I’m mixing things up this week and borrowing the format from SAGNOF posts. Here are my DFS thoughts, broken down by tiers. Shout out to Smokey, the creator of the tiers. Todd Gurley is worth buying a salad of any price.
$12 Salads
You know that restaurant that your girlfriend/wife/what-have-you likes to go to that charges, like, $12 for a salad? You don’t love paying $12 for a salad, but it’s worth it for the payoff later.
- Matt Ryan QB, $8300: You saw what Mitch Trubinsky did to this mash unit two weeks ago. It was a bloodbath. The Falcons have an equal, if not better, passing attack to get into this weak secondary. It’s a plus that the Falcon run game has devolved into a middling three-way split, as well.
- Todd Gurley RB, $9500: Does he have a good chance to be a value? No. Will it matter if he scores multiple TDs? Also no. In a messy week like this, the safety of his role and production can’t be overlooked.
- Julio Jones WR, $8500: The Bucs secondary remains the worst in football. Julio remains a target monster, despite the TD woes. If he does manage to score on top of an inflated yardage total, it makes him a must own to cash.
Donkeycorns
Imagine you’re following a donkey through a desert. Why are you following a donkey? Because he promises you something wonderful and you just need to trust him. When you arrive at your destination, he reveals a horn. This is a Donkeycorn and his gift to you for your trust is solid production.
- Carlos Hyde RB, $6600: Fact- Hyde has one less rushing attempt than Todd Gurley. You can’t overlook that kind of work in the current RB climate. Even when the other Browns backs got snap last week he still posted 17 attempts. His main draw for me is the likelihood of an easy touchdown in a game that could feature more offense than expected.
- John Brown WR, $6300: Smokey Brown leads the league in air yards. That’s no small feat for a WR that almost washed out of the league with injuries. Strong-armed Joe Flacco has enjoyed going after defenses deep with his new WR. That’s the best place to target the Titans. Remember what Kenny Stills did to them in week one?
- Cameron Brate TE, $4500: That’s a great price for a tight end with a shot at a TD. Jameis Winston’s fondness for Brate in the end zone is well documented. With O.J. Howard on the shelf it just makes sense.
Employed
These are the guys that make the market go round. They punch in, punch out. Have a job and are basically just there to collect benny’s so they don’t have to sell insurance in the town they played college ball in.
- Buck Allen RB, $5500: Much to the chagrin of Alex Collins owners, Allen has chipped away at the “lead back’s” role. Fumbles by Collins have paved the way for Allen getting increased red zone and passing work, on top of some regular carries.
- Baker Mayfield QB, $7100: If Mayfield can cut the turnovers down he should post a nice line. The Charger defense has seemed toothless without Joey Bosa. This is a good spot for Baker to make some cake.
- Tyler Boyd WR, $6300: One of the season’s early breakouts, Boyd has earned Andy Dalton’s trust. He’s seen seven-plus targets in the last four games. Boyd offers a great point floor facing a Pittsburgh defense that is likely to focus on A.J. Green.
Brain Freezes
I’m going on a picnic and I’m bringing apples, bananas, and Jay Cutler slushies. Brain freeze! Make it stop! Use the following at your own risk.
- Jameis Winston QB, $7400. Sure, he’s a good price for a QB in a game with a good total. His defense is likely to force his attempts up, as well. We’ve been here before with Winston, though. Requiring him to force the ball downfield is risky. Especially coming off of a suspension prior to their bye week. It can take more than an extra week to get on the same page as the rest of the offense. Coupled with his high ownership, this isn’t the worst fade.
- David Johnson RB, $7500: I’ve been a big fan of discounted DJ. Not this week. He’s dependent on scoring a touchdown against what should still be a very stout run defense in their own building, favored by ten points. The remedial coaching staff doesn’t make me hopeful that he would be targeted heavily in that blowout either.
