Welcome to the first edition of The Fantasy Football ADP Injury Index powered by our new partner SportsMedAnalytics! In this article, we have provided you with a detailed buy/sell injury index based on the current Razzball.com ADP. Below you will find a list of players who are coming off an injury-shortened 2021 season. Not all these players had major injuries, but have complied injuries over the past few seasons.

This article aims to help you decide if you should draft these players based on their current ADP. Later in the article, we have provided overviews and links to more information on some of these players. If you have further questions about the injured players in this article, you can find SportsMedAnalytics on Twitter!  

 

Rank Player Pos Team Consensus
ADP
ADP Injury Index
Powered By SportsMedAnalytics
2 Christian McCaffrey RB CAR 3.3 Buy
6 Derrick Henry RB TEN 7 Buy
9 Dalvin Cook RB MIN 8.9 Buy
13 D’Andre Swift RB DET 15.8 Buy
16 Deebo Samuel WR SF 17.9 Sell
21 Saquon Barkley RB NYG 21.9 Buy
23 Leonard Fournette RB TB 23 Sell
33 Cam Akers RB LAR 36.6 Sell
34 Ezekiel Elliott RB DAL 37 Buy
44 Travis Etienne RB JAC 46.5 Buy
46 Darren Waller TE LV 49.7 Buy
51 J.K. Dobbins RB BAL 56.1 Buy w/caution
52 Jerry Jeudy WR DEN 56.5 Buy
55 Allen Robinson WR LAR 58 Buy
60 Chris Godwin WR TB 64.1 Sell
62 Joe Burrow QB CIN 65.3 Buy
68 Michael Thomas WR NO 70.6 Buy
70 Rashod Bateman WR BAL 73.9 Buy
77 DeAndre Hopkins WR ARI 81.2 Buy
78 Dak Prescott QB DAL 82.4 Buy
108 Robert Woods WR TEN 110.7 Sell
120 James Robinson RB JAC 129.1 Sell
135 Michael Gallup WR DAL 138.5 Sell
145 Julio Jones WR TB 147.1 Sell
148 D.J. Chark WR DET 151.4 Buy
150 Jameson Williams WR DET 151.6 Sell
157 Jameis Winston QB NO 157.3 Buy
163 Raheem Mostert RB MIA 164.6 Buy
173 Robert Tonyan Jr. TE GB 174.1 Sell

 

Player: Christian McCaffrey

Razzball Consensus ADP: 3.5

ADP Buy/Sell: Buy

The last 2 years have been tough for CMC owners. 2021 was derailed by a hamstring and ankle. 2020 was similar but different, with a combination of ankle and shoulder sprains + a glute strain. Fortunately, there’s not a pattern or long-term detriment expected here. RBs miss a lot of time, but he is no higher risk than anyone else.

 

Player: Derrick Henry

Razzball Consensus ADP: 7

ADP Buy/Sell: Buy

Derrick Henry is not at higher risk because of last year’s Jones fracture. Re-injury rates are ~10%, with no long-term performance impact expected. Age + cumulative risk of large volumes of carries are considerations, but there is data to suggest that Henry is part of a “high volume, high durability” group of RBs who can sustain the heavy workloads. Low-medium risk.

 

Player: Dalvin Cook

Razzball Consensus ADP: 8.9

ADP Buy/Sell: Buy

Dalvin Cook’s 2021 injuries aren’t the type to linger. Check out the link above for the full breakdown of Cook’s outlook for 2022.

 

Player: D’Andre Swift

Razzball Consensus ADP: 15.8

ADP Buy/Sell: Buy

D’Andre Swift missed 4 games and was in and out of others in 2021 for injury. However, neither his groin strain nor shoulder sprain is expected to recur. Could be a huge value with many owners not looking into the injury history.

 

Player: Deebo Samuel

Razzball Consensus ADP: 17.9

ADP Buy/Sell: Sell

We’re out on Deebo Samuel, and it has nothing to do with the talent. If he runs the ball as much as ’21, he’s at a 20% increased injury risk compared to other WRs. If he doesn’t, his productivity is unlikely to be the same. Either way, this is a sell.

 

Player: Saquon Barkley

Razzball Consensus ADP: 21.9

ADP Buy/Sell: Buy

ACL data tells us that we should’ve expected a subpar 2021, and the Giants’ 4th worst O-line didn’t make matters better. Now the Giants have upgraded, and Saquon Barkley is poised to bounce back. Big-time buy.

 

Player: Cam Akers

Razzball Consensus ADP: 36.6

ADP Buy/Sell: Sell

Achilles’ tears are brutal, often showing multi-year declines for RBs. Luckily, Cam Akers is young and had the makings of an elite player before the injury. He should get back to pre-injury levels, but it will probably take him until ~Week 8 to do so. Sell.

 

Player: Ezekiel Elliott

Razzball Consensus ADP: 37

ADP Buy/Sell: Buy

Zeke has been consistently near the top of the league in production, but he played through a PCL tear in ’21. As expected, his stats suffered, so his current ADP is equivalent to his prior floor. Probably back to full strength with a favorable bounce-back expected.

 

Player: Travis Etienne

Razzball Consensus ADP: 46.5

ADP Buy/Sell: Buy

Dual-threat ability, strong pre-injury athleticism, and the December Achilles tear for James Robinson all lead to a strong “buy” recommendation. Check out the full breakdown in the link.

 

Player: Darren Waller

Razzball Consensus ADP: 49.7

ADP Buy/Sell: Buy

Waller’s 2021 was impacted by an IT band strain, which isn’t expected to recur or cause durability concerns. His previous two years were tier 1 numbers, and that’s more likely what we should expect in ’22.

Player: J.K. Dobbins

Razzball Consensus ADP: 56.1

ADP Buy/Sell: Buy without w/caution

The SportsMedAnalytics machine-learning algorithm predicts return and performance after injury amongst NFL players. From this, we know that ACL tears average 10 months out for RBs. But Dobbins’ injury was more severe since it involved an additional ligament, the LCL. Combined injuries to ACL + LCL generally take closer to 15 months to get back. Read more now at the link above. 

Player: Jerry Jeudy

Razzball Consensus ADP: 56.5

ADP Buy/Sell: Buy

Jerry Jeudy isn’t any higher risk than anyone else. The high ankle doesn’t carry into ’22, and he otherwise doesn’t have any concerning injury patterns here.

 

Player: Chris Godwin

Razzball Consensus ADP: 64.1

ADP Buy/Sell: Sell

Chris Godwin has elite talent, but the price is too much for a guy who had ACL surgery in January. The average timeline would put his return to the field in mid-October, but the SportsMedAnalytics algorithm projects his production to lag by about a month.

 

Player: Michael Thomas

Razzball Consensus ADP: 70.6

ADP Buy/Sell: Buy

MT this far out from his surgery should be fully recovered. Yes, losing a step is a realistic possibility if you don’t play for almost 2 years, but Thomas at his current price is going closer to his floor than his ceiling.

 

Player: DeAndre Hopkins

Razzball Consensus ADP: 81.2

ADP Buy/Sell: Buy

The MCL injury isn’t like the ACL. This one should be full strength and ready to hit the ground running once he gets back from suspension.

 

Player: James Robinson

Razzball Consensus ADP: 129.1

ADP Buy/Sell: Sell

Check out the link provided above for more details about the James Robinson Injury. 

 

Player: Michael Gallup

Razzball Consensus ADP: 138.5

ADP Buy/Sell: Sell

Check out the link provided above for more details about the Michael Gallup Injury. 

 

Player: Jameis Winston

Razzball Consensus ADP: 157.3

ADP Buy/Sell: Buy

 

Check out the link provided above for more details about the Jameis Winston Injury. 

 

Player: Robert Woods

Razzball Consensus ADP: 110.7

ADP Buy/Sell: Sell

 

Check out the link provided above for more details about the Robert Woods Injury. 

 

Player: Leonard Fournette

Razzball Consensus ADP: 23

ADP Buy/Sell: Sell

 

Check out the link provided above for more details about the Leonard Fournette Injury. 

 

Player: Julio Jones

Razzball Consensus ADP: 147.1

ADP Buy/Sell: Sell

 

Check out the link provided above for more details about the Julio Jones Injury. 

Sources: SportsMedAnalytics and Razzball.com

3 Comments
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The Harrow
The Harrow
1 month ago

what is the “link provided above” for the individual players, there isn’t any link in their name in the chart above?

The Harrow
The Harrow
1 month ago
Reply to  The Harrow

sorry, there is a link for their names, but it’s just their razzball player page, not anything specfically about the come back rate or % of risk on their injuries.