ADP Injury Index for 2022 Fantasy Football

Welcome to the first edition of The Fantasy Football ADP Injury Index powered by our new partner SportsMedAnalytics! In this article, we have provided you with a detailed buy/sell injury index based on the current Razzball.com ADP. Below you will find a list of players who are coming off an injury-shortened 2021 season. Not all these players had major injuries, but have complied injuries over the past few seasons.

This article aims to help you decide if you should draft these players based on their current ADP. Later in the article, we have provided overviews and links to more information on some of these players. If you have further questions about the injured players in this article, you can find SportsMedAnalytics on Twitter!  

 

Rank	Player	Pos	Team	Consensus ADP	ADP Injury Index Powered By SportsMedAnalytics
2	Christian McCaffrey	RB	CAR	3.3	Buy
6	Derrick Henry	RB	TEN	7	Buy
9	Dalvin Cook	RB	MIN	8.9	Buy
13	D’Andre Swift	RB	DET	15.8	Buy
16	Deebo Samuel	WR	SF	17.9	Sell
21	Saquon Barkley	RB	NYG	21.9	Buy
23	Leonard Fournette	RB	TB	23	Sell
33	Cam Akers	RB	LAR	36.6	Sell
34	Ezekiel Elliott	RB	DAL	37	Buy
44	Travis Etienne	RB	JAC	46.5	Buy
46	Darren Waller	TE	LV	49.7	Buy
51	J.K. Dobbins	RB	BAL	56.1	Buy w/caution
52	Jerry Jeudy	WR	DEN	56.5	Buy
55	Allen Robinson	WR	LAR	58	Buy
60	Chris Godwin	WR	TB	64.1	Sell
62	Joe Burrow	QB	CIN	65.3	Buy
68	Michael Thomas	WR	NO	70.6	Buy
70	Rashod Bateman	WR	BAL	73.9	Buy
77	DeAndre Hopkins	WR	ARI	81.2	Buy
78	Dak Prescott	QB	DAL	82.4	Buy
108	Robert Woods	WR	TEN	110.7	Sell
120	James Robinson	RB	JAC	129.1	Sell
135	Michael Gallup	WR	DAL	138.5	Sell
145	Julio Jones	WR	TB	147.1	Sell
148	D.J. Chark	WR	DET	151.4	Buy
150	Jameson Williams	WR	DET	151.6	Sell
157	Jameis Winston	QB	NO	157.3	Buy
163	Raheem Mostert	RB	MIA	164.6	Buy
173	Robert Tonyan Jr.	TE	GB	174.1	Sell

 

Player: Christian McCaffrey

Razzball Consensus ADP: 3.5

ADP Buy/Sell: Buy

The last 2 years have been tough for CMC owners. 2021 was derailed by a hamstring and ankle. 2020 was similar but different, with a combination of ankle and shoulder sprains + a glute strain. Fortunately, there’s not a pattern or long-term detriment expected here. RBs miss a lot of time, but he is no higher risk than anyone else.

 

Player: Derrick Henry

Razzball Consensus ADP: 7

ADP Buy/Sell: Buy

Derrick Henry is not at higher risk because of last year’s Jones fracture. Re-injury rates are ~10%, with no long-term performance impact expected. Age + cumulative risk of large volumes of carries are considerations, but there is data to suggest that Henry is part of a “high volume, high durability” group of RBs who can sustain the heavy workloads. Low-medium risk.

 

Player: Dalvin Cook

Razzball Consensus ADP: 8.9

ADP Buy/Sell: Buy

Dalvin Cook’s 2021 injuries aren’t the type to linger. Check out the link above for the full breakdown of Cook’s outlook for 2022.

 

Player: D’Andre Swift

Razzball Consensus ADP: 15.8

ADP Buy/Sell: Buy

D’Andre Swift missed 4 games and was in and out of others in 2021 for injury. However, neither his groin strain nor shoulder sprain is expected to recur. Could be a huge value with many owners not looking into the injury history.

 

Player: Deebo Samuel

Razzball Consensus ADP: 17.9

ADP Buy/Sell: Sell

We’re out on Deebo Samuel, and it has nothing to do with the talent. If he runs the ball as much as ’21, he’s at a 20% increased injury risk compared to other WRs. If he doesn’t, his productivity is unlikely to be the same. Either way, this is a sell.

 

Player: Saquon Barkley

Razzball Consensus ADP: 21.9

ADP Buy/Sell: Buy

ACL data tells us that we should’ve expected a subpar 2021, and the Giants’ 4th worst O-line didn’t make matters better. Now the Giants have upgraded, and Saquon Barkley is poised to bounce back. Big-time buy.

 

Player: Cam Akers

Razzball Consensus ADP: 36.6

ADP Buy/Sell: Sell

Achilles’ tears are brutal, often showing multi-year declines for RBs. Luckily, Cam Akers is young and had the makings of an elite player before the injury. He should get back to pre-injury levels, but it will probably take him until ~Week 8 to do so. Sell.

 

Player: Ezekiel Elliott

Razzball Consensus ADP: 37

ADP Buy/Sell: Buy

Zeke has been consistently near the top of the league in production, but he played through a PCL tear in ’21. As expected, his stats suffered, so his current ADP is equivalent to his prior floor. Probably back to full strength with a favorable bounce-back expected.

 

Player: Travis Etienne

Razzball Consensus ADP: 46.5

ADP Buy/Sell: Buy

Dual-threat ability, strong pre-injury athleticism, and the December Achilles tear for James Robinson all lead to a strong “buy” recommendation. Check out the full breakdown in the link.

 

Player: Darren Waller

Razzball Consensus ADP: 49.7

ADP Buy/Sell: Buy

Waller’s 2021 was impacted by an IT band strain, which isn’t expected to recur or cause durability concerns. His previous two years were tier 1 numbers, and that’s more likely what we should expect in ’22.

Player: J.K. Dobbins

Razzball Consensus ADP: 56.1

ADP Buy/Sell: Buy without w/caution

The SportsMedAnalytics machine-learning algorithm predicts return and performance after injury amongst NFL players. From this, we know that ACL tears average 10 months out for RBs. But Dobbins’ injury was more severe since it involved an additional ligament, the LCL. Combined injuries to ACL + LCL generally take closer to 15 months to get back. Read more now at the link above. 

Player: Jerry Jeudy

Razzball Consensus ADP: 56.5

ADP Buy/Sell: Buy

Jerry Jeudy isn’t any higher risk than anyone else. The high ankle doesn’t carry into ’22, and he otherwise doesn’t have any concerning injury patterns here.

 

Player: Chris Godwin

Razzball Consensus ADP: 64.1

ADP Buy/Sell: Sell

Chris Godwin has elite talent, but the price is too much for a guy who had ACL surgery in January. The average timeline would put his return to the field in mid-October, but the SportsMedAnalytics algorithm projects his production to lag by about a month.

 

Player: Michael Thomas

Razzball Consensus ADP: 70.6

ADP Buy/Sell: Buy

MT this far out from his surgery should be fully recovered. Yes, losing a step is a realistic possibility if you don’t play for almost 2 years, but Thomas at his current price is going closer to his floor than his ceiling.

 

Player: DeAndre Hopkins

Razzball Consensus ADP: 81.2

ADP Buy/Sell: Buy

The MCL injury isn’t like the ACL. This one should be full strength and ready to hit the ground running once he gets back from suspension.

 

Player: James Robinson

Razzball Consensus ADP: 129.1

ADP Buy/Sell: Sell

Check out the link provided above for more details about the James Robinson Injury. 

 

Player: Michael Gallup

Razzball Consensus ADP: 138.5

ADP Buy/Sell: Sell

Check out the link provided above for more details about the Michael Gallup Injury. 

 

Player: Jameis Winston

Razzball Consensus ADP: 157.3

ADP Buy/Sell: Buy

 

Check out the link provided above for more details about the Jameis Winston Injury. 

 

Player: Robert Woods

Razzball Consensus ADP: 110.7

ADP Buy/Sell: Sell

 

Check out the link provided above for more details about the Robert Woods Injury. 

 

Player: Leonard Fournette

Razzball Consensus ADP: 23

ADP Buy/Sell: Sell

 

Check out the link provided above for more details about the Leonard Fournette Injury. 

 

Player: Julio Jones

Razzball Consensus ADP: 147.1

ADP Buy/Sell: Sell

 

Check out the link provided above for more details about the Julio Jones Injury. 

Sources: SportsMedAnalytics and Razzball.com