a top tier WR and at least an upside top tier RB. Of course the draft will dictate what happens. Since you aren’t getting one of the top 4 RBs I would try to get another top WR and then start stacking up upside RBs so you can play matchups and/or grab a guy that becomes a high end starter. Your WR’s should be stable enough to not have to worry about filling your bench with backups.

  5. Calogero says:
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    Thanks man, good advice. I think a lot of good RB will be out there from rounds 3-8. If this league drafts in a similar pattern as the last 2 years, everyone freaks out if they don’t have 2 RB in the first 3 rounds, so hopefully I can grab a Colston, Jennings, CAR Smith or Sidney Rice (if Favre comes back). If people change their strategy, I might be looking at a Cedric or Beanie, but I seriously doubt it. What would you think about snatching up Knowshon at 35 or 38 if there are no setbacks between now and draft day?

    Sorry for sounding so desperate in my original message, I just did a few mocks and realized I seriously hate the 11th pick this year. It seems that every player I like going into the draft has an ADP that falls somewhere deep within the 22 picks between each set of 2 picks. It seems I’m going to have to settle for guys I’m not crazy about or reach by 10-12 picks for someone I like pretty much every time I’m up.

    Don’t believe me? Go to some ADP lists, adjust for a league-wide devaluation of QBs, and take a gander at the names that’ll be around from 11-14, within a few picks of 35 and 38 and within a few picks of 59 and 62. They are disgusting. I hope you get civilized picks in all your leagues, like 1-4, or anything 7 or less really.

  6. Norx says:
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    Great article and good advice…I also have a late pick (10th) and have been really influenced by grabbing WR’s early with both 1st and 2nd round picks. I have been targeting Austin and Marshall because of their PPR value and then focus on grabbing RB’s in the 3rd and 4th (McCoy, Moreno, J Stewart, P Thomas) and grabbing Kolb as my QB in the 6th and either stacking my RB’s or grabbing my 3rd WR in the 5th….just curious to know what you think of this strategy and if it is worth the risk of missing out on Rodgers and a stud WR in the 1st and 2nd rounds…

    Appreciate the site and looking forward to the season!!

  7. Doc

    Doc says:
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    @Norx: Thanks, I can get behind that strategy wholeheartedly in ppr. I believe the later round RBs have more value in ppr than non, so grabbing them, and a few extra, in later rounds is a good idea.

    Can’t wait for the season either!

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